Author Archives: Brian

November Prizes

November Prizes

tipster-table-november-2016

Well November started pretty well but it certainly didn’t end it! I think it was one of the most difficult months we’ve seen overall but the good news is that if you’ve survived that one, the rest should be a breeze.

There are still plenty of positives to take and the mark of success is making sure that you limit the damage when things are bad and that you put yourself in a position to get lucky. The luck didn’t really come this month but many of the top tipsters still finished with a small profit and in a month like this is as good as a huge amount of winners in my opinion.

BVBiggies returned some whopping winners but being part of a premium subscription, the top prize instead goes to Superted this month who has 125/1 shot White Valiant to thank for his November triumph.

It’s great to see a few old names back in Culvey, The Chief and McGhee and The Chief will have surprised nobody by finishing second in his first month since returning.

Well done to the usual suspects, Eagle, KT, AJ and WhippaSnappa AKA Ron who continue to show some incredible consistency. ApprenticeJo (AJ) deserves a special mention as he has now finished with a profit for an incredible SEVEN months in a row! Thanks too to DaveStevos for chucking in a nice big winner on Shelbe and a place or two.

Season’s greetings to all and I hope Santa brings us all plenty of luck, we deserve it!

I’m really looking forward to 2017 and have plenty of ideas to improve the site. As always keep your suggestions coming and thanks to those who have sent me some already.

 

Tipster Prizes -> Horse Racing 
Superted -> £25
The Chief -> £30
Eagle Eyes -> £20
ApprenticeJo -> £10
DaveStevos -> £10

Tipster Prizes -> Football and Tennis
Alcuni -> £25
ColdGold -> £30
AntaeusTen -> £20





October Prizes

October Prizes

tipster-table-oct-2016

Going to keep this short and sweet as I’ve been struggling for time this last week. Server crashes and email problems have kept me unexpectedly busy. I’m still getting bounce backs from Hotmail, yahoo, live and outlook email addresses so if anyone is using one of those please update it to a gmail or another provider to make sure you receive the tips. I initially thought the site had been hacked but thankfully it turned out not to be the case.

Well done to Kalatari for blowing the competition out of the water in an epic display of tipping. He finished with nearly double the profit of his nearest rival Eagle Eyes.

October was a very strong month and saw one of the best Saturday’s I think we will ever see on the horses. I still can’t quite believe how many winners there were and at huge prices too.

I’m keen to make plans to improve the site further in the coming months so if you have anything you’d like to see or think would make a good addition please let me know. All suggestions welcome no matter how stupid they may be (I may regret saying that).

Thanks to all participants and good luck finding some juicy value over the winter months!

Tipster Prizes -> Horse Racing 
Kalatari -> £50
Eagle Eyes -> £30
ApprenticeJo -> £20
Big Al -> £10
DaveStevos -> £10

Tipster Prizes -> Football and Tennis
ValueBets -> £25

 

 





BV Premium Tipping Service

BV Premium Tipping Service

From the 1st of November I am transitioning both the BVSystemBets and BettorValue profiles into a premium service, offering a horse racing advisory service for investment-minded individuals who seek to make good profits from horse racing without having to study the form book or seek statistical angles to bet themselves.

For the last 20 months or so I have proofed my tips to Betting Tools. There have been highs and there have been lows, but overall I have amassed an impressive level of profit across both BV profiles (BVSystemBets & BettorValue), second only to Tipwise (Ron) overall.

Those who have followed my selections have enjoyed winners across the whole odds spectrum and in particular the BVSystemBets profile has never been in negative territory since day one.

Both profiles show a very good yield, and I aim to increase this considerably over the coming months. In particular I have made it a point to ensure that BV followers can generally get on at the odds I put the selections up at… this sometimes means I have put a lower price than what’s available at times to ensure this is the case and to keep my yield transparent.

The new BV Premium service will include both BVSystemBets and BettorValue selections.

At present the BettorValue profile is locked to 2 selections a day, and this will continue to be the case. Both selections will represent huge value over the tissue odds I generate, allows providing a large profit margin to ensure we care constantly ahead of the game and punishing the bookie at every opportunity.

We don’t win every time, but when we do win it’s at odds that are far greater than they should be. Looking back at my betting history you can see for yourself the gains that can be made, even on a losing run the recovery is relatively quick with 1 or 2 at decent prices getting us right back up there.

My philosophy is that with every loser we are one step closer to a winner. And with every winner we are making such a good profit margin that the insulation against losers becomes immense. That’s not to say we won’t suffer losing runs, but when they do happen we are well prepared for them and any money lost is only on ‘loan’ to the bookie until it comes time to collect with huge interest on the winners.

I am not a conventional tipster, a fact that cannot be argued. In fact it is probably the unconventional nature of my tipping that makes my tips so profitable. I go against the market – it’s a game I play with them and aim to win at every opportunity. Of course it doesn’t always pan out the way I want it to, but overall the market hates what I do because I always come out taking money from them in the end.

I am a firm believer that the only way to make money is to punt value. To seek angles, and statistical advantage that mainstream punters generally ignore. It is this ‘value approach’ that has seen me tipping up horses as big as 100/1 that win and place.

I know there are a lot of BV Followers lurking in the shadows and we have enjoyed a good run over the last 20 months. It’s a natural progression that I take this to the next level and I am hoping that a good few followers have enough faith in me long term to subscribe and continue to benefit from my value and system horse racing tips.

