Holy Grail

Holy Grail Asian Handicap Analysis

Followers of the Holy Grail system and the subset of highly profitable (bet monkey) tips should hopefully have made a decent amount of profit this season but the swings can still really get to you. We ourselves have yielded just short of a 5% return on our stakes despite rarely going for the best prices and choosing instead to automate on betfair. The selections have formed a huge part of our entries to Cassini’s FTL competition however and these are showing an ROI of over 8% to Pinnacle Sports prices.

Like I said though, there are still poor weeks and the odd losing month and it can be mentally challenging to follow. We are aware that not everyone starts following the Holy Grail at the same point in time and that people may want to increase their stakes following a period of profit too. With the swings potentially big though, how can you do this with confidence?

Well, a few people have contacted us this season to ask whether our selections are profitable using Asian handicaps. This has taken us a while to trial but we finally have some data for you. It should be said that the results are taken from football-data’s most popular handicap on each market which comes from BetBrain. It may be difficult for us to identify which is going to be the most popular in advance but as all these markets are derived from the match odds it we would expect similar results no matter what handicap is selected.

You can see the handicap results for the last 10 seasons below. For our results we have used the best handicap prices recorded but the average prices also shows an excellent return too and there’s a one line summary of the overall data for the average handicap price at the end. The stakes are not too important and these are created using the funds we currently have available and our ad hoc Kelly staking method. What is worth noting is the return on investment percentages.

The beauty of using handicaps instead of match odds is that the losing streaks are much smaller and returns are smoothed out somewhat. No longer would we get the humungous weeks of profit but neither would we endure so many bad spells. This kind of performance is much less volatile and progress is more gradual. This means too that you can increase stakes with a lot more confidence as you know that the losing streak will only be a handful of matches at worst. I think in well over 100 matches in the Premier League this season there have only been a maximum of 3 losses in a row!

We haven’t fully decided on how we’ll be sending the selections for next season yet but this finding is huge progress for the HG. We also have similar results for other European Leagues and after further testing may start to include these in our service too.

Stay tuned!

 

RESULTS FOR COUNTRY: England

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON 2005/06 (MAX): PROF £644.99 STAKE £7,271.39 PERC: 108.15% CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON 2005/06 (MAX): PROF £1,109.99 STAKE £9,414.70 PERC: 110.55% ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE SEASON 2005/06 (MAX): PROF £1,794.87 STAKE £9,166.46 PERC: 116.37% ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO SEASON 2005/06 (MAX): PROF £787.77 STAKE £6,842.24 PERC: 110.32% ENGLISH CONFERENCE PREMIER SEASON 2005/06 (MAX): PROF £963.24 STAKE £5,261.20 PERC: 115.48%
ENGLAND SEASON 2005/06 (MAX): PROF £5,300.87 STAKE £37,955.99 PERC: 112.25%

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON 2006/07 (MAX): PROF £1,202.64 STAKE £6,148.49 PERC: 116.36% CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON 2006/07 (MAX): PROF £722.53 STAKE £6,847.03 PERC: 109.55% ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE SEASON 2006/07 (MAX): PROF £974.76 STAKE £7,733.00 PERC: 111.19% ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO SEASON 2006/07 (MAX): PROF £933.85 STAKE £5,002.85 PERC: 115.73% ENGLISH CONFERENCE PREMIER SEASON 2006/07 (MAX): PROF £801.90 STAKE £5,302.99 PERC: 113.14%
ENGLAND SEASON 2006/07 (MAX): PROF £4,635.67 STAKE £31,034.36 PERC: 113.00%

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON 2007/08 (MAX): PROF £-1.21 STAKE £7,317.59 PERC: 99.98% CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON 2007/08 (MAX): PROF £1,431.12 STAKE £6,087.87 PERC: 119.03% ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE SEASON 2007/08 (MAX): PROF £790.14 STAKE £7,005.40 PERC: 110.14% ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO SEASON 2007/08 (MAX): PROF £644.52 STAKE £5,589.90 PERC: 110.34% ENGLISH CONFERENCE PREMIER SEASON 2007/08 (MAX): PROF £1,100.75 STAKE £6,685.65 PERC: 114.14%
ENGLAND SEASON 2007/08 (MAX): PROF £3,965.32 STAKE £32,686.41 PERC: 110.82%

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON 2008/09 (MAX): PROF £105.10 STAKE £7,845.11 PERC: 101.32% CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON 2008/09 (MAX): PROF £1,631.58 STAKE £11,068.67 PERC: 112.85% ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE SEASON 2008/09 (MAX): PROF £1,182.20 STAKE £7,043.09 PERC: 114.37% ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO SEASON 2008/09 (MAX): PROF £761.61 STAKE £7,675.50 PERC: 109.03% ENGLISH CONFERENCE PREMIER SEASON 2008/09 (MAX): PROF £899.84 STAKE £5,538.96 PERC: 113.98%
ENGLAND SEASON 2008/09 (MAX): PROF £4,580.33 STAKE £39,171.33 PERC: 110.47%

