1) Start with a decent betting bank
Many bettors struggle with money management and regularly blow their betting funds and they really need to learn to respect money. The truth is however, that most people will use £10, £20 or maybe £50 to bet with and they are happy to go ‘all in’ on occasion because this amount is not really significant to them in the scheme of things.
The trouble is that these £10 or £20s add up to a lot of money in the long run and if you’d set aside a larger amount to start that would be a big blow to lose, you are more likely to respect it. This doesn’t have to be a huge amount and still should be an amount that you can afford. It might be the difference between starting with £250 rather than £25 for example. Keep this money completely separate from your other funds and have a separate account for it if possible.
2) Have a set (level) stake for outsiders
The true odds of long shots and anything over even money really is very difficult to price up. Not many of us have the time or the skill to know the exact price of these kinds of selections. Even if you are excellent at creating your own tissue prices the variance on these kinds of bets is so large and long losing streaks will lead you to doubt your methods.
These kind of odds are however more likely to give you value for money in the long-term and if you use the same stake on these then you shouldn’t go too far wrong. Look at the tipster records of Crackpot and Pricewise and you can see just how valuable these can be.
3) Use Kelly staking for odds on shots
Odds on shots are selections less than evens and are much easier to price up. This means that these prices are usually more accurate and it’s hard to get significant value long-term. Using Kelly stakes to gauge the value or our confidence in a bet is a good way of maximizing returns from these types of bets. Though keep in mind that it’s easy to over-estimate your edge with odds on selections.
The great thing about these bets is that even if you do get it wrong the chances of a win are still in your favour. Finding value at the kind of prices can be very valuable indeed as long as you can get your bets taken. Here is a link to our Kelly calculator.
You can also improve your returns further by betting early and doing a little shopping around to get the best prices. So form your opinion early and keep ahead of the market.
4) Respect the market
Keep in mind at all times that a selection is priced as it is for a reason, a very good reason. That being it is the informed opinion of 100s, thousands, potentially millions of experts and casual punters and on average there will be very little error.
You of course have the advantage of being selective and only betting when you feel there is error but keep in mind the market may be right and you should always check to make sure your betting balance will survive despite the stake you have chosen.
A good rule of thumb is to times the price you have got by 10 and this would give you a rough idea of the worst possible losing streak e.g. a bet made a 2.0 x 10 would be 20 losses in a row ate evens. This is a cautious approach but it‘s a good guide and gives you a realistic view of the worst possible scenario and whether you’d survive it.
Always imagine that your bet has lost and evaluate your potential new balance before the event has happened. If it makes you feel uncomfortable and you think it may provoke a negative reaction, then lower your stake.
5) Err on the side of caution
Learn to manage risk. If a bet is not winning as easily as you expected don’t wait for the struggle, trade out even for a red and wait for a better opportunity. If in doubt keep stakes low and cut loses where possible.
Some of the most profitable traders I know have many more red markets than green ones. Remember that just by staying in the game and preserving your betting balance you’re already a step ahead of the rest.