So What Will You Get When You Subscribe?

Firstly, the level of information I provide for each tip will be in depth. At present I ‘summarize’ my thinking in my writeups for the value selections, and provide very little insight into my thinking on the system bets.

However, when you consider that tonight (Thurs, 20th October) I highlighted Lady Bacchus as a big price in the comments on the Betting Tools website at 33/1 and stated she was a huge value bet at 33/1 from a yard that are doing well – and she was only narrowly beaten by a short head into 2nd, that is the sort of insight I will be providing in my write ups exclusively for BV Subscribers. Indeed, while I will put up a selection, in some races I may point out additional value or system plays at big odds for small outlay and big upside if and when they play out like they did tonight.

When you consider tonight I also tipped up a 100/1 shot that was available at 125/1 in places at the time of tipping, and it ran as I expected and hit the frame, paying out more than the 1st and 2nd horse, that is the sort of plays we will be making regularly – and as a BV Subscriber you will be privy to my insight and thinking on races such as this. You didn’t see that horse tipped up anywhere else today at 100/1 e/w and we were on it to hit the frame.

My betting record is full of ‘biggies’. It’s up to you whether you punt them to win or e/w. I provide the information and you get the opportunity to act on it. Like the 100/1 shot we punted right down to 12/1 that duly bolted up recently – as BV Followers you had first run at that price, the market simply followed our lead in that respect.

The fact that I’m different in my approach is my strength. Tipsters are a dime a dozen, but tipsters with an ‘edge’ are a rare commodity. It’s the ‘edge’ I have that ensures we make money!

Who’s the BV Premium Service for?

Well, let me start by first telling you who it’s NOT for. It’s not for punters who want to place a few quid on a selection at big odds and hope for the best. Picking and choosing which one they want to punt and which one they want to ignore. This is just gambling in my mind and overall people who do that rely on luck to a large degree.

Instead, the type of Subscriber I know I want is investment minded. Who knows my record, has confidence in my ability, and simply wants to follow my lead on each bet. There’s no luck involved, each tip has risk calculated, a profit margin built in, and when things fall right the horse wins or places and its job done. I know there are a few BV followers like that out there… you are the ones I want to bring on board with this new service.

You will need a decent size betting bank and be willing to stake at least £10 on each selection, or in the case of multiple selections split stakes to the value of £10.

The sort of person I am looking for will keep a concise betting record, be able to measure performance, and be ready and able to place the bets the minute I advise them to ensure they obtain the same prices I do. I am thinking a limit of 10-15 Subscribers would be good and I have advised Brian to close the doors once that limit has been met, so if you are on board then let Brian know asap and secure your place now.

The sort of subscriber I’m looking for will view this as a business opportunity rather than another opportunity to gamble. It’s serious business, and with every business there is always the assumption that a very decent return on investment will be achieved.

I will be backing every selection I put up with my own cash also. This forces me to ensure we are growing our betting bank together – if you put your faith in me to provide the tips, its only fair I place my money where my mouth is and follow suit.

So What’s the Monthly Outlay?

The monthly subscription is £99.95. That equates to around £3.33 a day (over a 30 day period) and is equivalent to a cup of coffee at Costas each day. Same level of enjoyment, but a far better return on investment!

If you think the monthly subscription is expensive, you are right! It is. And for good reason… I want this to be a premium service in every sense and quality costs. If you baulk at the subscription price the service is not for you and I wish you well.

But, if you are like the gentleman who took my word the 100/1 shot we backed last month was sound, and stuck something like £30 e/w on it based on my advice – then you are surely the sort of person I want to be a part of the BV team in the future and I promise you there will be many more opportunities to profit like that again in the future if you subscribe to my premium service.

Summary

I know I am unconventional. I am like marmite, you either love me or hate me. If you love me you have made money following me, if you hate me you have not followed me and missed out on some very big priced winners.

Love me or hate me, you cannot deny I am good at what I do and you have to respect that the BV insight is different from anything you have seen before. Big headed I am for sure, confidence in my ability to deliver is essential in this game. The minute you lack confidence you are doomed and its a downward spiral from there!

So, if you have enjoyed some nice priced winners, if you love me rather than hate me, and want to ensure you are on the positive side of the betting ledger in the future, then the obvious next step is to subscribe to the BV Premium Service now. Secure your place and get ready for the 1st of November when the journey really begins.

As with all premium tipster accounts, you will have the option of cancelling your subscription at any time. If the service doesn’t make a profit overall (2 profiles combined) in any particular month you can cancel and request a refund for that month. I know Brian does have some restrictions about rejoining if you do cancel and request a refund… but the option is there as a guarantee, and there are not many (if any) tipsters who provide that level of assurance in this day and age.

To subscribe, contact Brian by email at: info@bettingtools.co.uk and he will arrange to get you on board. I am in this for the long term, so only join if you have a winning mindset, can suffer a few losers along the way to betting profits, and know that with each loser we are one step closer to landing the next winner.

Of course the betting record will also continue to be displayed on the Betting Tools website also. There will be ups and downs, it’s still horse racing afterall, and there are no guarantees – other than that my undivided attention is applied to every selection, that value is at the forefront of my mind, and that every bet placed has the odds on our side.

The BV Premium Service starts on the 1st of November, the BV tips will still be accessible to BT subscribers up until then, and when you consider this month alone I have generated +35pts profit so far across both BV profiles the proof I am a good bet to build your betting bank long term.