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON 2009/10 (MAX): PROF £803.97 STAKE £7,536.82 PERC: 109.64% CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON 2009/10 (MAX): PROF £-135.46 STAKE £7,975.34 PERC: 98.27% ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE SEASON 2009/10 (MAX): PROF £-175.68 STAKE £7,035.63 PERC: 97.44% ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO SEASON 2009/10 (MAX): PROF £1,757.31 STAKE £6,445.42 PERC: 121.42% ENGLISH CONFERENCE PREMIER SEASON 2009/10 (MAX): PROF £618.10 STAKE £4,532.80 PERC: 112.00% ENGLAND SEASON 2009/10 (MAX): PROF £2,868.23 STAKE £33,526.01 PERC: 107.88%

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON 2010/11 (MAX): PROF £981.48 STAKE £8,016.06 PERC: 110.91% CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON 2010/11 (MAX): PROF £520.18 STAKE £7,310.46 PERC: 106.64% ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE SEASON 2010/11 (MAX): PROF £690.47 STAKE £8,956.31 PERC: 107.16% ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO SEASON 2010/11 (MAX): PROF £419.02 STAKE £8,511.02 PERC: 104.69% ENGLISH CONFERENCE PREMIER SEASON 2010/11 (MAX): PROF £1,381.94 STAKE £5,321.93 PERC: 120.61%
ENGLAND SEASON 2010/11 (MAX): PROF £3,993.09 STAKE £38,115.78 PERC: 109.48%

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON 2011/12 (MAX): PROF £766.81 STAKE £8,300.60 PERC: 108.46% CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON 2011/12 (MAX): PROF £1,598.95 STAKE £9,357.57 PERC: 114.59% ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE SEASON 2011/12 (MAX): PROF £1,320.79 STAKE £9,487.74 PERC: 112.22% ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO SEASON 2011/12 (MAX): PROF £1,530.25 STAKE £9,160.13 PERC: 114.31% ENGLISH CONFERENCE PREMIER SEASON 2011/12 (MAX): PROF £844.15 STAKE £8,300.92 PERC: 109.23%
ENGLAND SEASON 2011/12 (MAX): PROF £6,060.95 STAKE £44,606.96 PERC: 111.96%

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON 2012/13 (MAX): PROF £1,477.95 STAKE £7,847.46 PERC: 115.85% CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON 2012/13 (MAX): PROF £1,871.98 STAKE £10,692.80 PERC: 114.90% ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE SEASON 2012/13 (MAX): PROF £2,058.07 STAKE £10,315.85 PERC: 116.63% ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO SEASON 2012/13 (MAX): PROF £1,989.92 STAKE £9,460.66 PERC: 117.38% ENGLISH CONFERENCE PREMIER SEASON 2012/13 (MAX): PROF £680.21 STAKE £9,563.17 PERC: 106.64%
ENGLAND SEASON 2012/13 (MAX): PROF £8,078.12 STAKE £47,879.94 PERC: 114.44%

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON 2013/14 (MAX): PROF £-364.96 STAKE £9,430.65 PERC: 95.97% CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON 2013/14 (MAX): PROF £1,086.99 STAKE £11,489.49 PERC: 108.64% ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE SEASON 2013/14 (MAX): PROF £59.88 STAKE £10,150.91 PERC: 100.59% ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO SEASON 2013/14 (MAX): PROF £1,615.64 STAKE £10,795.17 PERC: 113.02% ENGLISH CONFERENCE PREMIER SEASON 2013/14 (MAX): PROF £1,951.19 STAKE £11,253.76 PERC: 114.78%
ENGLAND SEASON 2013/14 (MAX): PROF £4,348.74 STAKE £53,119.98 PERC: 107.57%

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON 2014/15 (MAX): PROF £1,273.82 STAKE £16,109.74 PERC: 107.33% CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON 2014/15 (MAX): PROF £1,828.57 STAKE £20,801.42 PERC: 108.08% ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE SEASON 2014/15 (MAX): PROF £3,900.63 STAKE £20,816.93 PERC: 115.78% ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO SEASON 2014/15 (MAX): PROF £2,060.31 STAKE £18,441.58 PERC: 110.05% ENGLISH CONFERENCE PREMIER SEASON 2014/15 (MAX): PROF £1,956.66 STAKE £19,313.04 PERC: 109.20%
ENGLAND SEASON 2014/15 (MAX): PROF £11,019.98 STAKE £95,482.71 PERC: 110.35%
TOTAL ENGLAND (MAX): PROF: £54,851.30 STAKE: £453,579.47 PERC: 110.79%

TOTAL ENGLAND (AVG): PROF: £41,515.07 STAKE: £453,579.47 PERC: 108.39%

 

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Current month ye@r day *