Monthly Archives: November 2013


Premier League Preview – Week 13


Premier League Preview – Week 13

 Premier League Preview Week 13

A nice week of profit last week with good wins at decent prices on Palace and Swansea and favourites Newcastle, Chelsea and Man City all winning for us too. If Villa had managed to complete their amazing coming back and won the game against West Brom we would have been back in profit for the season but I’m sure this is just a matter of time anyway! Spreadsheet is here.

There’s some interesting selections from the value finder spreadsheet this week with most of the games looking like home wins or away favourites based on my estimates. This is quite unusual for my selections and a lot of my picks tend to be on the outsiders and away sides. It feels good that I’m largely with the odds this week but there is likely to be less value to be found in terms of the returns.

The 2 big prices for me this weekend are Southampton and Sunderland. I keep backing Sunderland with a view that they’re not that bad and they did beat Man City at home and Newcastle away remember. They just don’t seem to be getting the luck and getting a men sent off left, right and centre isn’t helping! Aston Villa were lucky to get anything out of the game against Swansea and with their home record much poorer than their away, the value is definitely with Sunderland.

Arsenal should have little bother against Cardiff and it will just be a case of how long Cardiff can hold out for. Cardiff are said to be hard to beat at home but their record is pretty average and is W2 L2 D2. Arsenal also have the best away record in the Prem so far.

I don’t expect Everton to have too much trouble in their match against Stoke. They have much more fire power in Lukaku and they will control large parts of the game. Stoke have only picked up 1 point from their last 4 away games and they are also without Robert Huth who needs knee surgery. The price is short but it’s hard to see Stoke getting anything here.

I backed Crystal Palace last week and they somehow managed to do the business at Hull even with 10 men but I think they’ll find it tougher against Norwich on Saturday. Norwich are in poor form with 4 defeats in 6 but prior to Palace’s 1-0 win at Hull last week they were without a win in 9. Again the odds aren’t spectacular but value with Norwich just.

West Ham are really struggling for goals but their performances have been pretty good and they’re playing against a Fulham side who are leaking goals all over the place (11 in their last 4) so you’d have to favour the more disciplined side here.

Newcastle have plenty of goals in their team and they’re really starting to build confidence having won all their matches so far in November. I don’t think it will be an easy win but I expect them to beat West Brom with home advantage and striker Remy bang in form.

A lot of people are tipping Tottenham to beat Man United on Sunday United are favourites and rightly so I believe. Spurs have struggled for goals in the Prem and United are improving as highlighted by their 5-0 win at Leverkusen in the Champion’s league.

Liverpool should beat Hull and I again have slight value with them but they’ll need to play a much less open game against an organized Hull side, than they did in the Mersey side Derby against Everton. It reminding me of a school lunchtime match where no one wants to defend and the ball goes from end to end but it was certainly entertaining. Hull are slipping as I predicted and have only 1 win in their last 6 matches.

I have to admit that I thought Chelsea had turned the corner but after a routine 3-0 win at West Ham they go and lose away to Basel. I know this one is at the Bridge but Southampton are clearly a capable side and Chelsea are far from the finished article. The Saints have only conceded 7 goals so far this season and with Chelsea still without a consistent goalscorer, 7s is a huge price in my opinion.

Man City are a banker for me this weekend. There’s nothing in Swansea’s recent form and results to suggest that man City will slip up at the Etihad where they are most dominant.

Good luck with all your bets!

 

Bet of the weekend: Everton to beat Stoke at 1.62 with Bet365

 

 






1Goal.in Review


1Goal.in Review

1 Goal Betting Competition Review

We all like a betting challenge and I’m sure many of you have tried an ‘all in’ type approach with the aim of getting filthy stinking rich. You start with say £10 and bet on short price and if it wins you bet the £10 + winnings on the next one and keep repeating until you have an amount you can go out on the town with or you lose!

The getting rich part of the plan never seems to materialise and the odds are stacked against you in this type of challenge. These are still a lot of fun though and it can be fun to see the power of compound interest work its magic when your £10 deposit is suddenly up to £100 with relative ease.

Well 1goal.in is a site that allows you to document this type of challenge specifically in the 1 goal or more market in football matches. These markets are perfect for this type of challenge because roughly 9 times out 10 a football match will contain 1 goal or more and it’s easy to achieve a winning streak. There are also challenges for 2 goals and 3 goals available on the site.

