Yearly Archives: 2015


Tenerife vs Alcorcon


Tenerife vs Alcorcon

Fixture: Tenerife vs Alcorcon
Date: January 4th, 2016
Competition: Spanish Segunda
Venue: York Street, Tenerife
Kick-Off Time: 19:30
Betting Odds: Tenerife(2.74) Draw(3.15) Alcorcon(3.10)

Tenerife

— Didn’t register a shot on target at Valladolid in their previous game in a 4-1 loss
— Have the exact same number of points as at the same point last season
— Have drawn 3 of their last 5 league games
— Only lost 1 of their last 7 league games

Alcorcon

— Didn’t register a shot on target at home to Albacete in their last game in a 1-0 win
— Not lost in their last 5 league games
— Have won 3 of their last 5 league games
— Have been leading at half-time in 3 of their last 5 league matches






Girona vs Valladolid


Girona vs Valladolid

Fixture: Girona vs Valladolid
Date: January 4th, 2016
Competition: Spanish Segunda
Venue: York Street, Girona
Kick-Off Time: 19:30
Betting Odds: Girona(2.22) Draw(3.25) Valladolid(4.00)

Girona

— Didn’t register a shot on target at Mallorca in their last match in a 1-1 draw
— Took 9 fewer games to reach current total of 19 points last season
— Only won 1 of their last 7 league games
— Have lost 4 of their last 7 league games

Valladolid

— Didn’t register a shot on target at home to Tenerife last time out in a 4-1 win
— Are 9 places lower in league than at the same point last season (13th vs 4th)
— Have been leading at half-time in 4 of their last 7 league matches
— Only lost 2 of their last 9 league games






Sp Gijon vs Getafe


Sp Gijon vs Getafe

Fixture: Sp Gijon vs Getafe
Date: January 4th, 2016
Competition: Spanish Primera Division
Venue: York Street, Sp Gijon
Kick-Off Time: 19:30
Betting Odds: Sp Gijon(2.42) Draw(3.35) Getafe(3.45)

Sp Gijon

— Didn’t register a shot on target at Eibar 5 days ago in a 2-0 loss
— Have lost 5 of their last 6 league games
— Not kept a clean sheet in 6 league matches
— Not led at half-time in 6 league matches

Getafe

— Couldn’t find a way past La Coruna in their last game in a 0-0 draw
— Have the exact same number of points as at the same point last season
— Have drawn 4 of their last 6 league games
— Only won 1 of their last 9 league games






Recording Bets


Recording Bets

Recording Bets, Using Performance Graphs and Analysing Staking Plans

In the last article we started looking at recording our bets using The Staking Machine and we continue with that theme in this article, however at this point I am also going to introduce the different types of staking plans available in TSM.

I have added another 100 bets to the record, which now makes 244 bets in TSM in total. There’s still more bets to enter! We will see some great examples of periods of losing bets, periods of winning bets, effect on the betting bank, and gain a really good insight into bet management over the next couple of articles.

At this point we are starting to see some interesting patterns emerge. Check out the video below to see how its all starting to take shape

From the video you can see there are now 244 bets in the system. The number of wins total 38 so far, which equates to a 15.6% strike rate. This is more than the Required Strike Rate of 13.3% so we are still ahead of the game.

Average odds of the selections has been 9.70, with average winning odds of 7.50.

The Estimated Losing Streak at this point, determined from all the bets processed so far, is now 32.4 according to TSM. So if I was using this as a guide to my betting bank I now have a good picture of a ‘worst case scenario’ and need to start ensuring I my bank is durable enough to sustain a loss of 33 bets in a row, which in this instance it is as we started with £100 and the current total now stands at £181.80 using level stakes of £2.00.

We have hit a purple patch about now, however the longest losing run to this point has been 22 bets, and that was between bet # 100-121.

The betting bank is still looking pretty healthy at this point, and the Edge I have is still around 17% so it’s worth continuing with these bets.

The interesting thing to note is if I change the staking plan to Bookies Bank, which is my preferred method of staking, then the bank balance increases to £208.61 and stakes have only marginally increased, the largest stake at this point reaching £3.24 which is still very manageable.

We will look at bet analysis in more detail in the next article, but for now I want to focus on staking plans and then touch on the available graphs.

I can see by the Frequency Of Winning Odds graph that I do best at odd of between 4.50 – 5.00 and over 10, which is also born out by looking at the stats on the bettingtools.co.uk website under the BVSystemBets profile.

You should be starting to get a better understanding of how this information can best benefit you as a punter by now. It allows you to play to your strengths and minimise your bets by focusing on the areas where you are strongest – in this case I should be focusing on bets around 7/2 – 4/1 and also on those that are greater than 9/1 because this is where I seem to be performing best. By reducing bets on other odds ranges that I perform less well at I can see that my profitability will increase and my stake requirement will decrease. My betting bank should start to grow quicker in theory due to less wasted stakes.

