Monthly Archives: September 2015


Betshoot


Betshoot

betshoot

Around since 2004 BetShoot was one of the first and now most successful online tipster competitions. All of their betting tips include a preview and as their name suggests they are particularly strong in football. Two of our very own football tipsters Alcuni and Cold Gold also post tips on there.

In addition to their football tips, BetShoot have a good offering for tennis, basketball and baseball tips. There are however no horse racing tips and if it’s those you are looking for then you can find some of the best horse racing tips from those who take part in our Tipster Table.

The  top 4 BetShoot tipsters are awarded 50 euros each which we think is a bit on the low side considering how long they’ve been online and how successful they’ve become. They request too that all tips are submitted 3 hour prior to kick off and this is perhaps a little strict.

The fact that tipsters can vary their stake on BetShoot is appealing for tipsters but can make true comparisons difficult and prize chasers not surprisingly submit a lot of full stake tips towards the end of the month.

Tipsters not making a profit are given the boot after -200 which make the stats look more favourable and doesn’t really give tipsters who like to back long shots a chance.

If you want decent football previews and shrewd tipping advice BetShoot is a website well worth visiting.






Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Preview


Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Preview

1.45 NEWBURY – DUBAI DUTY FREE LEGACY CUP
(Registered As The Arc Trial) (Group 3)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+)
Saturday 19 September 2015

This Group 3 contest is run over 1m 3f and the going is currently described as soft. With showers forecast before racing it is unlikely to change significantly. Michael Stoute and Roger Charlton have been the trainers to follow in recent years with two wins apiece, and they are both represented in this year’s edition.

Only three favourites have won since 2005, but there has only been one double figure priced winner in that time, Compton Bolter at 25/1 back in 2005 for Gerard Butler. Below is a look at the runners and riders and their respective prospects.

SKY HUNTER (BIN SUROOR/DOYLE)

5yo son of Motivator that has been a model of consistency since his two defeats in Spring 2014. He has been first past the post on three runs since, including a listed race as well as a couple of Group races. The hood has worked wonders since its application. He was disqualified after winning on his penultimate run of last season at Ayr for testing positive for a banned substance.

He followed that up with a commanding win on soft ground in a Group 3 here on soft over 12f, before taking a Group 2 on good at Meydan, again over 12f. He is versatile regarding ground, and he is he 3rd highest rated in the field at 115. The extra furlong will be fine (half brother Highest 2nd in St Leger) and he looks way too big a price at 10/1. It is his first run in over 6 months, but he has run well and won well fresh before.

BATTALION (HAGGAS/COSGRAVE)

Represents same connections of Storm the Stars, who must have traded at a short price in running in the St Leger last weekend. His stamina ran out though, and they will be hoping for compensation with Battalion here.

This son of Authorized has a fair chunk to find on the ratings at 108. He is rated 13lb inferior to likely favourite Eagle Top, and it is difficult to see him troubling that horse. Sky Hunter also had his measure when they met last year though judging by his running style it is likely that dropping back to 11f will suit. Too many doubts about him though, and he is overlooked on this occasion at 16/1.

EAGLE TOP (GOSDEN/DETTORI)

Represents a trainer jockey combination that have had an outstanding year with Golden Horn, among others, and they have the odds on favourite here in Eagle Top. He went agonisingly close in Group 1 company last time out, missing out by a nose to Postponed at Ascot (12f soft).

This son of Pivotal has already tasted success at Group 2 level (12f good to firm), also at Ascot, and he has been knocking on the door on his last couple of runs. His penultimate run behind Snow Sky was decent too and he will be fancied by many to continue the exceptional run of Frankie and Gosden. 5/6 is the biggest price available and he should be thereabouts.

HILLSTAR (STOUTE/FORTUNE)

This 5yo son of Danehill Dancer looked set for big things this year. He won this last season and went on to taste success at Woodbine in a Group 1 subsequently. However things haven’t gone to plan at all this year, and Michael Stoute will be scratching his head wondering why it has all gone wrong.