The site shows you which games are coming up from a huge array of countries and it’s very easy to set up an username and add a game to your list. You can also track your progress in the overall table. The game is completely free and it’s a very impressive website.

There’s also a page that shows the recent percentage of 0-0 score lines in matches for each country so you know which ones are best avoided!

The best run is 97 wins a row with average odds of 1.097. If the user has started with £10 and gone all in on each bet his pot would in theory have been well over £70,000 before the last bet was made!

Most start thinking they can do a 100 of these no sweat but it’s a lot more difficult than you’d think and over there have been over 12,000 failed attempts so far.

It goes without saying that this type of betting should only be done with small stakes and isn’t recommended as a long term betting strategy but it’s fun to see how many bullets you can dodge and if you’re not greedy you might just bank yourself a few quid in the process.






All In Tips – Review


All In Tips – Review

All In Tips Review

It’s about time we started to review some of the betting resources we link to on the internet. These won’t be in any particular order but just when we feel inspired! The one that’s taken our fancy today is AllInTips.com.

Allintips is a paid subscription based tipster service that sends football tips directly to your inbox. Don’t be put off by the name as they are certainly not advocating you go ‘all in’ on any of their tips! There are no full bank jobs for the professional minded bettor. Ever.

The site design is good and gives the feel of a professional approach. We’ve been following them for almost 3 months now and can verify the results for these months match those displayed on the website. We seem to have begun following during a bad spell and there has been no profit in the last 4 months but November does look like it will be profitable. Losses during the bad spell have been small during these months.

We have no reason to doubt the overall profitability of the service however and the overall results are solid without being extraordinary. Since the service started they have been sending the tips to Verifiedtipsters.com, Bet Rush and MyBigPartner.com

All results including the ones we’ve followed are displayed on the archive page of the website. You can see that the tips have come from over 30 European leagues and by clicking on each of them you can see the individual tipping record for them. The tips are often ones that you will have been unlikely to consider yourself.

The tips we’ve received have been a bit sparse and it’s not made obvious who they are tipping on the email. You can work the selection out from the odds themselves but we think this should be made much clearer and have fed this back to AllInTips.

Many people begrudge paying for tips especially ones which are often odds on (less than even money) but profitable services are hard to come by and any service that shows 10% ROI is pretty good.

Remember that just because the tips are often at short odds doesn’t mean you risk too much of your bank on these bets. AllInTips themselves recommend no more than 5% of your bankroll on each tip and it’s pleasing to us to see sensible advice like this.

Betting large amounts on shorter priced selections like these and coming out in the green could lead to closure of your account with some bookmakers and it is advised that you use exchanges like Betfair and Betdaq or Pinnacle Sports for placing these kind of bets.

AllInTips costs 49.00 euros per month which the site claims to work out at 5 euros per tip. Tips number shave been much smaller in recent months and the cost per tip has been more. They say they guarantee 5 picks per month but October only contained 4 tips and the records show that July also only contained 4 tips. This is also something we have also fed back to AllInTips.

We would advise to see how the service continues for a few more months before diving in and subscribing considering there has been 4 losing months in a row. A handful of tips in a month isn’t a brilliant return on your dough but these tips are profitable overall and might be worth adding to your portfolio. If you do choose to subscribe, AllInTips will give you an extra month free if you don’t make a profit during your first month.






Betfair – Review


Betfair – Review

Betfair Review

Betfair have revolutionised the way we bet and helped make it possible for serious bettors to make money from betting. Created in 2000 they have been pioneers in lay bets and in-play betting and they have been instrumental to the development of sports betting over the last decade.

Best known for their exchange which acts as a broker for peer to peer betting, Betfair are more often then not the best price available particularly on outsiders and long shots. Other bookmakers have stepped up their pricing on the shorter selections to compete but Betfair are still thought  to be used as the industry guide in many markets.

Betfair is the best site for those wanting to take the professional approach. The interface is simple and allows you to place your bets easily and quickly.

Other key features are the access to stats and form information that Betfair provides and Betfair Video which has all sorts of sports betting events many of which are not on TV.

