The 2017 Breeders Cup begins on Friday 3rd November and we have four Grade 1 races:
9.25 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (2yo Fillies) 1 Mile
10.05 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile (3yo plus) 1 Mile
10.50 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (2yo Colts and Geldings) 1 Mile
11.35 Breeders Cup Distaff (3yo plus Fillies and Mares) 1 Mile 1 Furlong
The European horses mostly target the turf races so that is where we will probably get most of our winners.
The first Breeders Cup race the 9.25 is for Juvenile fillies on the turf which was first run in 2008. Now you would think this is a good opportunity for the Europeans but out of the 9 races we have won it on 2 occasions with the others going to the home team. The winning-most trainer is Chad Brown who has won this on 3 occasions and this year he is represented by Rushing Fall and Significant Form, the former being out of a sire who has won this previously with one of his progeny, More Than Real in 2010.
The Europeans have a strong hand in this with Happily, September and Juliet Capulet. Out of those I personally fancy September who will relish the quicker surface, although stable jockey Moore has opted for Happily.
I think the winner will come from one of the first five in the betting and I think this will go to Europe.
1st September 2nd Happily 3rd Rushing Fall
The second Breeders Cup race the 10.05 is the Dirt Mile and since its inception in 2007 has been won by the home team and that will continue mainly because the Europeans don’t target this race. It doesn’t look like a very strong renewal and I will be very surprised if it doesn’t go to either the Bob Baffert trained Mor Spirit or John Sadlers representative Accelerate. Although there are others close up in the betting.
1st Mor Spirit 2nd Accelerate 3rd Practical Joke
The third Breeders Cup race is the 10.50 and that is the Juvenile Colts and Geldings and since its inception in 2007 as been won six times by the Europeans and four by the home team. The winning-most trainer in this race is Aiden O Brien who relies on Mendelssohn who is a son of Scat Daddy so should relish the fast conditions. Charlie Appleby who has won this in the past also has a good chance with Masar. Although personally I don’t think the crop of juveniles over here are very strong and think we may be in for a slight shock with a home winner which may come from either Catholic Boy, Untamed Domain or Voting Control. I will opt for Catholic Boy who is a son of More Than Ready
1st Catholic Boy 2nd Untamed Domain 3rd Masar
The final Breeders Cup race for Friday is the 11.35 the Distaff which is another race only contested by the home team and its been like that since it began in 1984. The winning-most trainer is William Mott who has a great chance this year with Elate, an improving 3yo filly. The winning-most jockey is Mike Smith who has a good chance with Kentucky Oaks winner Abel Tasman but they have two older mares to contend with in Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled. I favour the latter who beat Songbird on its last run
1st Forever Unbridled 2nd Elate 3rd Stellar Wind
These are my thoughts for Friday good luck everyone.