Betting Advice and Analysis

Betting Exchange Comparisons

I’m sure that you are well aware by now that we have an excellent selection of tipsters at BettingTools.co.uk and a very good profit can be made most month if you get on at advised prices with the bookmakers.

The trouble is, this is not always possible and there are a LOT of bets. It can be very difficult and time-consuming to follow. Even if you are able to manage it well, there’s always the chance that one of your bookmakers could limit you or even ban you completely from betting with them.

So, all this got my wondering exactly what is possible for out tips using betfair exchange.

I have used the exchange to follow certain tipsters and managed to automate this via betsender but I’ve never backed them all or continued for a long period. I’ve also not managed to analyse the data in any meaningful way to see how the betfair returns compare to the bookmaker returns listed on the site.

I’ve therefore decided to trial this and ‘follow the board’ as closely as possible.

Here are some important points to show how and who I’m following:

1) I am following ALL horse racing tipsters on UK and Ireland Horse Racing markets only. No ANTE POST bets will be included but I will also be following Andy Holding, Pricewise and Hugh Taylor, at least to begin with. Their records are no longer used for the site calculations but I am hopeful they will show a profit long-term.

2) I am following the football tipster profiles The Holy Grail, Bet Monkey and Footy Movers. I did want to include Alcuni, Cold Gold and AntaeusTen (tennis) but it’s too difficult to program these in automatically, with many tips on obscure markets.

3) I am backing tips immediately when they become available IF the price on betfair is the same as what’s been listed/advised. If that price isn’t available then I’m going to assume that the market isn’t well enough formed and I will trigger a bet at betfair start price. As I’m using my own code I can do this but if you were using betsender, I would advise you to back all straight away. It’s possible that this could work out better anyway.

4) I am starting with a bank of £1000.

5) The stakes will all be £2 each and win only. Ideally I’d use £10 to match the site but backing EVERY tip will result in some big down swings and currently I don’t have an accurate idea of how big they might be.

For comparison purposes I will times the betfair exchange profit/loss by 5 so we can get a true equivalent figure. I am backing win only because each way betting is problematic on betfair but also because my data tells me this will be more profitable long-term.

6) Obviously there is only so much liquidity on betfair and we can’t guarantee to get a big stake matched but we will definitely be safe with £10. Obviously there could be an issue if lots were following or we decided to increase stakes but you can un into similar problems with bookies too.

The Market Movers profile is becoming increasingly popular and nobody has reported problems getting on at very close to advised odds so far. I haven’t yet decided what we would do if bets were partially matched and we’ll address this at a later time.

7) I will compare the figure from the site using exactly the same bets as the ones I’ve bet on by running a separate query.

8) I will run this experiment for the whole of October.

With all this in mind, the results are now in for Day 1 of October!

Quite honestly, I don’t think we’ve ever had a better start to a month and we certainly chose a great day to start.

The profit from the board is: £666.60

The equivalent profit I managed on the exchange (post commission) is: £378.35

*Remember that all tips are compared as if they were win only

 

Not a great result for the exchange despite a very impressive return. You can see that the profit from the bookies is nearly double that of the exchange.

Again I’m not jumping to any conclusions this early on particularly as I know that the odds on winners over 20/1 can have much bigger odds on the exchange. The epic 100/1 winner on Quinteo just a few days ago was backed by myself at 138/1 on betfair exchange.

Important things to point out are that I missed one of the foot movers winners (won’t bore you with the details of why but it was at odds of over 2/1 on Bristol Rovers). BV’s Easy Road tip from midnight last night were at odd unavailable at Betfair and I triggered a betfair SP bet.

Two significant non-runners and lots of money coming in, meant the start price of 4/1 was significantly lower than what I would have got had I triggered the bet when BV posted, even considering the non-runners.

As I said earlier it may work out better to trigger all bets immediately or even look at taking odds if they are 90-95% as good as those listed. I have however committed to this method for this month and there were other bets where the start price was a fair bit bigger too so I’m not going to make rash judgements just yet.

Obviously commission accounts for a fair whack but that can’t explain the full difference by far.

In the next couple of days I will look at a comparison of the prices achieved on all today’s individual winners and try to determine exactly where we are losing out.

betfair-pl-01-oct-2016

 

 

 

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Dynamite21

    October 2, 2016 at 7:58 am

    (my comments)
    Brian

    you could consider “taking the money and running” if the profit is eye wateringly good. That could be the top of the market for the current period. (or maybe reduce stakes).

    Over time you can develop a feel for this using your data. Create a big picture and stay on mission.

    D21

  2. Brian

    October 2, 2016 at 2:12 pm

    I have considered such an approach before D21 but trying to guess what might happen next can be a dangerous game.

    I’ve had periods where I just can’t stop winning and have expected runs to come to an end.

    When backing at value winner often come in clusters but how do you ever know here these clusters will come?

    If you have any specific suggetsions I’d be interested to know. Perhaps you can show us how it’s done.

  3. Dynamite21

    October 2, 2016 at 6:43 pm

    Hi Brian

    i am just theoring. Any intelligent person knows it’s not realistic to create anything worthwhile from a standing start. Plus one person vs (the rest of the world) is tough.

    My observation of the tipping table is that it’s goes through phases when it goes “OFF THE SCALE” good. My comment is based around the idea that it would be greedy and fanciful to think this will continue in the near at hand future.

    At this point you could half the stake. If this results in a loss saving or a continued profit then a contingency/slush fund could be generated. This could be used to increase the stake after a BAD trot.

    The eventual upturn can then ridden to a profitable outcome. Thus evening out the peaks and troughs.

    It’s paramount to create a “big picture” and mission reference points. I suggest 30pts a month on a boringly regular basis would be close to the optimum target performance. WOW!

    In the best “Dragons Den” parlance. It’s got to be reliably scalable to make the huge bucks. btw Why is more important than What.

    ps just a bunch of primary ideas…

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