Monthly Archives: October 2014


Premier League Value Bets 1st-3rd November


Premier League Value Bets 1st-3rd November

Premier League Value Bets 1st Nov to 3rd Nov

A small loss last week and whilst I was happy that I was on the right side of the prices,  I must admit I was a little disappointed with the West Ham win. I rarely tinker with the percentages once decided and even when I do it doesn’t change the selection too often. Last week however it did and it changed the selection from West Ham to the draw. I did say that City would find it tough ad there was value on both selections but unfortunately I was on the wrong one this time.

I do love a big draw price though and this week we have 6.5 and 8.5 available in the Arsenal v Burnley and Chelsea v QPR matches respectively. Goals are hard to come by in football against any opposition and both of these prices look a tad big to me.

Newcastle v Liverpool kicks off the weekend just after midday on Saturday. It may not quite be the exciting fixture it was a few years ago but it will be interesting to see how the Geordies who have beaten Tottenham and Man City in their last 2 matches fair against a Liverpool side who are struggling to make the impact they had last season.

 






Premier League Value Bets 25th-27th October


Premier League Value Bets 25th-27th October

Premier League Value Bets 25th-27th October

A good profit made last week with 6 correct results from 10. Fewer winners and bigger profits are preferable though of course but I generally thought the big teams would have straight forward wins last week and was proved right.

One result that did make me look stupid however was Sunderland’s 8-0 loss away at Southampton. The Saints continue to impress and based on the fixtures and results up until last week I’m still adamant that 6.5 was a value bet but sometimes freak results happen that make you look VERY stupid! The defending by the black Cats was shocking and there were definitely at least a couple of blunders that would have made Danny Bakers Own Goals and Gaffes.

I think West Ham can make it difficult for City and this Hammers side does have goals in it. The draw is the best value according to my estimates but a win for the Hammers is also value. I wouldn’t back Liverpool odds on against many teams (if any) at the moment so I’m happy to be on Hull at a huge 8.5.

Man United continue to let me down very time I think they’ll start to show some consistency and the way Chelsea are playing at the moment I’d have United at a bigger price than 3.0. I know it sounds ridiculous but it’s a draw at best for the red devils if you ask me.

My Sheet tells me Tottenham are the best value this weekend and whilst I do think they’ll beat Newcastle comfortably, I’d be more confident of backing Chelsea in the draw no bet market at 1.8 with Bwin.






Lille v Everton Betting Preview


Lille v Everton Betting Preview

Date: Thursday 23rd October
Venue: Stadium Lille-Métropole
KO Time: 18:00 (BST)

The top two teams in Group H of the Europa league meet at the Métropole Stadium this Thursday evening.

Everton are the only team in the group to record a win after the first 2 matches and although a draw would not be disastrous for both, Lille need the win more after two draws and the two teams below them playing each other..

Team form

Lille L-W-D-L-L

Lille had a decent start to their Ligue 1 campaign but their form has nose-dived somewhat in recent weeks and they have now only one win in their last 5 matches. They’ve suffered back to back league defeats at Lyon and Guingamp.

Their two 1-1 draws in the Europa league against opposition they’d expect to beat (Wolfsburg and Krasnodar) emphasises their problem, which is scoring goals.

Lille were of course originally in the Champion’s League, having been dumped out by Porto after failing to score in either qualifying leg.

Everton L-D-D-L-W

Everton have had an unexpectedly poor start to their Premier League campaign but look like they might be back on track after an impressive 3-0 win at Aston Villa. They have been conceding far too many goals in the Premier League (16 in their first 7 matches) and they’ll be pleased to have kept a clean sheet on Saturday.

Everton had a convincing win in their opening Europa League match against Wolfsburg and even after a disappointing draw against Krasnodar, they’ll still be confident of qualifying easily form this group.

Key players and team news

Everton: Romalu Lukaku

Lukaku was a revelation for Everton last year, causing many to question Chelsea Manager Jose Mourinho letting him go to the toffees on loan. He’s had a slow start to this season but was back on the score sheet on Saturday and Everton will need him at his best to use his physical presence to crack the stubborn Lille defence.

Lille: RioMavuba

The Lille captain has missed a few matches due to suspension and this has been a big factor in their loss of form. He was back at the weekend however and manager René Girard will now be looking to the French International to rally his troops and get some confidence back into the team.

Betting advice

I think this has the makings of a low-scoring affair. Lille have only conceded 7 goals in their 10 league matches and 2 in the Europa League and Everton don’t need to push for a win.

If there is to be a winner it will likely be Everton, so my advice is to back them with Bet365 who will refund your bet if it ends 0-0 as part of their bore draw campaign.

