Monthly Archives: March 2015

Premier League Darts Week 8 Preview

Premier League Darts Week 8 Preview

What an absolutely thrilling Thursday night we had last week. The tone for the evening was set with an exciting draw between Adrian Lewis and James Wade. Lewis still hasn’t performed to his potential and I thought the ever-consistent Wade was a little unlikely not to take all the points. Another draw followed with Stephen Bunting butchering a sizeable lead to let Peter Wright back into the game. Next came… well, wow.

The greatest losing average in Premier League darts was achieved by Mr Phil Taylor against the rejuvenated Raymond van Barneveld. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such an improved performance from one week to the next. Yet again Kim Huychrechts managed to play extremely well and take nothing from the match as Gary Anderson pleased an expectant Scottish crowd. Finally, Chizzy’s inevitable slide from the top of the table has begun as MVG took him down 4-7.

This week’s action has some potentially thrilling match-ups, It should be a great evening of darts.


Adrian Lewis v Dave Chisnall

There’s every reason to be believe that Adrian Lewis is starting to find some form. An 103 average against Gary Anderson was followed last week by an 102 average against James Wade – impressive stuff. His downfall has been on the doubles, but I think it’s worth chancing that he’ll find his finishing again this week. Lewis is a quality player and pundits so regularly forget the darts that he is capable of.

Chizzy was poor last week. An average of only 90.68 is simply not good enough. He also only managed 22% on the checkouts. Although I think he’ll improve, to find 10 points in a week is some effort. I think we could see a decline in Chizzy’s form from this week onwards.

The head to head record is also promising. Lewis has won 5/6 of they meetings and significantly, all of their major/premier events.

Adrian Lewis to win (13/10 – 888Sport)


Gary Anderson v Stephen Bunting

This match looks set to go to Gary Anderson. He’s possibly the best player on the planet and the moment and I struggle to see Stephen ending this run. However, the match markets are worth avoiding here. 4/6 is a very short price in the Premier League (particularly with the option of the draw) as it’s such a short format. It’s worth looking elsewhere here.

Therefore, I’m looking to the highest check-out market where I think Bunting is worth a punt. Bunting is going to chasing this game but should get a few legs on the board. He’s managed three ton-plus finishes in his last five games. By contrast, Anderson has managed just one ton-plus finish in his last five games.

This is more or less a 50:50 market. The only reason Gary Anderson is favourite is because he will in all likelihood win more legs. However, it only takes one big finish from Bunting. He will probably often find himself in the position to take out high checkouts with Anderson leaving himself a 2/3 dart finish.

Stephen Bunting to have the highest checkout (7/5 – Betfair)


Peter Wright v James Wade

This looks a really interesting tie with two players who are in good form without setting the stage alight.

James Wade has established a reputation as performing at a consistently high level every week. His last three averages have been 98+ (including two 103+ averages) and he looks to be comfortable on stage. His real strength is actually on the doubles. In the last three weeks, he hasn’t strayed below 46% on the checkouts. This is really impressive.

Despite only averaging 93. Wright managed a draw last week against Stephen Bunting. He didn’t impress with his scoring and didn’t even excel when it came to the checkouts. His resurgence in that game can actually be attributed more to the collapse of Bunting. I wasn’t impressed by Wright and think he could really struggle against the ultra-consistent Wade. I peaked last year and will struggle to replicate his successes.

The head to head record is extremely encouraging! Of the last 12 meetings, Wade has won 10 (including the last 7)! There is no reason to persuade me this run of domination will end.

James Wade to win (6/5 – William Hill)


Michael van Gerwen v Raymond van Barneveld

A double-Dutch derby! After Barney’s incredible display against Taylor, this could potentially be a very exciting clash. I’m quite tempted to back Barney at 4/1. He’s got a fair record against MVG in Major/Premier tournaments (although he has lost his last 6 other ranking matches!) and it seems a big price considering how well he played last week! However, Barney is so inconsistent, I just can’t back him against the World no. 1. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got turned over 7-2 this week!

The highest checkout market is not worth touching with MVG the likely winner at 4/7. Last week was Barney’s first ton-plus check out in this year’s Premier League while MVG takes at least one out most weeks, but it is a short price.

The most 180s is the bet I’m recommending. I think it’s going to be pretty close between these two. They’ve both taken out 5 in their last two Premier League outings. I can see MVG dominating the 140s total while 180s will come down to a bit of luck on the wire. While this is mind, I’m going to recommend a small wager on RVB to score the most 180s. This is a speculative bet but in a match devoid of any real value, this is the bet.