He has been beaten by a combined total of 18.5 lengths on his three starts so far this term, and form figures of 556 don’t do justice to how disappointing he has been. Perhaps Mr. Stoute has earmarked this race as his target all along, and he is being trained to peak for a return trip to Woodbine. However, he is impossible to fancy on what he has shown so far, and the return to this venue on soft ground needs to prompt an amazing turnaround. He is a risky wager at 12/1.

THE CORSICAN (SIMCOCK/SPENCER)

This horse finished off last year on a high with successive handicap and Listed wins over 10f and 10.5f respectively at Goodwood and Doncaster. He returned to action in May and looked as good as ever in landing a listed heat at Goodwood. He has since run with credit at Ascot in a Group 1, and his run last time at Goodwood was excellent in a Group 3.

He finished just behind Dubday over 12f on good ground, but he has shown he handles a slight ease before so once it is not bottomless he should be fine. Jamie Spencer is booked and he has been riding out of his skin. He should announce his retirement more often! The only slight worry is the drop back to 11f, but he should cope. He is priced up at 7/2 and is definitely a threat.

OOTY HILL (CHARLTON/ATZENI)

Andrea Atzeni was devastated after losing the big race on Simple Verse last week, and he will be hoping to make up for it on Ooty Hill today. This gelding is the unknown quantity of the race, and he is having just his third start. His owner has had a ball with Golden Horn this year, and will be hoping for more of the same from this grey 3yo son of Dubawi.

He won his maiden easily under Atzeni over 7f at the tail end of last season on soft at Newmarket, and he has only been seen once since. That was back in May when he was beaten comfortably by Star of Seville, form that the winner has gone on to frank. That was over 12f on quick ground, so perhaps he was put away until the rains came and softened up the ground. His dam was listed placed over today’s trip so there should be no worries on that front, but it takes a big leap of faith to back this horse in this race against proven Group 1 and 2 performers. 6/1 looks short on what he has achieved and he is best watched for the moment.

CONCLUSION

Eagle Top is the current odds on favourite, and seeing as he went desperately close at a higher level last time it is no surprise. He is the highest rated in the race, has proved he handles cut and he is a worthy favourite. He had a hard race though, and that could tell here.

Hillstar has been badly out of form, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see a better horse in this race. However, it is difficult to forget his last couple of efforts, and he won’t see any of my hard earned. Ooty Hill is unexposed, but also unproven, and 6/1 looks skinny. The Corsican should run a sound race and is respected.

However, the one that stands out as being overpriced is the Saeed Bin Suroor horse Sky Hunter, and at 10/1 he looks well worth taking a chance on. He has looked a different animal since the application of the hood, handles soft ground, goes well fresh and his trainer is absolutely flying. He is the selection at 10/1 to lower the colours of The Corsican and Eagle Top.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS:
1. SKY HUNTER 10/1
2. THE CORSICAN 7/2
3. EAGLE TOP 5/6






Totescoop6 September Stakes


Totescoop6 September Stakes

1.45 KEMPTON  TOTESCOOP6 SEPTEMBER STAKES (Group 3)
05 SEPTEMBER 2015
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) (1M 4F)

Just the six go to post for Channel 4’s opening race this Saturday, a surprisingly low turnout considering the healthy prize money on offer. Godolphin and Saeed Bin Suroor have won this the last two years, but he has no representative this time around. The boys in blue will instead look to complete the hat trick with the John Gosden trained Jack Hobbs. He will go off a short price, and will look to become just the second jolly to oblige since 2006.

ARAB DAWN-(MORRISON/TURNER)

Second lowest rated in the field at 103, and this 4yo grey looks up against it stepped into pattern company for the first time. Was beaten out of sight behind Litigant in The Ebor, and will have to produce much better form to get involved here.

He has won here before though, which is a positive, and he has a decent draw too. However, there are other horses in the field that look much better treated by the conditions of the race, and the best Arab Dawn can hope for is minor money. He can be backed at odds of 16/1.

AUSSIE REIGNS (KNIGHT/TYLICKI) 

Rated 1lb higher than Arab Dawn at 104, and also comes here on the back of a poor effort when well beaten in a Group 2 at Goodwood. This 5yo gelding wasn’t beaten too far in Listed and Group 3 races on his previous two runs though, and a repeat of those two efforts would see him pushing for a top 3 finish.