The gap widens…

The gap widens…

We’re now 3 days into the betfair exchange experiment and profits tailed off as expected from day 1 but the important thing is how results compare. So…

Profit backing the tips win only with the bookies: £651.60

Profit backing with betfair exchange: £210.50

When I started this experiment I by no means expected betafir to come out on top but I did expect the gap to be closer. Currently the profits with bookies are over 3 times that of betfair!

We are both happy and can afford to take a bit of hit for having all our bets placed automatically for us but this is too much and we could easily end up at a big loss come the end of the month if we continue like this.

So, how can we close the gap? The most obvious thing that isn’t working is taking betfair start price when the tipster listed odds aren’t available. Betfair start price may well be better than the bookies start price but it’s still never a value proposition it seems.

I initially decided to use betfair start price to mitigate against markets being ill formed and taking something daft like 1.05 on a horse but the data is showing that overall it will still work out be better to always take the price available when listed.

As you can see from the table below, the difference is prices are huge when Start price is taken. In some cases it won’t be as bad as it looks below because we haven’t taken off the rule 4 reductions from the listed odds but they have been factored into the betfair odds. That said there are too many huge differences even when there are non-runners.

So from now on we’ll revert to placing all bets as soon as they are posted and let’s see if we can close the gap. If we do get any silly early prices we will have to think of another way to mitigate against that, possibly looking at liquidity or checking that they are 90% of the listed pirce. Possibly even avoiding some selections completely.

Selection Tipster Odds inc BOG Betfair Odds Diff. SP Taken
Wind-> Win Tiercel Big Al 4 3.55 -0.45 N
Wind-> Win Geneva Convention Big Al 6 5.59 -0.41 Y
Ponte-> E/w Shouranour Eagle Eyes 21 5.3 -15.7 Y
Wind-> Win Wild Hacked Pinpoint 7 6.84 -0.16 N
Wind-> Win Wild Hacked Market Movers 5.2 5.2 0 N
Sthl-> E/w Ballyrock Roland65 21 21 0 N
Wind-> Win Glorious Forever ApprenticeJo 4.33 2.73 -1.6 Y
Uttox-> Win Dawnieriver Pinpoint 5.5 2.66 -2.84 N
Uttox-> E/w Cobajayisland Hicko65 7.5 7.13 -0.37 N
Hunt-> Win Presenting Lisa Pinpoint 5 4.5 -0.5 Y
Uttox-> E/w Tantamount Hicko65 8.5 9.4 0.9 N
Tottenham v Man City Holy Grail 3.15 3.1 -0.05 N
Tottenham v Man City Footy Movers 3.2 3.15 -0.05 N
Kelso-> Win Makethedifference Pointage 8 6.42 -1.58 Y
Wolv-> Win Mukaabra Big Al 4.5 3.47 -1.03 Y
Wolv-> Win John T Chance Superted 4.5 5.01 0.51 Y
Newm-> Win Elysian Fields BVSystemBets 11 9.99 -1.01 Y
Ascot-> Win Shamshon Superted 9 6.6 -2.4 Y
Ascot-> Win Shamshon ApprenticeJo 7.5 6.6 -0.9 Y
Redc-> Win Father Bertie Pinpoint 7 7.2 0.2 N
Ascot-> Win Easy Road BettorValue 17 5.55 -11.45 Y
Newm-> E/w Ervedya Dynamite21 5 4.96 -0.04 N
Ascot-> Win Librisa Breeze Big Al 6.5 6 -0.5 N
Ascot-> Win Librisa Breeze Market Movers 6 6 0 N
Newm-> Win Sharja Queen Big Al 7 6.24 -0.76 N
Newm-> Win Sharja Queen Pinpoint 7 5.91 -1.09 N
Preston v Aston Villa Holy Grail 3.55 3.6 0.05 N
Bolton v Oxford Holy Grail 4 3.75 -0.25 N
Grimsby v Hartlepool Holy Grail 4.5 4.4 -0.1 N
Wycombe v Exeter Holy Grail 2.56 2.46 -0.1 N
Maidstone v Solihull Holy Grail 4 4 0 N
Preston v Aston Villa Footy Movers 3.15 3.6 0.45 N
Northampton v Bristol Rovers Footy Movers 3.15 3.55 0.4 N
Redc-> Win Thello BVSystemBets 11 9 -2 N
Ascot-> E/w Move Up Eagle Eyes 11 9 -2 N
Ascot-> Win Move Up Superted 8.5 8.6 0.1 N
Ascot-> Win Move Up BVSystemBets 9 9 0 N
Ascot-> Win Move Up Market Movers 7 7 0 N

Overall Difference in prices: -44.73 (Deductions on listed odds not included)

Difference in prices for non-start price bets: -8.66

betfair-exchange-experiment-day-3





100/1 winner and record profits!

100/1 winner and record profits!

tipster-table-september-2016

September will forever be remembered for BettorValue’s (BV) epic 100/1 winner day.

This is not the first time that BettingTools tipsters have found a 100/1 winner and this latest one resulted in September 2016 being the highest ever recorded month at the tipster Table.

Having tipped Quinteo twice under his two different profiles, this 100/1 winner accounted for a large amount of the overall monthly profit but the overall return without this was still very pleasing and the site finished on around 2400 units of profit.

Tipsters Eagle, ApprenticeJo, Pointage and WhippaSnappa all recorded excellent returns and plenty of others finished the right side of breakeven too.