Best bet Back Everton at 3.3 with Bet365






Introducing the Indian Super League


Introducing the Indian Super League

Indian Super League Opening Ceremony
Image by ArsenalFan700

Many people hadn’t heard much about the Indian Super League until a recent segment about it on BBC’s Football Focus. A lot of money is being pumped into it and with little information currenlty known it could be a chance for bettors to specialise on Indian Super League betting.

Doing the research and studying required to be a profitable bettor is alwyas easier when it’s fun and following the Indian Super League will definitely be that. Arsene Wenger is confident that the ISL will be successful and was quote dsaying, “I know that the people there (India) watch the Premier League and I’m convinced that with such a huge population, it will take off.”

For a long time, it has been a common perception that India is but a sleeping giant in the football world. Even top officials like Sepp Blatter have said the same about the country’s football ambitions and expressed the hope that it will break the shackles and finally see a lot of development and interest in the game.

While the European leagues and the international tournaments are still watched a lot, it is the local leagues that need support. But until now, the Indian football body, AIFF has not been able to generate the kind of money or interest in the I-League as it had hoped.

But now, the Indian Super League has finally arrived and it is seen as something that will increase the interest in the game and get more youngsters involved. The star value that the ISL brings is phenomenal and people are sure to arrive in large numbers to the stadium to see their favourite players show their skills right in front of their eyes.

In fact, the main attraction of the ISL is the number of international stars that have signed up for the tournament. Legends such as Robert Pires, Nicholas Anelka, Freddie Ljungberg, Alessandro Del Piero have all signed up for various teams in the ISL.

And it’s not just the players that have added some much needed flair to the tournament; almost all the owners of the teams are Bollywood stars and former cricket superstars of the country.

For example, Kerala Blasters is owned by cricket legend Sachin Tendulkar while Atletico de Kolkata is jointly owned by the Spanish champions Atletico Madrid and former Indian cricket captain Sourav Ganguly. Bollywood stars such as Ranbir Kapoor and John Abraham also have stakes in various teams and they have all added glamour to the game.

Even the facilities have been upgraded in the stadiums, with synthetic pitches ensuring that the game itself is good to watch and the stars can show their skills.

All the international stars taking part in the game can only be good for Indian football as even in the short time they are going to stay, they would be able to impart a lot of knowledge to the local lads and improve the standard of the game in India.

Teams:

The eight teams are Atletico de Kolkata, Chennaiyin FC, Delhi Dynamos, FC Goa, FC Pune City, Mumbai City FC, Kerala Blasters FC, Northeast United.

Format:

All teams play all others twice – home and away – before the top four teams qualify for the semi-finals. The semi-finals will also be on a home and away basis which will be followed by the winner-take-all final. There is a total of 61 games in this first season of the Indian Super League.

UK punters can watch Indian Super League matches on Star Gold which is alsoavailable through the SkyGo app while continental bettors can find them on Eurosport or Eurosport player.

The Indian Super League matches are underway and are taking place most days from now up until the final which is on December 20th. The best place to bet on them is at Bet365 who offer the widest range of markets on the Indian Super League.

 

 






Premier League Value Bets 18th-20th October


Premier League Value Bets 18th-20th October

Premier League Value Bets 19-20th October

The premier league is finally back after what seems like an age. The international fixtures were very lacklustre especially as far as England were concerned but at least the points on on the board. Hopefully the premier league can provide more entertainment however.

My selections are a bit different to usual this week as I see value on some of the big favourites. this is rare but this is often because the like of Man City, Chelsea etc are price around 1.3 which I virtually never see as value. This week, the prices are bigger and although I’m well aware the opposition is stronger I believe the match ups are favourable.

The likes of City and Chelsea only really struggle to break down more defensive minded teams. Tottenham in particular are a great match up for city as emphasized by their 6-0 win at the Etihad last season. Palace were more defensive under Pulis than they are now and quite frankly I fancy Chelsea against anyone right now.

Man United are also a decent price at 1.76 away at West Brom. They’ve had a shakey start to the season and I can see why they are that price but I can see them really coming together in the next few weeks and when we look back this sort of price may look a tad big.

According to my estimates Stoke are the best value selection on Saturday. It’s a tough one to call however, namely because Swansea have been so impressive but Stoke are usually difficult to beat at the Britannia as we all know. Losses to Villa and Leicester at home suggest otherwise but these narrow defeats good prove to be a blip.

I personally like the look of Sunderland at 7s. Again, Southampton like Swansea have been very impressive under Ronald Koeman but that is a big price for a team capable of springing a surprise.