Also is a previous course and distance winner, at Listed level back in 2013,so his ability to handle the track is not in question. He needs to bounce back from that uninspiring Goodwood run, but if he does he might well sneak third and he can be backed at odds of 25/1.

FIRE FIGHTING (JOHNSTON/NORTON) 

Typically hardy Mark Johnston 4yo who was in great form earlier this year, but who has lost his way in recent weeks. Poor at this level on his last two runs, and though he is rated 110 he hasn’t been running like he deserves that mark. 

He has yet to taste success on an artificial surface after nine attempts, and it is difficult to see that changing in this contest. Has run well here before though, so the track is not a massive worry. His current form is though, and he is overlooked at odds of 10/1 until showing signs of a return to form.

NICEOFYOUTOTELLME (BECKETT/QUEALLY) 

This 6yo gelding has been running well in the main this season, but blotted his copybook with a below average run behind Big Orange at Newmarket in a Group 2 last time. He is rated 108, and he went very close on his last two tries at Group 3 level this year.

He has won around here before, so the surface holds no fears for him, and his last two efforts over 10f suggested that 12f is what he wants nowadays. He is available at odds of 12/1, and he can be the one to give the favourite most to think about back at a track he loves.

JACK HOBBS (GOSDEN/BUICK)

Classy 3yo chased Golden Horn home at Epsom, and then followed up himself in the Irish Derby at the Curragh. After the aforementioned Golden Horn got turned over at similarly skinny odds a couple of weeks back, punters will be wary about steaming in on this one.

It is difficult to see the same outcome though, as Jack Hobbs looks to be head and shoulders above the rest of his opponents. He can be backed at 2/7 and he is difficult to oppose. It will be a big shock if he gets beat and I can’t see it happening.

MUTATIS MUTANDIS (WALKER/FRESU) 

This 4yo filly has got her head in front twice this season, the second win a Listed contest at Windsor over 11.5f. Stepped into Group 1 company on her next run, and was far from disgraced behind Diamondsandrubies. Her last run was poor but perhaps the easy ground was at fault on that occasion.

If she can recapture the form of her penultimate effort she could well put up a good show. The surface is an unknown as she has yet to race on anything other than turf. There are too many question marks to be confident about her chances in this event, and at 16/1 she is best watched.

SWEEPING UP (MORRISON/COSGRAVE) 

4yo filly who won her maiden here, and has also won a handicap off 80 this season. She was stepped into Group 3 company on her next run, and was found wanting behind Simple Verse. It was a similar story on her last run, back in a handicap, as she struggled to land a blow off 90, though perhaps the easy ground didn’t suit her upped in trip.

The return to 12f today should help her, as should the return to Kempton. However, she is the lowest rated in the field by some distance and she will need to find heaps of improvement from somewhere. Can be backed at 50/1 and that is an accurate reflection of her chances.

CONCLUSION 

I am usually never one for tipping up odds on favourites, but on some occasions it is simply unavoidable. Jack Hobbs drops down a couple of grades in this race, and while it is clearly a warm up for bigger days ahead, he will still only need to be operating at 75% to come out on top.

Of the remainder Niceofyoutotellme looks most interesting, and perhaps he can be the one for the forecast. Aussie Reigns and Arab Dawn both have course form, and can fight it out for the minor money.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS:
Jack Hobbs
Niceofyoutotellme
Aussie Reigns






Ladbrokes St Leger Ante Post


Ladbrokes St Leger Ante Post

Aidan O’Brien trains 2 out of the first 3 in the betting for this years Ladbrokes ST LEGER at Doncaster. ORDER ST GEORGE is currently the market leader for the race at around 3/1 with most bookmakers, after his recent win last weekend at the CURRAGH.

Aidan o Brien’s 3 year old looked impressive on his most recent start in the group 3 Irish ST LEGER trial at the CURRAGH, when winning by just over 7 lengths, although he was getting a lot of weight of some classy older horses that day.