It was another hugely profitable month for the Market Movers after a late flurry of winners and premium service Tipwise finished will in the green again. Over half the tipsters actually finished in profit, with profits far outweighing the losses. What more can we ask?!

There’s been a lot more fruitful betting and racing related discussions between people on the site this month and I think we’re all helping each other to learn more and come up with new ideas which is great. The competition really seems to be spurring the tipsters on.

I myself have started to blog about placing all bets with betfair and how this compares to the returns seen on the board with the bookmakers and I also have other things to contribute for discussion.

Thank you to all for your hard work solving the puzzles and digging out those value selections. Let’s continue to make BettingTools the place for profits!

Prize allocations are below. Please contact me if you’ve never sent me your paypal email address before.

 

Tipster Prizes -> Horse Racing
BVSystemsBets -> £25
BettorValue -> £30
Eagle Eyes -> £20
ApprenticeJo -> £10
Pointage -> £5

Tipster Prizes -> Football and Tennis
ValueBets -> £25
AntaeusTen -> £15
Alcuni -> £10

 

 





Betting Exchange Comparisons

Betting Exchange Comparisons

I’m sure that you are well aware by now that we have an excellent selection of tipsters at BettingTools.co.uk and a very good profit can be made most month if you get on at advised prices with the bookmakers.

The trouble is, this is not always possible and there are a LOT of bets. It can be very difficult and time consuming to follow. Even if you are able to manage it well, there’s always the chance that one of your bookmakers could limit you or even ban you completely from betting with them.

So, all this got my wondering exactly what is possible for out tips using betfair exchange.

I have used the exchange to follow certain tipsters and managed to automate this via betsender but I’ve never backed them all or continued for a long period. I’ve also not managed to analyse the data in any meaningful way to see how the betfair returns compare to the bookmaker returns listed on the site.

I’ve therefore decided to trial this and ‘follow the board’ as closely as possible.

Here are some important points to show how and who I’m following:

1) I am following ALL horse racing tipsters on UK and Ireland Horse Racing markets only. No ANTE POST bets will be included but I will also be following Andy Holding, Pricewise and Hugh Taylor, at least to begin with. Their records are no longer used for the site calculations but I am hopeful they will show a profit long term.

2) I am following the football tipster profiles The Holy Grail, Bet Monkey and Footy Movers. I did want to include Alcuni, Cold Gold and AntaeusTen (tennis) but it’s too difficult to program these in automatically, with many tips on obscure maarkets.

3) I am backing tips immediately when they become available IF the price on betfair is the same as what’s been listed/advised. If that price isn’t available then I’m going to assume that the market isn’t well enough formed and I will trigger a bet at betfair start price. As I’m using my own code I can do this but if you were using betsender, I would advise you to back all straight away. It’s possible that this could work out better anyway.

4) I am starting with a bank of £1000.

5) The stakes will all be £2 each and win only. Ideally I’d use £10 to match the site but backing EVERY tip will result in some big downswings and currently I don’t have an accurate idea of how big they might be.

For comparison purposes I will times the betfair exchange profit/loss by 5 so we can get a true equivalent figure. I am backing win only because each way betting is problematic on betfair but also because my data tells me this will be more profitable long term.

6) Obviously there is only so much liquidity on betfair and we can’t guarantee to get a big stake matched but we will definitely be safe with £10. Obviously there could be an issue if lots were following or we decided to increase stakes but you can un into similar problems with bookies too.

The Market Movers profile is becoming increasingly popular and nobody has reported problems getting on at very close to advised odds so far. I haven’t yet decided what we would do if bets were partially matched and we’ll address this at a later time.

7) I will compare the figure from the site using exactly the same bets as the ones I’ve bet on by running a separate query.

8) I will run this experiment for the whole of October.

With all this in mind, the results are now in for Day 1 of October!

Quite honestly, I don’t think we’ve ever had a better start to a month and we certainly chose a great day to start.

The profit from the board is: £666.60

The equivalent profit I managed on the exchange (post commission) is: £378.35

*Remember that all tips are compared as if they were win only

 

Not a great result for the exchange despite a very impressive return. You can see that the profit from the bookies is nearly double that of the exchange.

Again I’m not jumping to any conclusions this early on particularly as I know that the odds on winners over 20/1 can have much bigger odds on the exchange. The epic 100/1 winner on Quinteo just a few days ago was backed by myself at 138/1 on betfair exchange.

Important things to point out are that I missed one of the foot movers winners (won’t bore you with the details of why but it was at odds of over 2/1 on Bristol Rovers). BV’s Easy Road tip from midnight last night were at odd unavailable at Betfair and I triggered a betfair SP bet.

Two significant non-runners and lots of money coming in, meant the start price of 4/1 was significantly lower than what I would have got had I triggered the bet when BV posted, even considering the non-runners.

As I said earlier it may work out better to trigger all bets immediately or even look at taking odds if they are 90-95% as good as those listed. I have however committed to this method for this month and there were other bets where the start price was a fair bit bigger too so I’m not going to make rash judgements just yet.

Obviously commission accounts for a fair whack but that can’t explain the full difference by far.

In the next couple of days I will look at a comparison of the prices achieved on all today’s individual winners and try to determine exactly where we are losing out.

betfair-pl-01-oct-2016

 

 

 





Finding an edge in betting

Finding an edge in betting

Once you make that all important discovery that it’s value odds that you need to be focussing on and not picking winners, the next stage in ones betting education is to find an edge.

