Another poor week this week and the ROI for the season is now -33%. Two pretty bad losing weeks in a row and there are a couple of betting lessons here for anyone that’s following these tips. This bad streak shows you just what can happen, no matter how good your record is and how much profit you have made. Results like these emphasise the importance of risking a small percentage of your overall funds on each bet. I recommend using 1% of your funds for betting and 5% for trading. As we all know Kelly is the optimal strategy but I’d only used this if you have a proven record historically and a measured approach to your betting, otherwise you’ll be prone to over staking and overestimating your edge.
It’s also important to note that just because you’ve made a profit in the past doesn’t guarantee anything in the future, far from it. “Past performance is no indicator of future performance” or something like that is the disclaimer normally quoted. Markets can change, teams change too whilst your ideas about them may/may not. There are a lot of factors to consider but keep calm as they say and ride the storm.
There are a lot of draws happening at the moment. Fulham in particular seem to be involved in high scoring draws every week and that cannot and will not continue! Yes I’ve emphasised just how good value the draw can be but they’re over performing even for them! As the season goes on, we’ll learn more about the premier league teams and I’m confident of returning to profit for this season soon.