Betfair also allows you to customise your own page by excluding any markets for sports you’re not interested in and when you win they settle your account instantly. There are few others who can compete with the speed of this service.

The more technical able bettor is also able to create their own automated betting systems by connecting to Betfair via third party software applications or writing their own code.

You don’t have to be a genius to do this, especially if it’s just some advanced trading you would like to do and applications such as Gruss, Bet Angel and A Geek’s Toy are very popular even amongst the more casual punters.

The Sportsbook area of the site is a recent addition to Betfair and whilst many of the prices available won’t appeal to the more serious minded bettor, this at least offers a better alternative to markets where there is little or no liquidity (money available) for the bet you’d like to make.

Eventually it is believed that these prices will be fed directly onto the Betafir Exchange and provide a decent starting point for odds which could then be improved upon by shrewd Betfair users who are able to work with more accurate prices.

Betfair have received some bad publicity in recent times due to down time and additional (premium) charges for winning customers but they still offer the best service for those looking to profit from betting.

No other bookmaker or exchange has had to tackle the same sorts of problems that Betfair have and they are issues that their competitors will no doubt face further down the line if they are to come close to the success of Betfair.

Anyone complaining about Betfair are almost guaranteed to have an active Betafir account and some will still be making a lot of money by using them. So take any negative comments you hear with a pinch of salt. It’s because Betfair are so good and important to the intelligent bettor that people care so much and have strong opinions.

If you are new to Betfair please don’t be put off if it looks a little different to what you’re used to. It doesn’t take long to get up to speed and we here at Betting Tools will be happy to help you with any questions you may have.

If there was only one bookmaker/exchange that we were able to recommend it would be Betfair.

When you sign up to Betfair use the Bonus Code MAX999 for the opportunity to earn a bonus up to the value of £1000.

Betfair’s bonus offer all depends on how many Betfair Points you earn over the first 30 days that you join. The more Betfair Points you earn, the higher your bonus will be up to the maximum  of £1000.

Click here to join Betfair.






Premier League Preview – Week 12


Premier League Preview – Week 12

Premier League Preview Week 12

It was a very profitable weekend in the last round of prem games after Chelsea were held to a draw against West Brom and Sunderland beat Man City. If Stoke had hung on to their 2-0 lead at Swansea our prem selections would have been back in profit overall and it shows just how quick things can change.

After a couple of weeks break due to the internationals, the prem kicks off with the Merseyside Derby at lunchtime tomorrow. It’s very much a case of defence versus attack with Everton not conceding a goal for over 5 matches and Liverpool banging in goals for fun with their own SAS (Sturridge and Suarez). Liverpool look a generous price to me in this one.

If anyone can nick a win at the Emirates against table toppers Arsenal at the minute then it’s Southampton. They are a very organised side and in great form. The price isn’t quite as high as I would have hoped but reflects the fact that they are playing so well and have brushed teams aside.

Fulham are in dreadful form with 3 straight defeats and conceding 9 goals in the process. Swansea have had a lot of draws of late but with Fulham’s defence so leaky, I’m happy to back Swansea at 2.4 in this one.

Crystal Palace were all over Everton last time out and should have taken 3 points. It was a promising performance and I still expect Hull to start to struggle. Odds of 5.0 on Palace are worth a punt in my opinion.

Newcastle, Chelsea and Man City are all odds on this weekend and deservedly so in my opinion, You’d expect at least 2 out of these 3 to win and I reckon Chelsea who welcome back Torres, look the best bet.

Everybody keeps saying that Stoke are playing good football but they are not getting the results! Sunderland pulled off a shock victory against Man City last time out and the appointment of Poyet has injected some belief into the team now. Odds of 4.0 on Sunderland look very tasty indeed.

I expect Man United to do the business at Cardiff on Sunday but I’m still not that impressed with them defensively or in midfield. This weekend they are without Carrick too and if Cardiff can beat City here they are certainly capable of doing a job on United. Odds of 5.0 look fair and have to be where the value lies.

Finally, West Ham v Aston Villa on Monday. West Ham looked awesome against Norwich in the first half of their last match but went on to lose 3-1. The Hammers are struggling for goals with only 9 in 11 so far and Villa seem to prefer playing away from home. Could go either way but value is with Villa at 3.8.

 

Bet of the weekend: Sunderland to beat Stoke at 4.3 with Betfair.

