Yearly Archives: 2014


Premier League Value Bets 1st Jan 2015


Premier League Value Bets 1st Jan 2015

Value Bets Premier League New Years Day

December has been a poor month so hopefully our fortunes will turn around in January. I’ve not been inspired to write much about the selections recently and want to look at writing more interesting blog pieces. So I might not be posting these on the blog anymore and anyone wishing to keep up to date with these can check out the spreadsheet here: http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/value-finder-prem-14-15.xlsx

I need to update it with the latest results but the selections should always be present the night before the matches.

Happy new year to you all and may 2015 be a lucky one for you!

 






World Bet Exchange (WBX) Review


World Bet Exchange (WBX) Review

World Bet Exchange (WBX)

WBX or World Bet Exchange is a betting exchange I’d been meaning to check out for a long time. An avid user of Betfair and sometimes Betdaq too, it can be very easily to discount any competition as not being worthwhile but I was pleasing surprised by many aspects of the London based exchange.

Firstly the website is excellent. It’s not flashy but it reminds me in many ways of the old Betfair style which I still choose as my default preference today. Some aspects of Betfair take too long over the exchange website itself and WBX has to have one of the quickest websites to navigate around and place your bets that I’ve seen. It also refreshes the odds at a quicker rate than most betting websites.

Another major plus for WBX is their commission structure. On sports with only 3 teams/players you only pay 3% e.g. football, tennis etc, it’s 4% for any event with 4 outcomes and on anything else 5%. If you are a good enough bettor/trader to consistently make profit then you also don’t need to worry about any sort of Premium Charge because with WBX there isn’t one.

WBX also has it’s own mobile version of the sites. There’s nothing to download just simply navigate to www.wbx.com and you’ll see that the interface much like the actual website is very fast to get your bets on and their are no flashy gimmicks.

A lot of the profit made in our tipster competition has been backing long shots. On exchanges such as Betfair and WBX you can get better prices on these selections because the markets are more accurate and carry less overround than with the bookies. WBX is a great option for these bets because you can make bets for a little as £1 which is better for trialing strategies than the £2 minimum with Betfair.

The reason it took me so long to check out WBX is because when I firs looked at it a few years ago there was practically no liquidity. This is the main problem exchanges face when trying to compete with Betfair. It’s pleasing now though to see liquidity on WBX and other exchanges like Betdaq come much closer to Betfair whose liquidity has declined somewhat too.

WBX Members apparently now place over 3 million bets per day, on over 5000 markets each week. They also have a good live betting product with over 500 live betting markets in a variety of sports like Soccer, Tennis, and Cricket each week.

Betfair has been known have server problems in play and various amounts of downtime so whilst WBX is probably not yet a full blown competitor to Betfair it is a good plan to use alongside Betfair. There will be times you can’t Trade out your inplay bet on betfair and need to cover your liabilities and there will be times when it makes sense to get 3% on your footy bet instead of the 5% or more with Betfair.

The difference between 5% and 3% commission can work out to be a lot of money over time and WBX has will improve the returns particularly on your football bets.

When you sign up to WBX they also give you up to £25 in free bets beginning once you have won or lost £100. Not the greatest free bet ever to be honest but it’s another plus point to an excellent service.

 






Wigan v Sheffield Wednesday


Wigan v Sheffield Wednesday

Date: December 30th, 2014
Venue: DW Stadium, Wigan
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST

Wigan ended an 8 match winless streak with a 2-0 win away at Leeds on Boxing Day and will hope to build on that against the league’s lowest scorers Sheffield Wednesday.

Wigan Form

A 2-0 win against a Leeds side struggling for form wasn’t particularly impressive and Wigan will need to do more if they want to prevent themselves from being cut adrift from safety. Prior to that one it was 4 defeats in a row for the Latics and although defeats at Norwich and Watford were expected, they’d have hoped to have done better against Rotherham and Sheffield Wednesday in their first meeting.

Sheffield Wednesday Form

A 1-0 win at home to Blackpool was expected and Wednesday’s form has been steady. Statistically the league’s least entertaining team, they’ve scored and conceded the least amount of goals in the Championship. Pretty incredible when you consider they were recently thumped 4-0 by Fulham. A low amount of goals often results in draws and in 23 matches Wednesday have had 10 of them. they need to start scoring more goals if they hope to push for the playoffs.

Team News

Wigan boss Malkay MacKay was pleased with the win on Boxing day and is set to name an unchanged side.

