After riding the crest of a wave for the last few weeks with In play tennis trading again along came the Serena Williams v Virginie Razzano match. Yes I know if you didn’t make money on this one you should give up (ffs) but in reality this match was incredibly unusual and it was difficult to trade as there were so many factors to consider when it was all happening so fast. First of all Serena started as a 1.01 favourite which give or take a tick or two was fair enough for a multiple champion and former winner at RG that has never lost in the first round of a slam and until today had been in great form. Yes the signs were there in hindsight but we’ve all seen Serena tank a set, get angry and power through. Then we had the 5-1 lead in the tie-break, the tears of Serena, the 5-0 lead, Razzano’s cramp and shrieks and then the comeback, followed by double faults and multiple match points. I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed a match like it. . I was of the viewpoint that she never should have been favourite here at RG after seeing her struggle through some of her clay matches but never expected an upset here not even at 1 set all.
Make no mistake what happened yesterday was extremely rare. When you are watching such a match it’s hard to know when to enter the market. In a lot of matches where Serena goes 1-1 she’ll run away with the third so when I took her on at 1.17 hoping for a quick trade at about 1.05 which if she had taken even a small lead in the first set we would have easily seen, never did I imagine she would go 5-0 down! In hindsight my entry point was too early and I should have given it a bit of time particularly after seeing Serena in tears but let’s not forget this was a tough game but one which she was 2 points away from winning in straight sets. It cost me a fair whack of recent small profits trading, bringing my ’hourly rate’ down somewhat. Many people think trading is a piece of piss but there’s always one of these round the corner and they are hard to take after hours of hard work building up small green books.
So yet again I come back to the old dilemma of mine on whether the usually more lucrative in play trading is worth the trade-off in terms of time spent doing it. I have probably traded too much in the last few days as I suspect many will do because of the excitement of a slam. After the first day I found it a little boring, with little market fluctuation and very little opportunities and when they came along in Azarenka and Serena’s matches, I think I was caught a little off guard and got in far too early.
So it’s back to the drawing board for me in the quest to find the perfect betting solution that optimises money-making whilst fitting in with my desired lifestyle. I now know that trading up to 10 hours a day doesn’t fit in with it and so it’s time to change tactics again. Now that I’m getting good at pricing up markets properly, I think it might be time to revisit pre-match Kelly staking once again….
On a positive note my dutch of Nadal and Djokovic for a 20% return looks pretty good still and the 7.8 on Sharapova pretty huge now Serena is out. My tournament preview on the previous post actually reads pretty well with how the tournament is unfolding so far.