Betting Advice and Analysis

A Profit at last!

After 2 of the most dreadful week’s results ever, it was great to see a profit from last week’s games. It was only a slight one of 11.11% and it was so nearly another disastrous one until Norwich surprisingly beat Man United 1- at a home. I said surprisingly but I did say that it was a big price for a home team against a far from convincing Man United in recent weeks.
I am still showing a loss for the season (-22.53%) though and although it’s still relatively early days, I was trying to think if I’m doing anything different. One thing I do that I didn’t last season was actually input the home/away/draw average percentages into my spread sheet for each game and tinker with them from there. The idea behind this was to get more accurate and even more impressive results but I am now thinking that this has had a negative effect. Whereas before my opinions would be strong and somewhat dismissive of average facts and now my opinion is perhaps being watered down a little and I’m seeing this too similar to the markets. So this week I’ve tried hard not to let this influence too much as I do have fairly strong opinions for this weekend’s games. After this week I think it will be best not to use the historical average percentages as a starting point.
I was made aware of a new betting site called Bet Butler today whilst listening to Talksport. It appears that they act as a betting broker, getting you the best available prices from all the bookmakers. I liked the idea initially as it can be tedious hunting for good prices and trying to get enough money on but then I realised that they take 3% commission so doesn’t this make hunting for the best prices a tad pointless. I’m sure they’ll say that this still works out better than betfair after their 5% commission but I’m not convinced. I think it would have been better if they could have worked out some sort of commission on the business they bring to the bookmaker instead of charging the client. If anyone has any experience with them or has any insightful thoughts on this please let me know.
Here are this week’s selections!

Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
24-Nov-12
Sunderland
West Brom
Sunderland
2.5
24-Nov-12
Everton
Norwich
Norwich
7.5
24-Nov-12
Man Utd
QPR
Draw
8.2
24-Nov-12
Stoke
Fulham
Fulham
3.75
24-Nov-12
Wigan
Reading
Wigan
1.95
24-Nov-12
Aston Villa
Arsenal
Arsenal
1.75
25-Nov-12
Chelsea
Man City
Draw
3.57
25-Nov-12
Southampton
Newcastle
Newcastle
3.22
25-Nov-12
Swansea
Liverpool
Swansea
3.6
25-Nov-12
Tottenham
West Ham
West Ham
6
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