Just how do you do that though with so many expert bookmakers and punters analysing stats in much finer detail then you’ll possibly be able to?

It’s extremely difficult and time consuming to manually price up horses or race every day and so it’s sensible to try and create a system and automate as much as possible.

Initially it’s very tempting to try and cater for all circumstances but this is a mistake. We did this when we first started working on the Holy Grail. We had over 20 different factors we deemed important at the time such as form, goals scored, goals conceded, reputation, league position, team news etc all used to create an overall price.

The trouble with this is that you will at best end up with the market price at best because you’ve factored in everything and probably done a poorer job than the market too.

We then saw the light and decided to focus on just one piece of statistical analysis and analysed in as much detail as possible, better than most others could. When you’ve done that you still have to be able to apply that information and convert it into a price.

It’s important to then test the prices that you’ve created against the market for a long period. It’s tempting to tweak the system to cater for additional scenarios or because one or two horses finished dead last but try to ignore this and focus on the long term. 500 bets is an absolute minimum for determining if a betting system is working.

We have had long term success with the Holy Grail system and despite an unusually disappointing last season, the system is looking good again.

The Holy Grail results from last season highlights another important point that by analysing over too short a period is another potential pitfall. Admittedly, a season is not a short period but in the context of 3 or 4 seasons in which we’ve been running the system and considering the overall profits we can expect last season to be an exception. The margins are very small when betting at log odds and last season’s deficit could have been overcome in a handful of bets.

When you get it wrong or have bad luck by doing things properly and staking sensibly you will lose relatively small at worst but if you win you can win big.

Of course when things do go awry, you have to take caution and assess whether it’s just a blip pr whether something may have changed to make your system unlikely to continue to be profitable. Fortunately, the Holy Grail seems to be back on track and after close analysis last season was a bit different to any other. I mean Leicester City won the league for one thing! Remember too that even bookmakers with their guaranteed edge still have long periods of overall losses in sports betting.

There are horse racing festivals where nearly all favourites romp home and I remember a few years when bookmakers lost millions and were praying for a draw in the Premier league when there was hardly any before Christmas!

The Market Movers profile is another system that make use of an edge. The edge with these is that we are fastest to react to moves on the exchange. We are able to assess the size of the movement, at what odds they are and how much money has been staked to determine whether a selection is likely to hold value. So far we have made over £1500 to £10 stakes in less than 3 months. The ROI of around 20% is almost unheard of.

We could further tweak the system to account for only handicap races, race with more than 8 runners etc etc but we have an edge and by trying to cater for more scenarios we run the risk of eroding it.

That’s not to say that we won’t analyse further and look for patterns and potential improvements but unless something significantly strong over a long period is uncovered, it is very much a case of if it aint broke…

Dynamite21, one of our profitable tipsters from the Tipster Table has started to see the correlation between profitable tipsters and those that specialise somehow. Another brilliant example is the new tipster profile WhippaSnappa who focuses purely on 2 year old horses and who has made over 200 units this month. I also know that one of our other most profitable tipsters focuses almost solely on trainers.

If you want to start improving your betting, our number one tip at BettingTools is to specialise.

The Market Movers profile is another system that make use of an edge. The edge with these is that we are fastest to react to moves on the exchange. We are able to assess the size of the movement, at what odds they are and how much money has been staked to determine whether a selection is likely to hold value. So far we have made over £1500 to £10 stakes in less than 3 months. The ROI of around 20% is almost unheard of.

We could further tweak the system to account for only handicap races, race with more than 8 runners etc etc but we have an edge and by trying to cater for more scenarios we run the risk of eroding it.

That’s not to say that we won’t analyse further and look for patterns and potential improvements but unless something significantly strong over a long period is uncovered, it is very much a case of if it aint broke…

Dynamite, one of our profitable tipsters from the Tipster Table has started to see the correlation between profitable tipsters and those that specialise somehow. Another brilliant example is the new tipster profile WhippaSnappa who focuses purely on 2 year old horses and who has made over 200 units this month. I also know that one of our other most profitable tipsters focuses almost solely on trainers.

If you want to start improving your betting, our number one tip at BettingTools is to specialise.





Eagle Flying High Once Again

Eagle Flying High Once Again

tipster-table-august-2016

Eagle Eyes returned to some of his very best form and he was the star of the show in August. Alongside our very own Market Movers profiles and some very nice totals from Dynamite & co, we’ve seen one of the highest ever recorded total here at the Betting Tools Tipster Table. reducing the number of tipsters we have to our top performers only seems to be working well.

Eagle has always been up there with our best tipsters but he’ll be the first to admit that his form has taken a dive in recent months. In his own words he “re-evaluated his methods and started sticking to better quality races” and it’s paid dividends for him. Sometimes we all need to re-evaluate if things aren’t going well after a patient period.

Being part of the Tipster Table makes you a better tipster and that’s a fact! How do we know? Just ask Andy Holding.

Woodseal, a subscriber to the site (and now firm Betting Tools favourite) was so impressed with our tips this month he donated £100 to the price fund. Thanks again for this Woodseal, it’s very much appreciated.

Tipwise was not the only one back to his bets and subscribers will have been delighted with their huge profits of over 450 units! If you aren’t yet following Tipwise you can sign up here. It’s well worth it particularly because if he doesn’t make a profit you can cancel and request a refund.