 






5 Betting Money Management Tips


5 Betting Money Management Tips

Betting Money Management

 

1)      Start with a decent betting bank

Many bettors struggle with money management and regularly blow their betting funds and they really need to learn to respect money. The truth is however, that most people will use £10, £20 or maybe £50 to bet with and they are happy to go ‘all in’ on occasion because this amount is not really significant to them in the scheme of things.

The trouble is that these £10 or £20s add up to a lot of money in the long run and if you’d set aside a larger amount to start that would be a big blow to lose, you are more likely to respect it. This doesn’t have to be a huge amount and still should be an amount that you can afford. It might be the difference between starting with £250 rather than £25 for example. Keep this money completely separate from your other funds and have a separate account for it if possible.

 

2)      Have a set (level) stake for outsiders

The true odds of long shots and anything over even money really is very difficult to price up. Not many of us have the time or the skill to know the exact price of these kinds of selections. Even if you are excellent at creating your own tissue prices the variance on these kinds of bets is so large and long losing streaks will lead you to doubt your methods.

These kind of odds are however more likely to give you value for money in the long term and if you use the same stake on these then you shouldn’t go too far wrong. Look at the tipster records of Crackpot and Pricewise and you can see just how valuable these can be.

 

3)      Use Kelly staking for odds on shots

Odds on shots are selections less than evens and are much easier to price up. This means that these prices are usually more accurate and it’s hard to get significant value long term. Using Kelly stakes to gauge the value or our confidence in a bet is a good way of maximizing returns from these types of bets. Though keep in mind that it’s easy to over-estimate your edge with odds on selections.

The great thing about these bets is that even if you do get it wrong the chances of a win are still in your favour. Finding value at the kind of prices can be very valuable indeed as long as you can get your bets taken. Here is a link to our Kelly calculator.

You can also improve your returns further by betting early and doing a little shopping around to get the best prices. So form your opinion early and keep ahead of the market.

 

4)      Respect the market

Keep in mind at all times that a selection is priced as it is for a reason, a very good reason. That being it is the informed opinion of 100s, thousands, potentially millions of experts and casual punters and on average there will be very little error.

You of course have the advantage of being selective and only betting when you feel there is error but keep in mind the market may be right and you should always check to make sure your betting balance will survive despite the stake you have chosen.

A good rule of thumb is to times the price you have got by 10 and this would give you a rough idea of the worst possible losing streak e.g. a bet made a 2.0 x 10 would be 20 losses in a row ate evens.  This is a cautious approach but it‘s a good guide and gives you a realistic view of the worst possible scenario and whether you’d survive it.

Always imagine that your bet has lost and evaluate your potential new balance before the event has happened. If it makes you feel uncomfortable and you think it may provoke a negative reaction, then lower your stake.

 

5)      Err on the side of caution

Learn to manage risk. If a bet is not winning as easily as you expected don’t wait for the struggle, trade out even for a red and wait for a better opportunity. If in doubt keep stakes low and cut loses where possible.

Some of the most profitable traders I know have many more red markets than green ones. Remember that just by staying in the game and preserving your betting balance you’re already a step ahead of the rest.

 






Zoombet – Betfair App Review


Zoombet – Betfair App Review

zoombet-betfair-lite

Betfair have had their own mobile app for a while and now have cash out functionality too but we here at Betting Tools still prefer to use a third party app called Zoombet to place our bets with Betfair. It is an Android based app but considering the popularity of the Samsung ranges now, we’re still surprised by how few people know about this gem of an app.

The makers of this software are fully certified and have an agreement in place with Betfair to connect to the site. It’s completely safe to use as well as being absolutely free to use.

The key advantage over the Betfair app is speed and its basic layout makes it much easier to navigate through the markets quickly. It’s perfect for betting on the run. It’s faster to find the markets you want to make bets on than the Betfair app and it also refreshes the odds much quicker in play.

It also has its own version of cash out and displays the odds of the relevant selection in bold green when a cash out opportunity is available. If this happens you simply click the green price and pres s ok and the app will make you equal green on all selections.

The prices displayed on Zoombet are not the cross-matched prices and I like this because you can see exactly what prices are being requested. Betfair will also still match you at the best price possible when you submit your bet via Zoombet.

