This Saturday sees the Gennady Golovkin v Canelo (Saul Alvarez) rematch finally arrive, a full year after the first fight. All the pros and so-called experts that I’ve seen interviewed believe Golovkin won the first fight comfortably, despite the draw decision that was given. I personally wasn’t as convinced and a GGG win this time isn’t quite the formality most would lead you to believe. I’m not even sure a lot of them watched the first fight to be honest.
Golovkin was the obvious aggressor in that first encounter but he struggled to land so many of the punches he threw. The technical work by Canelo at times was superb. His defense was as tight as it can be against a fighter who keeps coming forward like GGG and he counted brilliantly. I think Canelo produced the more impressive work and landed the cleaner shots. I felt he fought a very intelligent fight.
GGG is one hell of a tough fighter though and he’s also extremely good at not showing that he’s hurt as we saw that against Kell Brook. Canelo is a bigger puncher than Brook though and he definitely troubled triple G in that first fight.
The compubox stats showed Canelo as being the more accurate boxer, landing 33.5% of his 505 punches to GGG’s 31% (of 703). It’s not just about quantity and we must remember that boxing is an art form with technical skill to be rewarded as much as aggression. That said, it was actually Canelo who landed more power punches anyhow as you can see below. GGG was looking to knock Canelo out but he couldn’t land anywhere near enough clean, meaningful shots on him.
— Andreas Hale (@AndreasHale) September 17, 2017
My major concern this time around though is that if the last performance wasn’t enough for Canelo to take the decision then it’s going to take an awful lot to beat Golovkin in a decisive enough way. We know that the undefeated Kazakh is extremely unlikely to be knocked out and the pressure he’ll put on Alvarez is likely to be enough once again. Perhaps GGG’s work will be smarter this time around too.
Golovkin is a touch short on the winner market odds but there’s not a great betting angle in this one for me and a points decision for GGG as the most likely outcome looks fair enough on balance.
The fight is live on BT Sport on Saturday September 15th and is taking place in Las Vegas. So if you’re in the UK you’ll need to stay up until 4am to watch it.