The Market Movers had an EVEN stronger month than last and it’s looking like we may have unearthed an absolute gem of a strategy. It has currently generated over 1000 units profits in 6 weeks! A yield of over 20% after over 500 bets is pretty damn solid and another 500 bets and we can be absolutely sure about this I reckon.

Full prizes list is below. As always send me your paypal details if I don’t have them.

AntaeusTen has given some decent tip recently and will be eligible for double prize money from now on as long as the reasoning remains strong.

Thanks as always to all tipsters for taking part and good luck in September.

 

Tipster Prizes -> Horse Racing
Eagle Eyes -> £50 + £50 Woodseal Bonus
Dynamite21 -> £30 + £20 Woodseal Bonus
Pinpoint -> £20 + £10 Woodseal Bonus
Roland -> £10 + £10 Woodseal Bonus
Pointage -> £5 + £10 Woodseal Bonus

Tipster Prizes -> Football and Tennis
Brian Footy -> £50
AntaeusTen -> £15
Miske1x2 -> £10
ColdGold -> £10

 

 





Saturday’s Race Of The Day

Saturday’s Race Of The Day

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes Preview 15.25 York
(Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) (Colts and Geldings)
By Dave Stevos

The Ebor Festival at York is one of the highlights of the UK racing calendar, and there are races to suit the preferences of all types of punters. The Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes has been won by some extremely useful sorts down through the years, and William Haggas is a trainer with a superb record in the race. He took it last year with Ajaya at odds of 7/2, and that was his third win since 2006. Kevin Ryan has also traditionally done well in this race, and he won it in 2012 and 2013. Both trainers are represented today, and you can find out what their prospects are by reading below.

MAIN CONTENDERS

BLUE POINT

Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Odds: 15/8 Bet365

This 2yo colt is two from three over 6f on good to firm ground so far in his short career, his only defeat coming last time out in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood (6f gd/fm). He was beaten only a neck by Mehmas in receipt of 3lb (Intelligence Cross 3L behind), and that is by far the strongest form in this race. Mehmas was beaten only a couple of lengths by Caravaggio in the Coventry, and he went on to win the July Stakes at Newmarket.

Blue Point has been given a rating of 109 for this contest, and that is 4lb higher than his nearest rivals. However, the big worry for supporters of Blue Point is the forecast rain. He has never raced on anything other than good to firm, and there are mixed signals in his pedigree regarding the suitability of easy ground. On all known form he is clearly the one to beat, but if the rain arrives he will be heading into the unknown.

MUBTASIM

Trainer: William Haggas
Jockey: Pat Cosgrave
Odds: 4/1 BetVictor

This son of Arcano brings a 100% record into this race, and he has looked mightily impressive for both those victories. He took a class 4 novice event at Yarmouth on debut (6f gd/fm) by 2L, and he followed up under a 6lb penalty in even more decisive fashion at Haydock (6f gd/fm) last time out. He didn’t beat much on either occasion, but he was visually very impressive. Given his trainer’s record in this race he is automatically entitled to respect, but it is debateable whether the forecast rain will suit this fella.

Arcano’s progeny usually relish a fast racing surface, but there is a glimmer of hope in his pedigree regarding his prospects of handling an ease. His half-brother Charity Plenty has won on soft, and his dam is related to a host of soft ground winners too. However, if the ground is anything other than good to firm this colt will be stepping into the unknown, and his form does not match up to the favourite. Given that Haggas has such a superb record in this race he is sure to be popular, but his odds looks a bit skinny to me and it would be prudent to wait and see what the weather does before backing him at 4/1 with BetVictor.

MOKARRIS

Trainer: Simon Crisford
Jockey: Paul Hanagan
Odds: 9/2 Skybet

This thrice raced son of More Than Ready is two from three so far, his only defeat coming on his second start in the Coventry on soft ground. He has no chance of beating Blue Point on a form line through Mehmas judging by that run, but he did look impressive last time out on quick ground when taking the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes (6f gd/fm) at Newbury by almost 3L.

His debut win came on good to soft at Haydock (6f), so he is the only one of the three market leaders to have proven himself on an easy surface. However, his form is nowhere near as strong as Blue Point’s, and he was well off the pace on his only previous try at this level in the Coventry. Perhaps the ground was a bit too testing for him that day, but even so he was beaten a very long way. He has plenty to prove, and at his current odds of 9/2 with Skybet he is probably best watched.

INTELLIGENCE CROSS

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Seamie Heffernan
Odds: 9/1 William Hill

This son of War Front has been consistent this season, and he has run really well on three of his four starts. He was beaten a head on debut at the Curragh (6f gd/fm) and made amends over the same course and distance (gd/yld) on his next outing. He was quickly stepped up to pattern company next time out, and he ran a cracker to be second behind Mehmas in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket (6f gd/fm). He was only a half-length behind that rival at Newmarket, but the gap widened to over 3L on his last run at Goodwood, when Blue Point was also ahead of him.

However, some horses simply don’t handle the tricky track that is Goodwood, and if he was coming here after the July Stakes there would be no way he would be a 9/1 shot. There is every chance he will be a better horse on a more conventional track like York, and it would be no surprise to see him bounce back to form. Being by War Front he won’t want it soft, but he has won on good to yielding so at least he is proven with a bit of ease in the ground. He looks overpriced, and he could reward each way support at 9/1 with William Hill.