Wednesday captain Glenn Loovens, who missed his side’s 1-0 Boxing Day win over Blackpool, faces a late fitness test on his hamstring injury.

Key Stats

-Wigan haven’t won any of their last 8 home matches.
-Wednesday’s 4-0 defeat away at Fulham on 20th December was their first away defeat since September.

Best Bet

On the face of it a tough one to call but Sheffield Wednesday are clearly a difficult team to beat. The odds on the away win look a tad generous to me and are very tempting at a best price of 3.7 (BetVictor)

The 2-0 win against Leeds on Boxing day may be more of a false dawn and a point may be the best Wigan can hope for in this one. I recommend backing Sheffield Wednesday with a +0.5 Asian handicap at 1.8 with BetVictor.






Ipswich v Charlton


Ipswich v Charlton

Date: December 30th, 2014
Venue: Portman Road, Ipswich
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST

Ipswich will hope to extend their ten-match unbeaten run even further when they host mid-table Charlton Athletic at Portman Road. With Derby expected to get three points at home to Leeds, Ipswich know that a loss would see them slip out of the automatic promotion places and they then play hosts to Derby themselves in their next match.

Ipswich Form

You have to go back to the middle of October to find an Ipswich defeat (away at Cardiff) and the ten match unbeaten streak has included 7 wins. The key to their form has been their excellent defensive record. Their 4-2 win on Boxing Day against a Brentford side who had only previously lost once at home, demonstrates the quality and the drive that this team possesses.

Charlton Form

Charlton have had just one win in their last 10 matches and cannot convert draws to wins. They have a decent defensive record but are struggling for goals with an average of only 1 a game and an incredible 13 draws in 23 matches!

Team News

First choice Ipswich left back Tyrone Mings is available for selection once again but so impressive were Ipswich on Boxing Day and in the win against Middlebrough that manager Mick Mcarthy may look to field an unchanged side

Charlton midfielder Callum Harriott is out due to suspension. Harriott was shown a straight red card for a first-half foul during Friday’s 1-1 draw against Cardiff and he starts a three-match ban. Striker Simon Church has now recovered from his shoulder injury and is available for selection.

Key Stats

-Ipswich have kept 5 clean sheets in their 10 matches unbeaten.
-Only Middlesbrough and Sheffield Wednesday have conceded fewer goals than the tractor boys.
-Charlton have won just once away from home in their last 6 attempts

Best Bet

You are always confident backing teams that don’t concede goals and I fully expect Ipswich to continue their unbeaten run at home to Charlton. The odds are not particularly appealing at 1.62 but are fair for what is a very likely home win.

With one of the best defences in the league and Charlton really struggling for goals particularly away from home, the Ipswich clean sheet at odds of 2.1 (Boylesports) look excellent value.

 






Derby v Leeds


Derby v Leeds

Date: December 30th, 2014
Venue: Pride Park, Derby
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST

In form Derby County (4th) host a struggling Leeds United (20th) on New Years Eve, Eve and the Rams will be looking to get revenge for the defeat at Ellan Road when these two met at the end of November.

Derby know that a win would see them move into the second automatic promotion spot behind Bournemouth. While a win for Leeds is crucial to prevent the Yorkshiremen getting dragged into the relegation dog fight. Another loss on Wednesday evening and Neil Redfearn may be back with the Leeds United Academy sooner than he thought.

Derby County Form

It was an impressive 4-0 win away at Birmingham for Derby on Boxing Day and whilst their form seems a bit hit and miss. The dropped points in their last 6 have come in the form of a draw against Norwich and a loss against fellow promotion challengers Middlesbrough. The defeat to Leeds back in November was surprising but not unusual for any side in what is a long Championship Season.

Leeds Form

Leeds have had nothing to smile about since that win at home to Derby and haven’t won any of their 3 matches since. The loss at home to Wigan on Boxing day is quite concerning with Wigan not only in the relegation zone but were previously on an 8 match winless streak which included 4 straight defeats.

Team News

Derby boss McClaren has Jake Buxton available for selection again after serving a two-match ban but are unlikely to risk midfielder Craig Bryson who missed out on Boxing Day and is still struggling with a calf injury.

After a dismal display at home to Wigan Leeds midfielder Adryan is expected to return to the starting line-up after being rested on Boxing Day.

Key Stats

Derby have an impressive home record and have only lost one of their 11 matches at Pride Park. Leeds are as poor away from home and only have one win to their name in their 11 away matches. Derby average 2.27 goals at home and Leeds average just one goal in each of their 11 away matches. Only 3 sides in the Championship have conceded more goals away from home than Leeds.