Raymond van Barneveld most 180s (21/10 – 888Sport)


Phil Taylor v Kim Huybrechts

I’m really looking forward to this one – I think it could be a really excellent game with both players unfortunate losers last week.

Kim’s scoring has been really good. Averages of 98+ in his last two (and 105+ in the two before this game). Yet, he still sits at the bottom of the Premier League! Last week this was due to a combination of bad luck, a good opponent and poor finishing (25% – his worst in this year’s Premier League). However, he just isn’t playing badly enough to believe that Kim will lose by more than 4 legs to Phil.

Phil did play superbly last week. He averaged an exceptional 115! However, he still managed to lose. His c/o rate was on at one dart in three which isn’t up to Taylor’s usual standard. He’s lost his last three games and hasn’t covered this handicap until 19th February against Stephen Bunting (this was 6 major matches ago).

It’s very hard to see Taylor losing this match – Kim has actually never beaten Taylor. However, Phil would have to perform very well while Kim would have to under perform for this bet to lose.

Instead of taking Kim on the +2.5 handicap, I’m going for over 10.5 legs which also allows for a Taylor 7-4 Huychrechts victory.

Over 10.5 Legs (4/5 – Sky Bet)


Six Nations Final Weekend Preview

Six Nations Final Weekend Preview

As expected it has come down to the last weekend to decide the outcome of the 2015 Six Nations. Three teams are in with a chance. England have a points difference of +37, Ireland +33 and Wales +17.

For me, England can justify their odds on tags. France have failed to do enough to convince me that it’ll be anything else than a relatively comfortable England victory. Scotland should push Ireland all the way; they have the motivation of avoiding the wooden spoon and have a slight chance in front of their home fans. Wales will win easily in Rome but 20 points is a lot to make up before kick off. I wouldn’t recommend a bet at their current price but if they drifted to anything nearer evens, I’d say it was worth a bet.

The difficulty about betting this weekend is timing. I wouldn’t actually advise betting on a game before the prior game is finished. Wales play first, then Ireland, then England. Knowing what a team needs to do is so important when making a bet and without this one cannot really make an informed decision… but I’m going to have a go!


Italy v Wales, 12.30

Sergio Parisse is my hero. No matter how useless and ineffective the players around him have been for the past ten years, I can’t remember him having anything short of an outstanding game for the Azzurri. Sadly for Italians, he will not feature against Wales and for me this spells great danger for the Italians!

While the TV pundits continue to treat their win at Murryfield as a monumental turning point in Italian rugby, it was simply that Scotland didn’t take their chances and the Italian pack got on top in the last twenty minutes. Apart from Parisse (and a few select others), there just isn’t enough quality in the team. Haimona maybe entertaining to watch but he isn’t what an international 10 should look like (or any 10 to be perfectly honest). The Italian backs looked totally devoid of ideas against France. While they weren’t aided by the weather conditions, it’s embarrassing to be beaten to nil at home.

If they are to have a realistic chance of winning, Wales really need to win by 30 points in Rome. I think they have every chance of doing this. In stark contrast to the Italian backs, Wales have pace, strength and flair. North, Davies, Williams and Halfpenny have the ability to terrorise any defence in the world and I have a feeling they could run riot.

My only concern is in the front row. Aaron Jarvis and Rob Evans are enforced changes and aren’t experienced. However, I think Wales will be keen to throw the ball around as much as possible, particularly in the second half, so this will be less of an issue.

The best bet for this match in my opinion is for Wales to win the second half by 12 points or more. They will try and win the game in the first half and put the points on in the second. The Italians will tire and I think we could see three or four tries being run in.

Wales -12 Second Half handicap (10/11 – Ladbrokes)


Scotland v Ireland 14.30

This is a fascinating game. Ireland will want to win by a few in order to challenge England to the title while the Scottish will be playing for pride after a disappointing campaign.

I had money on Wales beating Ireland last weekend. Ireland didn’t look wholly convincing against England; their kicking game was spot on which won them a lot of territory but in other areas they looked average. I think the bookies have overestimated them again. I regularly use motivation as a reason for my tips but this has to be weighed beside ability and I just don’t think the gulf in class between these two is as great as the cap suggests.

Ireland have named a strong side with Healy returning in the front row. They will of course be up for this match and will throw everything at Scotland. However, their performances so far just don’t convince me that they can win by any more than a score or two.

Scotland haven’t got the results but they’ve impressed me under Cotter. He’s clearly a very good coach and will have a plan for how to deal with Ireland’s attack. The Scottish pack have held their own well in games so I can’t see the Irish getting a stronghold in any particular area. Laidlaw’s unforgiving boot will keep Scotland in this game.