Lens v PSG Betting Preview


Lens v PSG Betting Preview

Date: October 17, 2014
Venue: Stade Felix Bollaert, Lens
Kick-off time: 19:30 BST

Third Bottom Lens host third from top PSG at the Felix Bollaert Stadium. Lens haven’t won any of the last 5 meetings with PSG but have managed 3 draws.

Lens form: L-D-L-L-D

Lens are really struggling for goals with only 2 to their name in the last 4 matches. They’ve failed to win any of their last 3 matches against Rennes, Caen and Evian TG who are all side they would expect to take points from.

PSG form: D-W-D-W-D

PSG will probably still be stewing over the injury time equalizer they conceded against Monaco. They have now recorded 6 draws in their first 9 matches and quite clearly they are failing to put teams away. The Champion’s league match against Barcelona proved how good they can be but their big stars need to get themselves motivate for the French league matches too.

Key Players

Lens: Rudy Riou

With only 7 goals scored in 10 matches the Lens defence are going to be key to getting anything out of this game. Experience French keeper Rudy Riou will need to be at his very best to keep out PSG’s plethora of stars.

PSG: Lucas Moura

Zlatan Imbrahimovic is thought by many to be the key to PSG’s success and his goals do generally back this up. He’s been out injured recently however and even if he does make an appearance in this one he’s unlikely to be full throttle. Lucas Moura has struggled to live up to his 44 million transfer fee but he’s chipped in with a few goals of late and there’s no doubting the Brazilian attacking midfielder’s ability. He could be the key to unlocking the Lens defence.

Betting Advice

PSG had an impressive win against Barcelona in the champion’s league but motivation was high then and this away match at Lens could be quite tough. PSG have drawn 3 of their last 4 league matches and taking into account the head to head, taking Lens on a handicap or betting on under 2.5 goals looks the bet here.

Best Bet
Lens +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.9 (Bet365)






3 Reasons Not To Back Odds On Regularly


3 Reasons Not To Back Odds On Regularly

Odds On Bookmakers
Image by Kenneth Allen

We’ve seen a number of big odds on favourites lose recently in the sporting world. In the space of a week, Germany have failed to win despite being odds on against both Poland and the Republic of Ireland. This was a nation who won the world cup only a few months ago and the team that finished 3rd in the same competition, the Netherlands also lost 2-0 to Iceland when an odds on favourite.

You only have to look at a few of the top tipsters in our tipster competition and you will see that hardly any of them select odds on bets. A lot of people who are new to betting prefer to back the big “odds on” favourites but it is very hard to make them pay.

Here are 3 reasons not to back odds on regularly:

 

1) Risk always greater than return

Not necessarily a bad thing but it does make betting more stressful when you can lose a lot more than you can win. Most people don’t expect odds on bets to lose as often as they do and are therefore prone to overstaking. When you do have an inevitable loser it can more easily lead to chasing.

2) Not likely to be value

If a bet is odds on then it is usually a big favourite. This means that the majority of any money wagered or expected to be wagered will be on that selection. For the bookmakers to make them pay they need to make sure they don’t get these prices wrong and even if you back at the best market price more times than not you’ll be backing at true odds at best.

3) Any returns will be small

Even if you do manage to make odds on betting pay the returns that you would get are going to be small. You’ll struggle to find even the best tipsters online with a return of greater than a 3-5% return on investement. You therefore have to stake huge amounts of money on odds on bets to make them worthwhile.

The average bettor doesn’t have or can’t afford to risk the thousand of pounds you’d need to and the time invested looking for and waiting on the outcome of such bets would be better spent trying to find value in bigger prices. As you can see from the tipster table, by doing so you can achieve a return well above 10% and in some cases up to 25%.

 






Wales v Cyprus Betting Preview


Wales v Cyprus Betting Preview

Date: October 13, 2014
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff, United Kingdom
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST

Group B leaders, Wales will welcome Cyprus at their home ground in a very unpredictable group match. Wales have already won a match and drew their last one against Bosnia-Herzegovina, while Cyprus could not get a miracle result against Israel.

Wales are depleted in midfield and Cyprus will be looking to take advantage of that.

Wales form: D-W-L-W-D

Against Bosnia, Wales were able to keep the Bosnian midfield quiet for large parts and were able to create some chances for themselves. A lucky escape for penalty around half time aside, Wales could comfortably repel the Bosnian advances.

Even without good players like Aaron Ramsey and Joe Allen, the team performed admirably well and Coach Chris Coleman will be happy with what he has seen so far.

Cyprus form: D-L-L-W-L

Cyprus could not continue their ‘giant killing’ form against Israel and succumbed to a 2-1 defeat. After defeating Bosnia-Herzegovina, the Cyprus team were underwhelming. Israel was all over Cyprus and was ahead with two goals in the first half.

