A nice week of profit last week with good wins at decent prices on Palace and Swansea and favourites Newcastle, Chelsea and Man City all winning for us too. If Villa had managed to complete their amazing coming back and won the game against West Brom we would have been back in profit for the season but I’m sure this is just a matter of time anyway! Spreadsheet is here.
There’s some interesting selections from the value finder spreadsheet this week with most of the games looking like home wins or away favourites based on my estimates. This is quite unusual for my selections and a lot of my picks tend to be on the outsiders and away sides. It feels good that I’m largely with the odds this week but there is likely to be less value to be found in terms of the returns.
The 2 big prices for me this weekend are Southampton and Sunderland. I keep backing Sunderland with a view that they’re not that bad and they did beat Man City at home and Newcastle away remember. They just don’t seem to be getting the luck and getting a men sent off left, right and centre isn’t helping! Aston Villa were lucky to get anything out of the game against Swansea and with their home record much poorer than their away, the value is definitely with Sunderland.
Arsenal should have little bother against Cardiff and it will just be a case of how long Cardiff can hold out for. Cardiff are said to be hard to beat at home but their record is pretty average and is W2 L2 D2. Arsenal also have the best away record in the Prem so far.
I don’t expect Everton to have too much trouble in their match against Stoke. They have much more fire power in Lukaku and they will control large parts of the game. Stoke have only picked up 1 point from their last 4 away games and they are also without Robert Huth who needs knee surgery. The price is short but it’s hard to see Stoke getting anything here.
I backed Crystal Palace last week and they somehow managed to do the business at Hull even with 10 men but I think they’ll find it tougher against Norwich on Saturday. Norwich are in poor form with 4 defeats in 6 but prior to Palace’s 1-0 win at Hull last week they were without a win in 9. Again the odds aren’t spectacular but value with Norwich just.
West Ham are really struggling for goals but their performances have been pretty good and they’re playing against a Fulham side who are leaking goals all over the place (11 in their last 4) so you’d have to favour the more disciplined side here.
Newcastle have plenty of goals in their team and they’re really starting to build confidence having won all their matches so far in November. I don’t think it will be an easy win but I expect them to beat West Brom with home advantage and striker Remy bang in form.
A lot of people are tipping Tottenham to beat Man United on Sunday United are favourites and rightly so I believe. Spurs have struggled for goals in the Prem and United are improving as highlighted by their 5-0 win at Leverkusen in the Champion’s league.
Liverpool should beat Hull and I again have slight value with them but they’ll need to play a much less open game against an organized Hull side, than they did in the Mersey side Derby against Everton. It reminding me of a school lunchtime match where no one wants to defend and the ball goes from end to end but it was certainly entertaining. Hull are slipping as I predicted and have only 1 win in their last 6 matches.
I have to admit that I thought Chelsea had turned the corner but after a routine 3-0 win at West Ham they go and lose away to Basel. I know this one is at the Bridge but Southampton are clearly a capable side and Chelsea are far from the finished article. The Saints have only conceded 7 goals so far this season and with Chelsea still without a consistent goalscorer, 7s is a huge price in my opinion.
Man City are a banker for me this weekend. There’s nothing in Swansea’s recent form and results to suggest that man City will slip up at the Etihad where they are most dominant.
Good luck with all your bets!
Bet of the weekend: Everton to beat Stoke at 1.62 with Bet365