The head to head record is also promising. The last two games played between these two at Murryfield have gone the way of the hosts. Might we see an upset here? Probably not but I think it could be a very close game indeed.

Scotland +11 (8/11 – Ladbrokes)


England v France 17.00

The motivations, the expectations and ultimately the way this game goes will be totally dependent upon the results in Rome and Edinburgh so I’d probably hold off in backing this tip until about 16.30!

The reality will probably be that France have nothing to play for and England have to win by about 10 points. In which case, there’s only one sensible option – back England to cover the handicap.

England have impressed me this tournament. They’ve created a lot of chances (last week squandering the vast majority) and have played an entertaining brand of rugby. They have a really excellent record at Twickenham (they haven’t actually lost since 2012 against Wales) and should get the win against the French.

Watching France is for me much like filling a balloon with air and letting it go without tying a knot. My hopes and expectations fly into the air before just as quickly sinking to the floor often accompanied by a comical trump. This tournament has been no different; talented players lacking direction and ultimately failing to deliver the goods. I’m not overly encouraged by the display against Italy despite the impressive scoreline. It was a scrappy game and more of a case of Italy playing poorly than France impressing.

France haven’t won in London since 2007. In fact, the latest victories have all been by a healthy margin; 10 points (2013), 8 points (2011) and 24 points (2009). Considering that there is a greater motivation to score points and this French team are quite possibly worse than any of those previous sides, this is only encouraging.

England -9 (10/11 – Ladbrokes)

Write for!

Write for!

We are looking for fellow sports betting enthusiasts, budding sports writers or journalists to write on our blog page, especially those who have a particular interest in Football, Horse Racing or Tennis. now receives thousands of visitors per day and writing on the blog is an excellent way to showcase your journalistic talents.

We are looking for anything from sporting previews e.g. grand national, football matches, betting related analysis and reviews of websites in our betting tools betting directory. You can also showcase the most talented writers on our sports writing website dedicated to showcasing sports writers and helping them get more work.

We pay decent beer money to anyone who is good enough for a regular slot so please let me know if you are interested by contacting us.

If writing is not your forte then maybe tipping is and if you are a top quality tipster we’d also like to hear from you.



Best Cheltenham Offers

Best Cheltenham Offers

With Cheltenham starting tomorrow, we thought we’d bring you the best bookmakers free bets and offers.

Our horse racing tipsters are in fact amongst the best there are on the internet and you can see their up to date and very accurate betting records by visiting our TipsterTable section. Ron E landed a 40-1 winner yesterday and some managed to get odds of 65.0 on Betfair!

There are 3 of the best Cheltenham offers below but you can find more on our Cheltenham free bets and offers page which we’ll keep updating throughout the festival.


Betfair Sportsbook - Cheltenham Free Bets

Betfair Sportsbook – Cheltenham Free Bets

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Racebets – Ruby Walsh Winner 7/1!

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Bet365 Channel 4/1

Bet365 Channel 4/1

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Holy Grail Q and A

Holy Grail Q and A

A brilliant set of results mid-week with Wigan shocking Norwich away from home and our highest bet on Stoke landing pretty easily too. The profit was over the £500 mark and could have been much greater had Doncaster not conceded in the 94th minute thanks to injury-time specialist Jermaine Beckford.

This week’s Holy Grail selections have been sent to those who have expressed an interest. We have decided not to post on the blog this week but if you register your interest by emailing us and you will be sent the selections.

We have had a lot of interest in the Holy Grail on and due the volume of questions and comments we’ve had we created a Q and A a few weeks back that we sent to all those who contacted us. There are a few who we didn’t send this too and this is why we are posting the blog below.


‘How does the Holy Grail work?’

Without wanting to give too much away the Holy Grail software uses a combination of many factors to determine each side’s relative chances of winning a football match. If you are interested in or follow football as closely as we do you will know there are many factors that impact the result of any one game – the previous results of both sides, home and away form, the confidence of the players on each side, injuries, new managers, team reputations, red cards, etc … even good and bad luck, too. Based on these the software will calculate what it believes to be the relative chance of the game ending in a home win, an away win, and a draw (e.g. Newcastle: 40%, Liverpool 31%, Draw: 29%). The system would then compare these calculated changes against what the bookies give the relative chances of each result are (achieved by dividing by 1 the decimal odds offered, e.g. decimal odds of 2.5 mean a 40% chance of that result occurring as 1 / 2.5 = 0.4). Following this comparison it will choose the outcome with the biggest positive difference, i.e. the outcome where the difference is greatest between the chances given to the outcome by the Holy Grail software and the chances given to the outcome by the bookmaker. As an example, say the Holy Grail software calculated the home side to have a 45% chance of victory, the away side 25% and the draw 30%, while the bookmaker is offering us odds of 1.83 for the home side (so, 55%), 6.00 for the away side (16%) and 3.10 for the draw (32%). In this example the software would recommend to bet on the away side as this is the only outcome where the calculated chance of success is greater than that offered by the bookmaker (differences: home -10%, away +9%, draw -2%).