Cyprus did not have any momentum and a hard working Israeli side left exposed their functional deficiencies in midfield. They did fight back with a goal in the second half, but apart from that Cyprus could not do anything more. Against Wales, it will be interesting to see how they play.

Key Players

Wales: Gareth Bale

Gareth Bale’s performance against Bosnia was not a great one, but some chances he created were out of nowhere and that is why he is dangerous on such occasions. His dribbling and speed on one side, he has added another dimension to his game after joining Real Madrid. Cyprus needs to be wary of him

Cyprus: Antonis Georgallides

The current custodian of the Cyprus team if selected against Wales will have a huge part and has to rally his defence against the likes of Gareth Bale.

Betting Advice

Wales (1.45 with BetVictor) will win this by a comfortable margin, while Gareth Bale (1.72 with bet365 to be anytime scorer) can be expected to drill in at least one.






Khazakhstan v Czech Republic Betting Preview


Khazakhstan v Czech Republic Betting Preview

Date: October 13, 2014
Venue: Astana Arena, Astana, Kazakhstan
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST

The Group A qualifying fixture between Kazakhstan and Czech Republic may be a mismatch on paper but no one can rule the hosts out after a strong performance against Netherlands. With the home team as the underdogs, this is one match that can go anyway.

Czech Republic are at the top of the group with two wins from their two fixtures while Kazakhstan are in fourth with 1 point from their opening two games.

Kazakhstan form: L-D-W-W-L

The former Soviet Republic does not possess great European pedigree – their European journey is limited to only two Euro qualifying campaigns. It is safe to say that they do not have great expectations from this campaign either.

The home team fought well against Netherlands and looked the better side till Huntelaar came as a substitute and changed the complexion. With just a point from their earlier draw against fellow strugglers Latvia, it is a huge task to Kazakhstan to move into qualifying places.

Czech Republic form: W-W-L-L-D

Competing as an independent nation for just 20 years now, Czech Republic have qualified for every European Championship in that period. It speaks a lot about their pedigree and consistency at this level.

Czech started the campaign with a sensational win against Netherlands followed by a victory in Turkey. The mood in the camp is upbeat who now believe that qualification is possible.

Key Players

Kazakhstan: Renat Abdulin

The defender was the scorer and also a penalty-giver for Kazakhstan against the Dutch. He needs to put in a tidy shift if the hosts have any hopes of keeping the Czechs at bay.

Czech Republic: Borek Dockal

With one goal each from both the matches, the midfielder is slowly turning to be a key player for the visitors. Expect another high class performance from the energetic playmaker.

Betting Advice

Czech Republic are in good form and should win (1.5 with BetVictor) this game by at least a couple of goals. More than 2.5 goals is at 2.05 with bet365.






Gibraltar v Georgia Betting Preview


Gibraltar v Georgia Betting Preview

Date: 14th October, 2014
Venue: Estádio Do Algarve, Algarve, Portugal.
Kick off time: 19:45 hrs BST

Game week three of UEFA Euro 2016 qualifiers is about to start and in group D, last placed Gibraltar will play host to the fifth placed Georgia. Both the sides are yet to win a match in this event.

Georgia form: L-L-L-W-W

The away side are coming into this match after going with no momentum whatsoever. Their last three encounters have resulted in consecutive defeats. Their recent most loss came when they visited Scotland, where the final result was 1-0.

Prior to that match, they were routed 2-1 in their own backyard by Republic of Ireland. The last time Georgia won a match was in a friendly against Saudi Arabia in May earlier this year, where the score was 2-0.

Gibraltar form: L-L-W-D-L

Gibraltar have started their campaign in the event on an awful note. It is a nightmare that doesn’t seem to end for hosts. Their first match was against Poland, where they were defeated with a massive 7-0 score.

Same was the case when they carried their stigma to the Republic of Ireland. Their morale was completely drowned by the host nation, when by the end of the final whistle the scoreboard read 7-0.

Key Players

Georgia: Davit Kvirkvelia

With 58 caps, this defender is the most experienced player that Georgia has. He will have to bring in his experience to stop the Gibraltar attack and help his side to their first victory.

Gibraltar: Kyle Casciaro

He is the forward who can take his team to the win. With only six caps, the 27 year old striker will be looking to make his name on the international scale.

Betting Advice

Gibraltar is an inexperienced side and it shouldn’t be a problem for Georgia to defeat them comfortably (1.2 at William Hill). Instead BetVictor’s offer of 1.85 for more than 3.5 goals are much more tempting for this game.