BEST OF THE REST

Although the four market leaders are sure to dominate the betting, there are plenty of other interesting types worth having a look at. Kevin Ryan is a trainer with a superb record in this race, and Dream Of Dreams is a fascinating contender at odds of 12/1 with Paddy Power. He has some serious form in the book, and his run last time out when third behind Medicine Jack and Peace Envoy at the Curragh in the Group 2 Railway Stakes (6f gd/yld) was a cracker. He has been kept to easy ground for all three starts, so the forecast rain won’t bother this son of Dream Ahead. He is of definite each way interest at double figure odds, even if he has a few pounds to find with the favourite.

Ardad can currently be backed at odds of 14/1 with William Hill, and he represents the John Gosden yard. Frankie takes the ride, and those two have a superb record when teaming up this season. This son of Kodiac looked a serious prospect when taking the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot (5f soft). He won his debut on good to firm at Yarmouth (5f) so he is versatile regarding ground. However, he was well behind Intelligence Cross in the July Stakes when stepped up to 6f. He had no excuses that day, and it is hard to see him turning that form around here.

The Last Lion is another that deserves a mention, and this son of Choisir has had a busy season. His trainer Mark Johnston is not afraid to run his horses, and he will be having his seventh start of the season. He has yet to finish out of the first two on any of those seven starts, and he has won two, including a Listed heat at Sandown (5f soft) on his penultimate start. He was a close second in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot (5f soft) and he has shown that he handles all sorts of ground. The big unknown is the trip, but he looks well worth a shot at 6f. If the rain arrives it will enhance his prospects, and at odds of 16/1 with Bet365 he could sneak a place.

CONCLUSION

This year’s Gimcrack Stakes looks a cracking renewal, and a case can be made for quite a few of them. If the ground stays quick then Blue Point has to have a favourite’s chance, but it would be wise to wait and see what the weather does before lumping on at 15/8 with Bet365. Mubtasim is also going to be popular at 4/1 with BetVictor but, just like the favourite, he will be stepping into the unknown if the weather takes a turn for the worse. Of the market leaders Intelligence Cross makes most appeal at the current prices.

The one I like at a nice each way price is Dream Of Dreams. Kevin Ryan has his string in superb form, and this fella won’t mind a drop of rain. He has been put away since his superb effort at the Curragh when he was stepped up to Group 2 level for the first time, and he arrives here a fresher horse than most of his rivals. It would be no surprise if Ryan has had this race in mind for some time, and at his current odds of 12/1 with Paddy Power he is the each way selection for what should be a thrilling race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DREAM OF DREAMS E/W 12/1 Paddy Power

 

 





Betfred Group 2 Hungerford Stakes Preview

Betfred Group 2 Hungerford Stakes Preview

Betfred Group 2 Hungerford Stakes Preview 16.10 Newbury
(Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

This weekend the Channel 4 cameras will be at Ripon and Newbury, and the big pattern race of the day is the Hungerford Stakes at the latter track. This Group 2 has been won by some useful types in the past decade, and no horse older than 4 years old has won it since Balthazar’s Gift came out on top at the grand old age of 6 back in 2009.

He is one of just two winners that returned at double figure prices in the last decade, but only two favourites have obliged in that period. This year’s renewal looks particularly open, and a case can be made for most of the contenders. If you are weighing up a wager on this contest, you should check out our in depth preview below.

CONVEY
 
Trainer: Michael Stoute
Jockey: Pat Smullen
Age: 4yo
Odds: 5/2 Ladbrokes

Michael Stoute has trained three previous winners of this contest, but he hasn’t tasted success since Kieran Fallon steered Chic to victory in 2004. This year he relies on Convey, and this beautifully bred 4yo son of Dansili is near the head of the market at odds of 5/2 with Ladbrokes. That looks a pretty skinny price for a horse that has produced more disappointing runs than good ones.

He has been highly tried during his career but he has never been the most reliable. He won his maiden on debut as he liked, but it took another 7 runs before he managed to get his head back in front. That win came last time out at Ponte (8f gd/fm), but he had to drop down to Listed company.  He was less than half a length behind Home Of The Brave in a Group 3 at Haydock back in May (7f gd) but in truth he always looked held. I am not sure 7f is his best trip, and if it was a mile you would possibly fancy him to turn that form around. He is no certainty to reproduce the form of his last run either, and at his current odds of 5/2 he doesn’t appeal as a solid bet.

DARK EMERALD
 
Trainer: Brendan Powell
Jockey: Adam Kirby
Age: 6yo
Odds: 14/1 Bet365

This 6yo son of Dark Angel has been a wonderful servant to connections. He is a dual handicap winner at the Meydan festival and he has run some big races in defeat at Group level. He has won 8 of his 46 starts, placing on 16 other occasions. He ran a poor race on his final start in Meydan, and he was also poor on his comeback run on home soil. However, it was much more like it last time over course and distance when he found just one too good in a high class handicap off a mark of 106.

Powell has wasted no time in stepping him back up in grade, and he has the look of a lively outsider. He has been placed in a couple of Group 3s and a Group 2 in the last 18 months so he is a proven performer at this level. He has been beaten less than a length on his last two visits to Newbury, so he clearly has an affinity for the track. He is vulnerable to improvers, but there are plenty of holes to pick in most of his rivals and, at odds of 14/1 with Bet365, he could surprise with a big run.