Can it be improved further still? We are confident it can and we are trying to find the time to do so.


‘Is the Holy Grail guaranteed to make money?’

No system is ever guaranteed to make money but the Holy Grail has already made us a decent amount of money and we believe it will continue to do so. It has been back tested against 11 seasons and has now been proofed for over half of this season. The Holy Grail system is a computerized system that relies on no human input and the solid data we have acquired ourselves and through the public Bet Monkey profile give us as much confidence as any system can possibly have in generating future profits.


‘What kind of selections does the Holy Grail system go for? How many does it place each week?’

The system will always either choose the home or away side to win the game – it has been configured to never select draw as this made the system more profitable. Although the system doesn’t explicitly preference one or the other a home win is selected around 37% of the time and an away win in 63% of bets. As explained in our opening post the system is currently set up to select only the most profitable bets – 26% of all games will be betted on, to be exact. This means on a full weekend of English fixtures we can be expected to place a bet on around 15 of the 58 matches taking place in the top 5 divisions. The stakes of the bets we are placing are increasing in time as we deliberately ramp up the system as the bank grows – last weekend, for example, the average bet was £102 but will be larger next weekend having since increased the ‘betting factor’, as we call it. The average odds of the selections the system recommends is about 4.10 – meaning, for full-fixture weekends, we’d only need to get a correct prediction from 3.73 of the 15 matches (25%) in order to break-even, on average – i.e. winning 3 bets would make a slight loss and 4 a slight profit. This season we have correctly predicted 149 of 444 matches (34%) – you can see that the system only relies on a small number of bets being correct and the fact we’re placing more losing bets than winning bets does not matter in terms of the profitability.


‘Do you always bet on whatever selections the HG recommends or are there sometimes tips you override?’

Good question! As it happens no, being football followers ourselves and having our own (human!) pre-conceived opinion on a team’s chances, we haven’t always followed the tips to the letter when betting on games this season. Having said that we have only (deliberately) deviated away from ONCE the whole season – and we were punished for doing so! As the bets are currently placed manually when it came to betting on his local team, and being a season-ticket follower of that team and seeing how poor the team had been playing of late, the bet placer decided to override the HG’s tip to bet on his side when playing away at their local rivals. When his team ultimately scored a last-minute winner he experienced a mixture of emotions – delight at the victory but regret at missing out on a £400 profit! This actually served as a harsh lesson for us – the automated software didn’t make its (simulated) profits by using human-like emotions but by using cold, hard mathematics / statistics. The key lesson is the tips should be followed even when they appear unlikely. If the creators of the HG were better tipsters than the HG itself there would’ve been no need to create the software in the first place!


‘Do you worry about having to stake such large stakes each week? It looks like you must have a fair amount of money in the first place in order to be able to make the bets’

As a group we have invested a total of £6,310 into the system and our balance currently stands at £10,834. The system will work just as well with lower or higher banks, as you might imagine. It certainly is a little scary when you add up the total amount staked on bets this season (currently £29,720!) but a few things make this figure more palatable. Firstly, all the system is doing turning over the bank over and over again, slowly building up a profit, in time. Secondly, due to the results of the simulation and actual results when placing bets this season we have faith that, if we follow the tips as provided by the system, we will get more than our stake back if we are patient enough.


‘Does the HG work for any other leagues / countries?’ and ‘Does the Holy Grail software work for the Spanish leagues?’

Yes – the system is also profitable in Germany (ROI 9.2%) over the previous 7 seasons but only breaks-even in Spain and France. These latter countries need some more thought and work – we’re hoping to focus on these divisions some more in 2015 but at the moment the English leagues are our focus.


‘Are we concerned that bookmakers will cut their odds when our selections are released?’

We have been monitoring bookies odds and so far there seems to have been very little or no effect when alerts for the Bet Monkey tips have been generated or the more recently published full selections have been revealed. Bookmakers are usually confident in their odds but they are affected by the stakes taken, so it is possible that odds could be cut in future and this will definitely be something we shall be continuing to monitor.


‘If odds are cut, how do we know that they’re still good enough to bet on?’

As above, we haven’t noticed any detrimental changes to the odds since our selections have been released and bet on by us so far and it has usually been possible to achieve the recommended price or very close to it. All the selections we advise and bet on will have a significant long term edge and so the odds would have to move very drastically in most cases for the selection to no longer be value. That said, we are considering making available the odds that the system believes is the true price.


