I managed to just about breakeven on the mid-week results thanks to West Ham’s parking of the bus on Wednesday. Man City were the only other winners for me and without the big draw price it would have been a disappointing week indeed. Updated sheet here.
We could count ourselves a little unlucky though with Southampton leading at Arsenal and also West Brom who were leading 2-0 against Aston Villa. Results ill almost win and so nearly lose and the important thing is to focus on value and not try and predict who will win.
Prime example being Stoke at home to Man Utd on Saturday. I actually wanted the sheet to tell me to back Man Utd because I think that now that Rooney and Van Persie have returned and that they’ve added Mata they’ll beat Stoke who are in poor form. I couldn’t however give them a percentage higher than 62 away from home against a side that has only lost 1 of their 13 home matches! It will certainly be interesting to see what happens here.
Sunderland are the form team coming into the Tyne and Wear Derby and their price of 4.33 looks pretty juicy indeed. Not only are they in form but they won the reverse fixture and Newcastle are now without Cabaye and the suspended Remy.
West Ham continue to be undervalued in my opinion after those cup thrashings and odds of nearly 2-1 are decent against a Swansea side that can lose to anyone on a bad day.
Cardiff v Norwich is a tough one to call. Solskjaer has been one of the busiest managers in the transfer market with Fabio and Wilfried Zaha amongst others expected to sign. The consensus is that Cardiff will win this one but this and the fact that Cardiff have picked up only 1 point from their last 7 matches, gives us value on Norwich.
Everton should have no problems against Villa and I can’t see anything other than a home win. Everton are brilliant at keeping the ball, something which Villa struggle with. The only doubt is the loss of Romalu Lukaku but other Everton players have stepped up to the goalscoring plate in recent weeks.
Southampton to beat Fulham is my favourite bet this weekend purely because they have a good record against the weaker teams in the division. The Saints are an organised outfit and I’d be surprised if the leakiest defence in the league were to keep a clean sheet against them here.
Hull have proved a match for anyone on their day and although I think beating Spurs will be tough, odds of 3-1 for the home side are the value play here.
I don’t expect West Brom to beat Liverpool on Saturday but the sheet gives the value to the Baggies. Liverpool have had a knack of letting punters down when expected to win easily over the last few years and let’s hope this is another example.
There’s no value backing Arsenal at 1.25 against Crystal Palace. If they were free scoring like Man City this price would be justified but they’re not and Pulis has tightened up the defence which has kept 7 clean sheets in their last 13 games.. The draw is a big price at 6-1 for me.
Finally Man City at home against anyone is a no brainer! Chelsea will be the biggest test City have had at the Etihad this season but goals win matches and City have much more firepower than the blues.
Bet of the Weekend – Southampton to beat Fulham at 2.2 with William Hill