Best Bet

Derby are in decent form considering their fixture list and even in the defeat away at Leeds they dominated possession (59%). All stats are pointing to a home win in this one and so the only question is, is the price good enough? Well, 1.53 is about right if you ask me and you wouldn’t want to be backing lower than that for many Championship matches.

With Derby averaging over 2 goals at home and Leeds with one of the worst defences in the league I think that over 2.5 goals is the bet in this one at a best price of 1.83 with Sky Bet.






Premier League Value Bets 28th-29th December






Premier League Value Bets for Boxing Day!






Premier League Value Bets 20th – 22nd December






Lens v Nice


Lens v Nice

Date: December 19, 2014
Venue: Stade Bollart-Delelis, Lens, France
Kick-off time: 19:30 BST

The Ligue One game between RC Lens and OGC Nice should be one of those typical midtable team against a desperate relegation struggling team trying to grind out results. Lens are in the relegation zone and going by their recent form they are still trying to string together decent performances. Nice comfortably nestled in the midtable safety, for now. Their past few results have not been that great.

Lens form: L-W-L-D-D

RC Lens has struggled this season to find any kind of consistency in their performances. Still there is no hope lost for them, as they are just a few points and good results away from the safety zone. In an unequal league like French domestic league, there is always a chance for the lesser teams to achieve something good.

RC Lens needs to get consistency in their result and that is the only way they can be able to pull themselves out in the safe zone. In their previous match against Montpellier, they were able to get a point from the draw courtesy a late equalizer by Yoann Touzghar.

Nice form: D-L-L-W-D

Nice is 11th in the league table, but if you consider the points difference between them and Lens, both are just six points off each other. Nice’s form has been decent for a midtable side and have been playing as expected.

In their previous match against St. Etienne, Nice were lucky to stop the Etienne side to close in the gap between them and third placed Lyon.

Key Players

RC Lens: Yoann Touzghar

The French striker is a menace and is a threat in the open matches like this fixture.

Nice: Valentin Eysseric

The promising young midfielder had breakthrough season last year with Nice and is looking every part the player he was last season. His goal output is not good as last year, it never has been but he can create something.

Betting Advice

Nice (3.1 at bet365) have a much better and confidence-laden team; Lens will not be a walkover, but Nice can win it. Less than +2.5 goals in the game looks certain which is priced at 1.66 with BetVictor.






Millwall v Bolton Wanderers


Millwall v Bolton Wanderers

Date: December 19, 2014
Venue: The Den, London, England
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST

The two teams in contention are in the bottom half of the Championship table; Milwall with 23 points and Bolton just behind them with 22 points. Millwall’s form has progressed over the last few matches and have climbed up the table, but still there’s lots to do. Bolton, on the other hand, is struggling to string together a decent run of form.

Millwall form: L-D-D-L-W

Millwall’s form has wavered as the season progressed and due to their inconsistency, they find themselves in the 20th spot just four places above the relegation zone. Millwall’s previous game against Brighton was a hard fought one, Millwall were lucky to win it, thanks to an early goal through Lee Gregory.

The Sami Hyypia Brighton side did try very hard to overcome that one goal disadvantage, but Millwall held on and jumped three places up in the league table. Millwall’s manager, Ian Holloway had praise for his team, but he also stressed on the importance of attacking impetus.

Bolton Wanderers form: W-D-W-D-D

Bolton Wanderers has not lost any match in the past five league games, yet their form sees them in just few places above the relegation zone. At home, Bolton has created a good record and their previous match against Ipswich Town was the first where they dropped points at home.

If they continue the momentum against fellow strugglers Millwall, it won’t be time when Bolton find themselves in the top half of the table.

Key Players

Millwall: Shaun Williams

The Irish midfielder has been a mainstay in the Lions’ defence since the start of the season and will be an important cog in Millwall midfield machine.

Bolton Wanderers: Eidur Gudjohnsen

Returning back to Bolton for a second spell, Gudjohnsen will be the man to watch. Although he has aged a lot, he can still be effective in the lower leagues where being technically superior does half the work.

Betting Advice

Millwall are rightly favourites at 2.2 to win this game but there will be moments where Bolton threaten the Millwall defence. Both teams to score looks the bet in this one with BetVictor offering 1.87 for that while over 2.5 goals are at 2.15 with William Hill so make sure you bet with them on this one.