Betting Advice and Analysis

Best Time to Bet

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts getting value and the best odds if crucial to betting and it got me thinking when is the best time to get the best odds with your bookmaker of choice. So I checked the prices of the premier league selections and what the overround was on Thursday and then again right before kick off on Saturday. Obviously there is not going to be a hard and fast rule where everything changes the same way as each individual market has its own team news, injuries etc. but I wanted to see if there were any general patterns.
The overround started at around 102.5 for each game on Thursday and by Saturday it was less than 102 on more than half the matches and all were smaller than they were on Thursday. This would lead you to think that ‘right before the off is the best time to bet as the market as a whole is more accurate. However, the odds on selections had decreased and the big priced aways, underdogs and draws had either stayed the same or increased in price. So it seems that if you plan on betting on what you suspect is a popular low priced favourite then it’s imperative to get the bet on as soon as possible and if you think an outsider has a better chance than others will probably suspect then wait until right before the off.
This might seem obvious to most as the odds will be adjusted to the weight of money already placed by punters and not the actual perceived chances but it’s something I have never really tried to take advantage of and it’s another weapon in our armoury that can help us profit form betting. I think the reason the overround gets smaller closer to the off is because all team information but also where they have already taken a decent amount and can lay at odds to reflect what they have taken so far, usually on favourites at shorter prices than the real chance if them winning.
On to results then and it’s been a pretty dismal weekend for me. The tip of the day has had a record 6 losses in a row which has hit me pretty hard and the Prem Selections made a small loss of 12.22% this week. I said there’d be more draws and home wins and although I did manage to land 2 of the draws my percentages on the home wins were clearly still not generous enough. I will again keep this in mind next week but it’s a fine line because most of my profits have come from landing the unexpected and one week’s loss does by no means mean my percentages were incorrect.
For those of you wondering how my in play trading has gotten on since my Eureka moment, I am reporting mixed findings. Leaving value bets to run has certainly made me more profit. I backed several low priced favs a set down last week and let value take its course where previously I would have traded out. On the other hand making lots of value bets is certainly more stressful and there are times where fixed staking doesn’t make sense. An example of this is when I feel a favourite’s price has bottomed out far too early and there is plenty of time for the opponent to get back in. In this case I’m anticipating that the odds will likely change in my favour and not necessarily that the price is incorrect and so when it happens it makes sense to trade out for less than my fixed stake because the favourite will likely still win and I want some of my green on them!
Sometimes trading is about pre-empting fluctuations and you can do this without finding inaccurate prices. In fact as a whole most 1.1’s probably do win 9 times out of 10 in the long run but the course each takes will be very different. You also have to consider that it’s difficult to find the time to trade 100 matches so even though letting a lay bet on the fav will provide more profit in the long run when it is you are going to be able to trade 100 matches can be pretty uncertain. There is no perfect strategy in trading but some consistency certainly helps e.g. your initial stake but perhaps I am guilty of trying to make my strategy too rigid. Anyhow here is the updated weekly and monthly prem selections summary:
Weekly Totals
Week
Units staked
P/L
ROI
1
100
49.44
49.44%
2
100
54.41
54.41%
3
90
-43.21
-48.01%
4
100
15.03
15.03%
5
100
-9.11
-9.11%
6
70
-11.34
-16.19%
7
100
15.50
15.50%
8
90
-14.70
-16.33%
9
90
40.60
45.11%
10
100
-13.00
-13.00%
11
100
29.50
29.50%
12
80
42.70
53.38%
13
100
147.00
147.00%
14
30
-14.30
-47.67%
15
110
84.90
77.18%
16
90
-11.00
-12.22%
TOTAL
1450
362.42
24.99%
Monthly Totals
Month
Units staked
P/L
ROI
January
240
81.64
34.01%
February
320
-26.42
-8.25%
March
450
73.90
16.42%
April
440
233.30
53.02%
May
TOTAL
1450
362.42
24.99%
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