The French Open is well under way and I Iike to wait a round or two generally to see how well players are playing for trying to find outright value. Some of you may remember the value bets I had on the Australian Open where I successfully picked 3 of the 4 women’s semi-finalists. Cibulkova and Li Na both made the final and after a bit of clever trading I’d amassed a profit of over £400 from 4 bets totalling £16!
I picked these value bets by printing out the tournament draw and filling it in deciding on who might match up well against who and then seeing where the potential value might lie. I still thought Serena and Nadal were likely winners but based on the tournament routes was able to see who might have an easy route should the big players falter.
Well, I’ve now done exactly the same thing for the French Open draws (men and women) and you won’t be too surprised to see that I make the men’s a Nadal v Djokovic final and the women’s a Sharapova v Ivanovic final! I have also found 4 bets for each of the men’s and women’s who I believe are value and have a better chance of winning than the odds suggest. I’m hoping at the very least that there might be a chance to trade some for the bigger prices but if not it will still be great fun following and cheering them on.
Give it a go yourself by downloading the French Open draws and printing them out.
Here are my value selections:
Ferrer – best odds are 19.0 with Betfair
Federer – best odds are 21.0 with Betfair
Berdych – best odds are 86 with Betfair
Gasquet – best odds are 301 with SportingBet
Bouchard – best odds are 25.0 with Betway
Petkovic – best odds are 81.0 with Coral
Makarova – best odds are 301 with SportingBet
Barthel – best odds are 151 with Unibet
Just a quick update on the lay bets analysis. You might remember that laying short priced favourites at a shorter price in play didn’t produce a profit to a fixed stake but the results looked good to a fixed liability. Well I have now trialled this with a £2 liability each time and the results weren’t nearly as impressive as the last lot of workings. The actual betting history csv can be found here in case you’re interested but the results summary from the Betfair Anlysis Tools re below.
Your actual profit and loss is: -£223.51
You risked a total of £1520.35 so this is an ROI of -14.7%
Your profit/loss for lay bets risking a liability of £100 each time would have been: -£10156.7 (-13.35% ROI)
After 761 bets a loss of £200 was made an ROI of -13.35%. This was disappointing as I had high hopes from the last set of data which was from a sample size of half this amount. So, why were the results so different and why no profit?
Looking back a bit closer it’s pretty obvious and if you take out the Tsonga win at 1.01 the first set of results would also have made a loss. This kind of approach seems pretty reliant on these huge wins at low prices and we didn’t get them this time such is the variance of these lays.
That’s not to say that there won’t be a handful of 1.01 favourites losing at The French Open next week but after a month and over 700 lay bets this strategy is definitely nowhere near as fruitful as I hoped and not worth continuing with.
It’s proving very difficult for me to find an automated way of profiting on the tennis without trading manually but I’ll keep trying. The attempts so far haven’t been particularly ingenious admittedly but I wanted to start simple.
The betfair analysis tool doesn’t take commission into account either and the results look even poorer after that. Overall I’m pretty surprised by the results and it based on the overall findings it seems you’d be better off backing favourites who start well as long as their price isn’t too low. 700 bets is a pretty decent sample size and you’re not going to be affected by variance backing favourites like we have been laying them here. Cue the next experiment… !
On a more positive note, our Premier League Value Selections finished in 3rd position (Under Webbo) in the Friendly Tipster League ran by Cassini at the Green All Over blog. Trying to make a profit based on Pinnacle’s closing prices is a tough test. It shows a lot about your true worth as a tipster and whether you have an edge or not. If anyone thinks they have what it takes then put your money (£25 to enter) where your mouth is and we’ll see you next season!
I’ll also be taking the same value identifying approach with the World Cup and will create a separate value selections sheet for that so keep your eyes peeled.
Last Premier League fixtures of the season and I’m proud to say we’ve provided a profit of over 6% on these selections this season. Man City should sew up the title today and the relegation places are sorted so there’s not too much chance of too much last day drama. Hopefully we can still land one or two big prices to add to the profits.
BET OF THE WEEKEND – Arsenal to beat Norwich at a now best price of 1.79 with Matchbook
Could Eurovision get much more of a joke? Probably not but that’s the point isn’t it really. Neighbouring countries voting each other, ridiculously camp outfits and this year a bearded lady singing for Austria.
The UK apparently have a good chance this year or are the bookies just keen to give us all that impression? Probably. The song may be a bit better than the previous few years entries by washed up pop bands but the title ‘The Children of the Universe’ sounds a bit corny to me and is trying a bit too hard.
Sweden’s entry justifies being favourite as it screams Eurovision and I’d be surprised if this didn’t make the top 3. Austria (bearded lady) and Netherlands (too slow and cool for Eurovision) are 2nd and 3rd favourites but are both lays in my opinion. Then again, I just remmebred that Dana International won in 1998 so I guess anything is possible!
Ruth Lorenzo the half Spanish one from X factor (2008) is singing for Spain and she is a decent outside bet at 60-1. Her entry is very Celion Dion-esque.
Maybe you’ve been invited to a Eurovision party or maybe the missus won’t turn the TV over but if you fancy a little interest bet make it with Betfred who are offering money back (up to £50) if your chosen country finishes second.
Lovely weekend for the value selections with West Ham, Sunderland an dSouthampton winning at juicy prices and wins for Newcastle and Stoke topping up the profit.
There’s now only 13 matches left and it’s impossible to finish the season in the red so I’m particluarly pleased. The current ROI using for the Premier League Value Selections is still over 6% with over 200 units profit gained.
Fancy United to make it a double over hul tonight with the Tigers resting players for the FA cup final. Sunderland are on a roll with 3 wins in a row including the last over Man Utd at Old Trafford and I’m happy to back them at over even money against an unpredictable West Brom.
Hav eto admit that I didn’t really want to back against City against Villa tomorrow because I think it should be an easy one for them. Odds of 1.17 though offer no value and teh draw is the best option of those lofty prices.
BET OF THE WEEKEND – Sunderland +1.5 Asian Handicap to beat Man Utd at 1.85 with Ladbrokes