Although we do recommend that you use a desktop computer with 3rd party software like Gruss to trade Zoombet is a decent alternative if you can’t use your computer and its certainly much better than using the Bettfair app.

The app obviously performs best over a wifi connection but can perform well over 3G depending on the signal strength where you are located.

The only down side to Zoombet is that you can’t deposit funds into your Betfair account using it. Perhaps this is no bad thing if it causes you to pause for a second before using the Betfair app to reload money into your account after a bad loss.






Betfair Sponsor Tipping Competition


Betfair Sponsor Tipping Competition

I am pleased to announce that Betfair will be sponsoring the our Tipster Table Tipping Competition for December and offering the prizes in the form of free bets for the top 5 tipsters!

I would like to try and encourage top quality tipsters on the site so I will also be matching these free bet prizes in the form of cash if at least 3 tip reasons are posted for all tips submitted in that month. 

So the prizes will look like this:

1st Prize -> £25 free bet with Betfair + £25 in cash (if reasons posted)
2nd Prize -> £15 free bet with Betfair + £15 in cash (if reasons posted)
3rd Prize -> £10 free bet with Betfair + £10 in cash (if reasons posted)
4th Prize -> £5 free bet with Betfair + £5 in cash (if reasons posted)
5th Prize -> £5 free bet with Betfair + £5 in cash (if reasons posted)

The competition will begin on the first Dec and end at 23:59:59 on the 31st December 2013 with prizes paid shortly after.

The free bets will be paid straight into your Betfair account and all you have to do is send me your username. The bonus cash will be paid via paypal where applicable.

If you don’t have a Betfair account you can open one by clicking here:

I would really appreciate your help in making this a success and if December runs smoothly then we should be able to continue with this format as well as look at even more prizes in the new year.

Now that prizes and cash is involved I’ve had to tighten up the rules to avoid disputes so please all take time to familiarise yourself with the updated rules below. If you are a currently a losing tipster and would like to make a fresh start using a new profile I would also be happy to allow this. If anyone has any questions or concerns about the format or the rules please don’t hesistate to post a comment or send me an email.

 

New Rules

1. Each tipster must specialise in 1 sport per profile but can request a different profile for another sport or the same sport if a different strategy is chosen. An example of this might be a profile for football underdogs and another profile for favourites.

2. Each tipster is limited to 5 picks per day.

3. Tips must be submitted at least 1 hour before scheduled start time. The system records the time the tip was posted so we can tell if this isn’t the case and the tip will be deleted.

4. Tip reasons are optional but they do make you more credible as a tipster and carry additional prize money benefits (See above).

5. Tips based on a bookmaker error in the odds will be deleted.

6. Lay bets are allowed but odds must be lower than 2.00 for these otherwise you are risking more than £10 and this isn’t a fair comparison with back bets.

7. Please check the tip info page of your submitted bet carefully. If it’s not clear who the tip is for please make sure you add a comment to the tip to clarify. You can also explain in the reasons section and it’s your responsibility to make it clear who the tip is for.

8. Minimum 10 picks required per month to be eligible for a prize.

9. Tips results are based on the settled date/time and a tip begins at 23:00 hrs on the last day of the month and finishes after 00:00 it will count towards next month.

10. Tipster must have positive record at the end of the month to be eligible for prizes and any tipster with more than -500.00 units will be removed from the competition.

11. Prizes are in the form of free bets with Betfair and you need an account to claim.

12. We reserve the right to exclude tipsters that demonstrate unethical tipster behavior and we reserve the right to alter the terms and conditions at any time.






Premier League Preview – Week 11


Premier League Preview – Week 11

Premier League Preview Week 11

No early game this Saturday and all 6 matches kick off at 3pm with the other 4 all being played on Sunday.

We only had 2 winners last week and the bad spell continues for now but keep the faith we must!

Aston Villa host Cardiff and other than their rather flukey win against City, they failed to win any other of their 6 games. Cardiff will be full of confidence after winning the first ever all Welsh Premier League match and I have an away win here.

Chelsea are at home to West Brom now managed by Mourinho’s old friend Steve Clarke. Chelsea had a surprise defeat at Newcastle last week and will be cautious in this one. Hazard returns to the squad after being left out for disciplinary reasons and Chelsea are too short for me. West Brom have proved they can beat anyone on their day and the draw at 5-1 looks like a good price.

