Horse Racing

3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Nassau Stakes

3.10 GOODWOOD – QATAR NASSAU STAKES   (British Champions Series)  
(Group 1)
(Fillies & Mares)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+)

Our latest horse racing Tipster DaveStevos attempts to find us a winner in the Qatar Nassau Stakes tomorrow.

John Gosden, the late Sir Henry Cecil and Aidan O’Brien are the only trainers to have won this race since 2007, with Gosden on a hat trick this year having won it in 2013 and 2014. No favourite has won since the magical mare Midday triumphed for the third time in 2011, and there has only been one winner priced up at bigger than 11/2 since 2005 (Winsili 20/1 2013).

1. BRIGHT APPROACH (GOSDEN/HUGHES)

Very well bred four year old who hasn’t been seen since finishing down the field in the Ribblesdale (12F good to firm) last June. A half-sister to top hurdler Nichols Canyon and dam is from the family of Luso and Peeping Fawn.

Looks to be the third string of Gosden’s trio, and can be backed at odds of 40/1. The fact she hails from the Gosden yard is a positive, as is the jockey booking. However, she has an awfully long absence to overcome and too much has to be taken on trust for her to be regarded as a betting proposition. Best watched at her current odds of 40/1.

2. CLADOCERA (DE ROYER-DUPRE/HAMELIN)

French raider who was an impressive dual Group 2 winner (8F+9F good) at Meydan in January. Stepped up to Group 1 company on her next two outings, and was found wanting both times. She was arguably slightly unlucky at Ascot on the second occasion as she was short of room a couple of furlongs from home.

Is a daughter of Oasis Dream, who is usually an influence for speed, and is out of a listed winning mare (8F). On pedigree it is not a given that this trip will be ideal, and in any case she has yet to show she has the ability to win at this sort of level. Best watched at odds of 14/1.

3. ARABIAN QUEEN (ELSWORTH/DE SOUSA)

Likes to get on with things and can pull quite hard in her races. That didn’t stop her landing a Group 3 at Epsom (8.5 good) on her seasonal reappearance. Also scored at Group 2 level as a 2yo (6F soft).

Bred to get every yard of this trip, and more, but if she doesn’t settle better she will struggle to see it out. Likely to face competition for the lead too if the same tactics are employed on Diamondsandrubies as last time she ran. However, if De Sousa can work his magic and get her to settle, and she gets her own way in front (an unlikely scenario) this filly could well run a big race at odds of 25/1.

4. DIAMONDSANDRUBIES (O’BRIEN/HEFFERNAN)

Ran a cracker in the Oaks at Epsom on her first run at the highest level (12F good) having been hampered at a crucial time, and delivered on the promise she showed that day with a narrow defeat of Legatissimo in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh (10F good), a filly she faces again today.

Beautifully bred daughter of Fastnet Rock and is out of a Group 1 winner who is a sister to Yesterday. She looked to be crying out for the line last time out, when Legatissimo was a fast finishing second to her, and if Legatissimo gets a clearer passage through she will do well to hold her off. Her current odds of 10/3 look a little bit cramped to me.

5. JAZZI TOP (GOSDEN/BUICK)

Represents the trainer jockey combination that has been successful in the last two runnings of this race and is priced up as the second string. Listed winner (10F good to firm) at Newmarket on her second start this year, and was pitched straight into Group 1 company in the Oaks (12F good) where she finished a creditable fifth, six lengths behind Qualify and Legatissimo.

A daughter of Danehill Dancer she is a half-sister to the classy Izzi Top, who was best over 10F, as was her dam, a Zafonic half-sister to Opera House and Kayf Tara. It is a pedigree with a lovely mix of speed and stamina. Definitely bred to be a Group 1 filly, and the drop back in trip should suit. 16/1 looks too big given her connections’ record in this race and an each way contender.

6. LADY OF DUBAI ( CUMANI/ATZENI)

Listed winner over course and distance back in May, and went on to finish third on her next outing in the Oaks at Epsom, a couple of lengths behind Legatissimo. Looked to have no excuses that day, and it is difficult to see her reversing the form with the Wachman filly, especially over this shorter trip.

Nicely bred daughter of Dubawi, whose dam was placed at Group 1 level, and she is by Montjeu out of a full sister to a St Leger winner. Plenty of black type there, but a lot if it was achieved over 12F and further. Is entered in the Yorkshire Oaks and it might be wise to watch her with a view to backing her in that race. Could run on late into a place if her stamina is brought into play and they go too hard early doors. Place prospects at best and can be backed at 13/2.

7. LEGATISSIMO (WACHMAN/LORDAN)

The current market leader, and deservedly so, as this filly is probably a shade unlucky not to be going into this race on a five timer having been short headed on her last two starts. Avoided all the trouble at Epsom in the Oaks when outsider Qualify lowered her colours, and just failed to reel in Diamondsandrubies in the Pretty Polly.

Beautifully bred, as one would expect for a Coolmore horse, and an obvious contender. However, as much as winning can turn into a habit, so can getting beaten and it is never good to see a sequence of seconds building up in a horse’s form. Even so, she is a worthy favourite and she could end up going off even shorter than her current odds of 15/8 if Magnier and chums fancy her. Will be disappointing if she isn’t there or thereabouts at the business end.

8. STAR OF SEVILLE (GOSDEN/DETTORI)

Group 1 and Group 3 winner who is four from her last five, the only blip coming at Epsom in the Oaks when she lost out worst of all after a barging match in the home straight. She made amends in impressive fashion on her next start in the Prix De Diane at Chantilly (10.5 good) and looks to be the Gosden first string.

Given her trainers record in the race, and the fact that she is already a Group 1 winner, the 8/1 that is currently available looks to be a great price. She is unbeaten at this trip and is also unbeaten with Frankie Dettori in the saddle.

9. WEDDING VOW (O’BRIEN/DONOGHUE)

Represents the trainer/jockey combination that won the Oaks. This filly looked below top class for much of the season having tasted defeat at both Listed and Group 2 level. However, she answered her critics in some style last time at the Curragh (9.5F good/yielding) producing what was easily a career best and accounting for the highly rated Weld filly Brooch in a Group 2.

Held by Legatissimo on earlier form this year, but this filly has obviously improved a lot in the last couple of months. Has a regal pedigree, by Danehill Dancer and out of Oaks second Remember When, a half-sister to none other than Dylan Thomas. Looks to be the O’Brien second string, but could be dangerous to overlook at her current odds of 8/1.

CONCLUSION 

The bookies seem convinced that this is a two horse race, between Legatissimo and Diamondsandrubies, and if their meeting in the Pretty Polly is anything to go by there will be nothing between them. The latter is unlikely to get her own way in front this time around with Arabian Queen in the field, and that could spell trouble for her chances.

Of the Gosden trio Star of Seville looks the obvious one, and this looks to be her optimum trip. Wedding Vow, the O’Brien second string is an intriguing contender, and it would be no surprise to see her improve again. If they go too quick early on it will play to Lady Of Dubai’s strengths, but she will need everything to drop right on the day if she is to win.

However, the each way suggestion is JAZZI TOP, who looks sure to be suited by this drop back in trip and represents the trainer/jockey combination that have been successful in this for the last two seasons. Legatissimo is the most likely winner, and should go close, but given her propensity for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory she is not one for the faint hearted at her likely skinny odds.

Prediction:
1) JAZZI TOP (E/W)     16/1
2) LEGATISSIMO         15/8
3) STAR OF SEVILLE   8/1
$) WEDDING VOW       8/1

 

 

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