‘How can we apply your staking method to our own betting banks?’

As we have already confirmed, the HG system is profitable to level stakes and so you can stick to this, using absolutely no more than a maximum of 2% of your betting funds. If possible the percentage should be even lower to further reduce risk but any higher than 2% could see your bank fail to recover from an downturn in results. If you are looking to maximise your returns using our ad-hoc Kelly Staking then you can apply the percentage that we are betting of our funds to your own betting bank. We have already confirmed what our betting bank stands at and any future stakes will now have a percentage figure against it.


‘Are you going to continue sending round the tips for the rest of the season?’ and ‘Can you also let me know how much you are charging for subscription to this service?’

Yes! Anybody that has expressed their interest via email will be added to the list and receive the full HG selections completely free of charge until the end of the season. Bet Monkey will continue to post the best 5 of these most weeks too but the email with all selections will go out first. We are undecided about any future charges and want to wait until the season to assess performance and interest.

‘Has the system been released on any other sites to date?’

Until recently we hadn’t but we have now started sending our selections to the GreenAllOver tipster competition and some verification sites too ( and The Secret Betting Club). Obviously the results of these trials/records will differ from that of our own complete records but we are confident in our edge and the performance of any decent-sized sample of the tips should show a positive yield.

  ‘Who created the HG?’

We would love to try and claim a team of dedicated, highly-paid mathematicians-come-engineers are responsible for the system that has been created. However, only one person is responsible for creating the software and we’ve vowed to keep their actual identity a secret. Before I’d met the creator of the Holy Grail system I can’t say I’d ever really met anyone I’d personally describe as a ‘genius’ but within only half-an-hour of talking to them it was soon clear just how intelligent a person they were. They won’t also mind me saying what the creator lacks in social skills they certainly make up for in ingenuity – it’s no surprise, if anyone was able to create an automated piece of software that consistently out-witted the bookmakers, it was him (there you go – it’s a ‘him’!).


‘Did you manage a celebratory drink at the weekend?’

Ha! Yes, as it happens we did raise a glass to the HG last weekend – it was the greatest weekend of profit to date, after all. However, without wishing to sound too boring or repetitive we do try and keep the results in perspective, reminding ourselves that long-term profits are what we should be focusing on.

Holy Grail Selections 3rd/4th March

Holy Grail Selections 3rd/4th March

It all started off so positively at the weekend with a very convincing win for Crystal Palace in the early kick off away at West Ham and a nice winner at odds of around 3/1. Unfortunately we had little joy elsewhere and Sheffield Wednesday were the only other winner, also just short of 3/1. Total loss for us was £460.25.

It seems as though we are going through a bit of a bad spell at the moment but it depends on how big the subset of data you look at is. 10-15 matches on any given week is a small sample size and looking back a month or so ago to when we announced the Holy Grail selections on the BettingTools blog, our profits have still increased from £2940 to 3220.19.

Obviously it can depend when you start following a system too but if you stick with it and keep the stakes sensible the value prices will come in and when they do the profits are big. Don’t be one of those who dip in and out of a system and who misses the good times!

Below are the midweek selections. Please note that some odds have changed since we sent to confirmed subscribers last night. If you want to be included on this list you need to email us.

One important thing to note is that although we use Kelly stakes they are a massively watered down version of Kelly due to so many matches taking places at once. All of the selections contain a decent amount of value however (hence why we don’t bet on every game) so small price movements will not turn the selection into a no bet in nearly all cases. We are considering providing the actual odds and full Kelly stakes but this are as yet undecided.

Selection Odds Stake Bank %
HULL vs Sunderland 2.15 £78.85 0.83%
Watford vs FULHAM 5 £91.07 0.96%
Bradford vs CRAWLEY TOWN 8 £82.67 0.87%
Colchester vs NOTTS COUNTY 3.75 £113.56 1.19%
MILTON KEYNES DONS vs Chesterfield 1.83 £84.24 0.88%
Port Vale vs OLDHAM 3 £89.59 0.94%
Preston vs DONCASTER 4.75 £96.94 1.02%
ROCHDALE vs Crewe 1.91 £138.90 1.46%
YEOVIL vs Walsall 2.7 £118.63 1.24%
Carlisle vs CHELTENHAM 3.5 £79.07 0.83%
QPR vs Arsenal 7 £197.43 2.07%
STOKE vs Everton 2.6 £229.00 2.40%
WEST HAM vs Chelsea 6 £86.57 0.91%
Norwich vs WIGAN 7 £83.19 0.87%