Betting Advice and Analysis

Bad Luck

Last week was not a good week for my Prem profits and possibly the worst week on record. I did say the renaming to ‘Prem Profits’ would jinx them! We are now showing a loss for the season but am I worried, no! We are only 2 weeks in and you know what they say, “form is temporary but class is permanent.” Cliché’s aside all people who bet or tip will have losing spells and weekly results or even monthly results should be of little significance. The whole concept of probability and variance will mean that you will lose some week and months even if you are getting value. If you are making lots of bets though like we are here, then the chances of you losing of 3/6/12 months is much less likely and if you are losing after these periods you should probably assess if you are getting value. The trouble is a lot of people expect their betting bank to keep on hitting new highs and maintaining the faith after dropping down from that new bank high somewhat can be difficult but it’s easier when you remind yourself it’s expected. I read somewhere that if you bet at about evens with a 5% (ish) edge  you should expect you bank to hit a new high only 5% of the time. That’s an incredible 19 out of 20 days below that previous high!
Here is a clip about Billy Walters. He prices up NFL and basketball and is probably one of the world’s biggest punters. Even he has losing streaks. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FAUQ6SFKM
With Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United all winning comfortably, there was no profit from these and you won’t find value long term backing these. We were unlucky in some respect, Fulham snatching a late winner when we had backed the draw and Newcastle going down to ten and then conceding late when we backed them to win. In hindsight I perhaps priced Arsenal too low and they lost out to Norwich. I am very careful about pricing teams low and this is probably the first I have lost out in. I really felt Arsenal had turned the corner and would match up well to a leaky Norwich but perhaps the departure of Van Persie is having more of an effect than I thought. If we look back at their games so far this season we can see Arsenal are better defensively but they are scoring less goals per game and have failed to score on 3 occasions now.  Mis-pricing the odd one or two won’t matter when betting at level stakes as we will get more values than not but results such as this show how difficult betting using Kelly stakes can be.
Finally, a programme I caught on BBC3 last week about probability and bad luck. There’s ‘probably’ not much you fellow betting enthusiasts don’t know but it’s still interesting all the same. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p00yh2rc/Tails_You_Win_The_Science_of_Chance/
This weeks Prem Profits bets:

http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets_2012_2013.xlsx

Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
27-Oct-12
Aston Villa
Norwich
Aston Villa
2.01
27-Oct-12
Arsenal
QPR
Arsenal
1.4
27-Oct-12
Reading
Fulham
Fulham
2.62
27-Oct-12
Stoke
Sunderland
Draw
3.4
27-Oct-12
Wigan
West Ham
West Ham
3.38
27-Oct-12
Man City
Swansea
NONE
28-Oct-12
Everton
Liverpool
Draw
3.36
28-Oct-12
Newcastle
West Brom
West Brom
4
28-Oct-12
Southampton
Tottenham
Tottenham
1.87
28-Oct-12
Chelsea
Man Utd
Chelsea
2.5
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