Knowledge is a wonderful thing, and when used in this way it provides better betting opportunities and more focus.
Check out the video, and in the next article we start to look at analysis in more detail and how you can use this information to really start to make serious inroads into making money from your bets.

I also have an article going up about selections systems later this week that you may find useful – a couple of good resources you can use, and some possible strategies that you may or may not find useful.






Everton vs Tottenham


Everton vs Tottenham

Fixture: Everton vs Tottenham
Date: January 3rd, 2016
Competition: English Premier League
Venue: York Street, Everton
Kick-Off Time: 16:00
Betting Odds: Everton(2.68) Draw(3.60) Tottenham(2.84)

Everton

— Most goals conceded at home in Premier League (19)
— Scored 3 goals from 3 shots on target against Stoke last Monday but went down 4-3
— Only won 1 of their last 6 league games
— Only lost 2 of their last 9 league games

Tottenham

— Found a way past Watford 6 days ago with a 2-1 home victory
— Have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 league matches
— Only lost 1 of their last 18 league games
— Have been leading at half-time in 7 of their last 10 league matches






Crystal Palace vs Chelsea


Crystal Palace vs Chelsea

Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
Date: January 3rd, 2016
Competition: English Premier League
Venue: York Street, Crystal Palace
Kick-Off Time: 13:30
Betting Odds: Crystal Palace(4.30) Draw(3.50) Chelsea(2.04)

Crystal Palace

— Couldn’t find a way past Swansea 6 days ago in a 0-0 draw
— Have 18 more points than at the same stage last season (31 vs 13)
— Not lost in their last 6 league games
— Have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 league matches

Chelsea

— Drew 0-0 at Man United last Monday
— Took 11 fewer games to reach current total of 20 points last season
— Have won 4 of their last 5 league games away at Crystal Palace
— Only won 1 of their last 6 league games






Valencia vs Real Madrid


Valencia vs Real Madrid

Fixture: Valencia vs Real Madrid
Date: January 3rd, 2016
Competition: Spanish Primera Division
Venue: York Street, Valencia
Kick-Off Time: 19:30
Betting Odds: Valencia(6.00) Draw(4.70) Real Madrid(1.60)

Valencia

— Two goals a-piece at home to Getafe in their last match
— Have lost 5 of their last 6 league games when playing at home to Real Madrid
— Have drawn 4 of their last 5 league games
— Not won in their last 5 league games

Real Madrid

— Most goals scored away from home in top five English divisions (16)
— Outplayed 15th-placed-placed Sociedad in their last game and ran out 3-1 winners
— Have won 4 of their last 5 league games
— Have been leading at half-time in 4 of their last 5 league matches






Zaragoza vs Huesca


Zaragoza vs Huesca

Fixture: Zaragoza vs Huesca
Date: January 3rd, 2016
Competition: Spanish Segunda
Venue: York Street, Zaragoza
Kick-Off Time: 18:15
Betting Odds: Zaragoza(2.02) Draw(3.40) Huesca(4.40)

Zaragoza

— Didn’t register a shot on target at Gimnastic last time out in a 3-1 loss
— Only the 3rd ever league meeting between these two sides
— Have kept 8 clean sheets in their last 13 league matches
— Have been leading at half-time in 3 of their last 5 league matches

Huesca

— Didn’t register a shot on target at home to Leganes last time out in a 1-1 draw
— Have lost 3 of their last 5 league games
— Only won 1 of their last 7 league games
— Not kept a clean sheet in 7 league matches






La Coruna vs Villarreal


La Coruna vs Villarreal

Fixture: La Coruna vs Villarreal
Date: January 3rd, 2016
Competition: Spanish Primera Division
Venue: York Street, La Coruna
Kick-Off Time: 17:15
Betting Odds: La Coruna(2.74) Draw(3.30) Villarreal(2.98)

La Coruna

— Drew 0-0 at Getafe 4 days ago
— Took 14 more games to reach current total of 27 points last season
— Not lost in their last 8 league games
— Have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 league matches

Villarreal

— Were outplayed at last time out against Sociedad but won the game 2-0
— Have won 11 of their last 18 league games
— Have been losing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 league matches
— Only lost 1 of their last 5 league games






Ath Bilbao vs Las Palmas


Ath Bilbao vs Las Palmas

Fixture: Ath Bilbao vs Las Palmas
Date: January 3rd, 2016
Competition: Spanish Primera Division
Venue: York Street, Ath Bilbao
Kick-Off Time: 17:15
Betting Odds: Ath Bilbao(1.46) Draw(4.70) Las Palmas(9.40)

Ath Bilbao

— Edged past 5th-placed-placed Celta 4 days ago and won the game 1-0
— Only the 5th ever league meeting between these two sides
— Have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 league matches
— Have won 6 of their last 9 league games

Las Palmas

— Scored 4 goals from 4 shots on target against Granada last Wednesday in a 4-1 win
— Are 15 places lower in league than at the same point last season (16th vs 1st)
— Have lost 3 of their last 5 league games
— Not drawn in their last 5 league games