This colt also has an entry in the Irish ST LEGER at the CURRAGH the following day, so there’s also a possibility they may go for the Irish version with him instead. The 3/1 looks quite short at this stage in what is a very competitive race, in which there’s been some shock results in previous years.

The next two horses in the betting are STORM OF STARS trained by William Haggis and BONDI BEACH the other horse trained by Aidan o Brien. These two horses both ran in the Betway great volitigeur stakes at York last week. A lot of trainers will use the voltigeur as a trial for there Ladbrokes ST LEGER horse.

This years renewal of the voltigeur ended in these 2 colts fighting it out in a closely contested finish with STORM OF THE STARS keeping the race after a stewards enquiry due to drifting left in the closing stages of the race causing BONDI BEACH a little interference which jockey Joseph o Brien believes cost him ¾ of a length and possibly the race.

At this stage out the first 3 horses in the betting BONDI BEACH is biggest price at 5/1which is what I believe to be best value out of the 3. I think he has got more scope to improve than STORM OF THE STARS who is second favourite at 7/2.

William Haggis’s 3 year old has had a tough season running in some highly competitive races, and I just think that the step up in trip might just be a little too much at this stage of the season. STORM OF THE STARS has run in the Epsom and Irish derby this season and a good group 1 race at LONGCHAMP over in France in which he was beaten in 3rd before finally winning the voltigeur at YORK. I can see this colt getting beaten by something that’s had a lighter campaign this season as these big races take a lot out of a young horse.

Another trainer to be feared in this race is John Gosden who has won this race 4 times and his runner this year is MR SINGH. Frankie Dettori rode this horse to win at NEWMARKET recently to win over 1 mile and 5 furlongs and looked strong at the finish I don’t see the trip being an issue for this horse. John Gosden has also entered MR SINGH in the long distance cup at ASCOT in October on champion’s day, which clearly means he expects him to stay.

HIGH CHAPPARAL is this horses sire, a breeder’s cup winner over 1 mile 4 furlongs who was trained by Aidan o Brien. The best price available for MR SINGH is currently 6/1.If John Gosdens colt is as classy as his sire the 6/1 could look quite big come the day of the race. I don’t think we have seen the best of MR SINGH just yet he could even be the horse to watch out for next year, however at this stage id rather look for a something to back each way at a bigger price.

France have got 2 horses entered in this years renewal, however that form doesn’t look too convincing a lot of small field soft ground races in France. The best form of the two is SUMBAL who finished 5th in a group 1 at CHANTILLY in a race won by Arc contender NEW BAY.

Aidan o Brien saddled HIGHLAND REEL who finished 2nd that day to NEW BAY so he will know what sort of horse can beat SUMBAL especially considering that race was run over 10 furlongs. Ballydoyle have another 4 entries for the race, and at the prices the one I find most interesting is GIOVANNI CANALETTO.

It wouldn’t be uncommon for this stables 2nd or 3rd string horse to win a classic. In this year’s running of the Epsom Oaks there was a shock win when qualify won for the Ballydoyle team at 50/1.

GIOVANNI CANALETTO has had a similar campaign to STORM OF THE STARS in the races he has run in throughout the season. He would have to improve to beat STORM OF THE STARS but I see the step up in trip bringing the best out of him, and I get the feeling the Irish or English ST LEGER, has always been this horses long term plan.

Aidan o Brien’s colt has run reasonably well in the Epsom and Irish Derby and also ran to form recently when finishing 3rd in the voltigeur stakes at YORK. There is currently 12 runners left in the race at this stage but I can see the field size shortening come the day of the race. I see the 16/1 excellent each way value considering he only finished 5 lengths behind the market leaders at YORK, if there was only 7/8 runners in the field this colt would be much shorter in the betting. So the 16/1 is worth taking at this stage.

I can see GIOVANNI CANALETTO relishing the step up to 1 mile 6 furlongs and I reckon he could pick up the pieces when everything else has done its running.

ADVICE: GIOVANNI CANALETTO
16/1 BET 365 – 1 POINT EACH WAY