GOLDEN STEPS
 
Trainer: Marco Botti
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Age: 5yo
Odds: 14/1 Sportingbet

This son of Footstepsinthesand has proved to be a reliable performer in handicaps, but he has yet to show that he can mix it at pattern level. He comes here on the back of a smooth success in a 7f handicap at Newmarket off a mark of 99, and Frankie Dettori has been retained for the ride. He has been on board for three of his four career wins, so that has to be viewed as a big positive.

He has only been tried in Listed company on two occasions, and both times he was well beaten. However, one of those races was run on unsuitably soft ground, and the other came at Lingfield on the all-weather. He has always been a top of the ground turf horse, and he could be capable of making his presence felt once the rain stays away. However, he has a lot to prove, and at odds of 14/1 with Sportingbet he is probably best watched.

HOME OF THE BRAVE
 
Trainer: Hugo Palmer
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Age: 4yo
Odds: 6/4 Skybet

Hugo Palmer has had a season to remember, and the classic winning trainer will be looking to add another big race to his CV on Saturday. Home Of The Brave is a warm order for the Hungerford Stakes, and he has already beaten a couple of his rivals here in the not too distant past. He has been ultra-consistent this season, winning his first two starts and then going close behind Dutch Connection on his first try at Group 2 level at Goodwood (7f gd/fm).

He previously beat Convey by less than a half-length over the same 7f trip at Haydock in a Group 2 and he always looked as though he had that rival’s measure. 7f is definitely his optimum trip, and with only 7 runners in the field he could be able to get an easy lead. Good to firm ground will be fine, and he won’t be bothered if there are any showers. He comes off best at the weights, and he is the highest rated horse in the race. It is easy to see why he is the 6/4 favourite with Skybet, and if he has recovered from his exertions at Goodwood he could be hard to peg back.

JALLOTA
 
Trainer: Charles Hills
Jockey: Jamie Spencer
Age: 5yo
Odds: 10/1 Paddy Power

This son of Rock Of Gibraltar is an interesting contender and he has run some huge races for Charlie Hills this season. Apart from his seasonal comeback at Chester he has looked really good, and he has won 2 of his last 4 starts. He is versatile tactically, and though he has yet to win at Group level he is a horse that definitely has the ability to do so.

He hacked up in a 3 runner affair last time out at Haydock (7f soft) but his previous run in France was arguably an even better effort. He was only a length behind Jimmy Two Times at Deauville (7f gd/sft) in a Group 3, and that form was given a big boost in the Group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest, where Jimmy Two Times ran a huge race in third. If Jallota can repeat that run on Saturday, he could go close at odds of 10/1 with Paddy Power.

MARKAZ
 
Trainer: Owen Burrows
Jockey: Paul Hanagan
Age: 4yo
Odds: 6/1 Coral

This 4yo is another son of Dark Angel and he has won 3 of his 17 career starts. He was in the care of the Hills’ Stable up until the start of this season, and he has been revitalised by the move to Owen Burrows’ yard. Two of his three career wins have come at Group 3 level, at Newmarket (7f gd/fm) and at Newcastle on the all-weather over 6f last June.

However, he has been mostly well held when he has been upped to Group 2 company or higher, and he was well behind Home Of The Brave in that Group 2 at Goodwood last time out (7f gd/fm). He did run a huge race behind Limato at Doncaster last season (7f gd), but he was still beaten almost 3L. He looks skinny enough at odds of 6/1 with Coral, and he will likely find a couple too good again.

RICHARD PANKHURST
 
Trainer: John Gosden
Jockey: Robert Havlin
Age: 4yo
Odds: 14/1 BetVictor

Last, but not least, we have the sole representative from a trainer who has won this race a record five times. Richard Pankhurst is the so called second string from owners Godolphin, and they undoubtedly have a much more obvious contender in Home Of The Brave. However, Gosden’s record in this race means this son of Raven’s Pass shouldn’t be overlooked, and he has a couple of pieces of form that would give him a squeak at this level. He looked a horse with bags of talent when he demolished a decent field in a Listed race at Ascot (7f gd/fm) on just his second career start.

He has a win over Dark Emerald in the bag, but he was in receipt of a fair chunk of weight from that rival at Haydock (7f gd/sft). He was only seen once after that win last season, so evidently he must have had some injury issues. He reappeared in a Group 2 at Ascot in June, and he ran an eye-catching race to finish fifth. It was a pleasing return to action, and he had Convey a couple of lengths behind. He ran no race last time out at Goodwood, but that was a hot Group 1 contest and he might not have handled the track. It would be no surprise to see him return to form at Newbury on Saturday, and at odds of 14/1 with BetVictor he is of interest each way.

CONCLUSION

Home Of The Brave is a worthy favourite here and he is a horse that looks capable of scoring at this level. However, he looks very skinny at odds of just 6/4, and I think there is better value to be found elsewhere. Dark Emerald is very tempting after his big run last time, and he is proven at this track. Jallota is another older horse that can’t be discounted, and the form of his French run at Deauville was boosted last week.

However, one of the least exposed horses in the field is Richard Pankhurst, and he represents a yard with a stellar record in this race. He looked a massively promising type when he won his Listed race at Ascot, and he showed he retained plenty of ability on his comeback run at the same venue. This strong traveller will be suited by a searching pace, and he is guaranteed to get that with Home Of The Brave in the field. It is a pity there are only seven runners in the race but, even so, I reckon Richard Pankhurst is overpriced and he is worth backing each way at his current odds of 14/1.

STEVOS SELECTION: RICHARD PANKHURST E/W 14/1 BetVictor