Betting Advice and Analysis

Expected goals pros and cons

Things that are good about expected goals (xG):

  1. They can help show who deserved to win a match when the score line doesn’t
  2. They are a step up from using more basic data like shots to analyse team performance and the likelihood of future results
  3. They help eliminate luck from analysis
  4. They help us to scrutinise and compare player performance more precisely

 

Things not so good or limitations of expected goals:

  1. People watching the match can often deduce what expected goals data does and sometimes more accurately
  2. The exact expected goal value is down to interpretation and can vary a lot
  3. The expected goal value can be misleading due to the quality of the players involved in the opportunities
  4. Game state (e.g. team winning 3-0 at half time) can affect the desire/necessity to create further chances, potentially skewing the overall data

 

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