The prem’s whipping boys Crystal Palace are at home against Everton and it looks like it will be an 8th successive defeat for the low soaring Eagles.

Liverpool are ridiculously short at 1.25 against Fulham. I struggle to see anything other than a Liverpool win especially now Coutinho is fit again and pushing for a place but the price is ridiculous in my opinion and the value on Fulham snatching a shock at 14-1.

The 2 teams that I’ve been massively underrating so far meet each other on Saturday. They are Southampton and Hull and I’ve since come to the conclusion that the Saints are the real deal but still expect Hull’s form to drop off and the saints should win this one,.

Norwich v West Ham has all the makings of a bore fest. Norwich will want to keep it tight after getting thumped at City last week and this looks set to be a low scoring affair. Morale will be low at Norwich and I make West Ham favourites here.

On to Sunday and the game of the weekend is undoubtedly Man Utd v Arsenal. United’s form is picking up, albeit slowly while Arsenal are continuing to impressive. Aaron Ramsey is in red hot form and you struggle to see how United’s midfield will compete with Arsenals and I don’t think United should be favourites.

Arsenal are far from water tight at the back though and with Van Persie and Rooney in good form this game could still go either way but the value definitely with the Gunners.

Swansea v Stoke is on at the same time unfortunately so we won’t get to watch this potential classic. Stoke have played some good football under Hughes but are struggling to get results and won none of their last 6. Swansea aren’t in great form either though and Stoke are a decent price to snatch this.

Before those two we have Tottenham at home to Newcastle which could make for an entertaining match and Sunderland against Man City. Spurs are pretty short but I think they get the job done against the Magpies.

Sunderland won their home fixture with Man City 1-0 for the third successive season on Boxing Day 2012 and although it’s tough to see that happening again on Sunday, 8-1 is a huge price and looks value to me.

You can see the estimates for this week in full here as well as the results so far: Why not have a go yourself.

 

Bet of the weekend Everton to beat Palace at 1.63 with Bet365.

 

 






Ladbrokes Exchange Launched!


Ladbrokes Exchange

Ladbrokes Exchange Launched!

Those that have been longing for a serious competitor to Betfair will no doubt be pleased to hear that Ladbrokes have finally launched their Exchange product.

You are probably aware Ladbrokes had bought the Betdaq Exchange product but it appears that this product will remain unchanged and that the Ladbrokes Exchange will be a ‘Global Betting Exchange’ which will power various front end attachments just like Betdaq.  Peter Webb over at Bet Angel explains this and highlights the fact that this is a smart move because liquidity can then be pulled together from various sources.

This differs from the Betfair Exchange model which has attempted to operate solely on their own and are thought to be looking to integrate their own recently created sportsbook area of the business to help with liquidity. Betfair’s sportsbook has been around for most of 2013 though and there’s still no sign of this integration as yet.

Here is a link to the Ladbrokes Exchange promotion page which lists some of the other benefits and key features. I am especially interested to see the instant market refresh functionality in action because slow refresh rates on Betfair’s site is one of the main reasons I myself like to use third party software like Gruss and Geek’s Toy for trading on Betfair.

With Ladbrokes having their own physical betting shops they will also able to allow customers direct access to their winnings from the Exchange product. This will be a nice advantage over Betfair where customers typically have to wait 3-5 days to get their hands on their cash.

Premium charge payers at Betfair will be pleased to hear that there is no premium charge at Ladbrokes Exchange. This of course doesn’t mean they can simply move all their funds and Betting activity to Betfair as liquidity is required and we’ve seen from Betdaq that it’s not an easy thing to attract.

A quick look at tonight’s Champion’s league matches and we can see that most of the prices are identical or almost identical to Betfair’s with liquidity looking pretty promising. There are some gaps in tomorrow’s tennis matches displayed but the amounts look pretty decent and it looks promising. I don’t think all the liquidity is that of Betdaq as some prices have more available to back on the Ladbrokes Exchange.

It’s clear that Ladbrokes are very serious about developing their Exchange product. They are already a huge brand with a massive customer base and the increased competition should hopefully benefit us all. It’ll certainly be very exciting to see just how the Ladbrokes Exchange progresses.