Monthly Archives: October 2013


Premier League Preview – Week 9


Premier League Preview – Week 9

Premier League Preview Week 9

 

A small loss last week and so still slightly down overall. Again it was frustrating that we highlighted that Liverpool and Man United were too short but both teams managed a draw and this scuppered our profits. Good to see that we were right about Everton, Man City, Tottenham and Fulham but we aren’t having much luck with the outsiders recently. I’m still confident in my estimations however and perseverance is key when trying to find value.

The highlight of this weekend sees Chelsea take on Man City on Sunday, 2 teams which are many people’s favourites to win the league. City look more of a finished article particularly going forward but Chelsea are showing signs of getting it together under Mourinho. Chelsea shouldn’t be favourites for this though even with home advantage and I think City are good value and my bet of the weekend.

Pretty much all the other bets are what I would have expected or chosen myself. I’m a little concerned I’m underestimating Southampton and Hull a bit and I’ll be keeping a close eye on these two.

If you are looking for a banker this weekend then look no further than Arsenal. The home of managerless Crystal Palace is far from a fortress and I can’t see anything other than a victory for the Gunners against the Premier Leagues’ whipping boys.

 

Bet of the weekend Man City to beat Chelsea at 3.25 with Bet365






Premier League Preview – Week 8


Premier League Preview – Week 8

Premier League Preview Week 8

Just a quick one from me today as I’ve been flat out working on some more automation via excel triggered betting. It’s great fun watching the formulas do all the work for you (when you’re winning of course. If you’ve never tried it and fancy a go read my post on bots and my review of Gruss too. Feel free to give me a shout if you need any help.

Since our last round of prem games England have become world-beaters once again and Andros Townsend the new Gareth Bale. Well not quite and I’m quite impressed at how realistic people are still being despite England’s impressive performance against Poland on Tuesday. The team looked fresh for the first time in years with plenty of pace and players playing without the shackles of pressure for the first time in years. Let’s hope Woy can continue the good work whilst improving his analogies too.

We’ve been a bit unlucky of late with recognising teams that are too short only to get the draw and the underdog the wrong way round e.g. like last week when we had Spurs to draw with West Ham and Arsenal to lose To Wets Brom who did in fact score first and only dropped the 2 points due to a Wilshere shot which was deflected.

This week all nearly all the outcomes have come out as I would have predicted. The one surprise for me is the lunchtime kick off tomorrow between Newcastle and Liverpool that tells me Newcastle are value. Can’t see Newcastle winning but Liverpool is still not there yet and 4.5 is a big price for a home team that have goals in them. Colocinni is out and Taylor still likely to be injured and Liverpool welcome back Glen Johnson, Joe Allen and Aly Cissokho but are Still without Coutinho.

Mesut Ozil is ok for Arsenal after knee problem in Germany and with the return of Sangna and Cazorla to the squad Arsenal should have too much for Norwich who are without Pilkington. The sheet tells me that the draw is a big price at 5-1 however and with Norwich proving very capable against Chelsea last time out I am happy to back this..

Chelsea without Ashley Cole and Cardiff are probably the toughest of the new boys to beat and 6-1 is another big price on the draw. I certainly can’t be backing Chelsea sans goal scorer at 1.25!

Everton and Man City are bankers for me (no rhyming slang intended). I’m still waiting for Hull to be found out and it starts this Saturday for me. I don’t care that Top goal scorer Robbie Brady is back for Hull, they will not beat Everton! West Ham could be difficult to grind down and come full of confidence

The way Southampton have been playing and Man United not, it doesn’t take a genius to see that the value lies with the Saints. Many of United’s England contingent could be revitalised after a good display on Tuesday and Januzaj could make his home debut. Maybe Januzaj could actually think about choosing England ahead of Belgium now. Or maybe not. This will certainly be a competitive one I reckon.

Stoke have had 3 straight defeats but some good performances and with West Brom also in good form, I think this match is difficult to predict but I’d have to side with the baggies who have more quality.

It’s Gus Poyet’s first game in charge for Sunderland this weekend and he has Steven Fletcher available again. Swansea still without Ashley Williams and Ben Davies a doubt and a keen to impress Sunderland side look good value for me here.

On to Sunday and Aston Villa who could welcome back Benteke take on Tottenham. Villa play a very open attacking style which will suit Spurs down to the ground in my opinion.

Finally on Monday Crystal Palace who have lost 5 out of their last 6 and are set to be Prem’s whipping boys play Fulham and I think Palace are set for another defeat in this one.

 

Bet of the weekend Sunderland Draw no bet to beat Swansea at 5.0 with Bet Victor.

 

You can find the full value finder estimations and selections here:

 






X Factor Betting Preview & Advice


X Factor Betting Preview & Advice

Xfactor 2012 Winner
Image of 2012 winner James Arthur
by Christina Richards (flikr)

 

Not everyone appreciates the delights of the X Factor. In truth the dreadful singing at the audition stage is wearing a bit thin and becoming less funny each year but many of us will still find ourselves watching the finals again this winter. Some of us not by choice but merely to rack up some points with the mrs so we can watch Super Sunday without any agro. So, if we are going to watch it for whatever reason then let’s at least make it interesting by attempting to make some money out of it!

Despite what is claimed by some members of Joe public and a few seething ‘musicians’ who have worked their way up the industry ladder, you do need to be able to sing to win the X Factor. The public haven’t yet made anyone a winner who isn’t a decent singer.

There are certain acts that have got further than they should e.g. Jedward, Rylan and Wagner but they never win. With BBC1 rivals ‘The Voice’ focusing on singing quality in the last couple of years I think it’s even more important that novelty acts gets less airtime this year and in fact none of the final 12 are novelty acts really. If you were in any doubt about the quality of the previous year’s winners look below.

Previous Winners of the X Factor

2004 – Steve Brookstein
2005 – Shayne Ward
2006 – Leona Lewis
2007 – Leon Jackson
2008 – Alexandra Burke
2009 – Joe Mcelderry
2010 – Matt Cardle
2011 – Little Mix
2012 – James Arthur

To me the winners tend to fall in to 2 main categories. Those who blow everyone away at the audition stage and stay favourite all the way through and those where there was a favourite originally but not a clear one, who then lost public support and there was a late surge for the winner. This is usually because the act is not as talented or versatile as the public originally thought or it’s because of their lack of ‘likeability’.

When an act like Leona Lewis comes along with very little competition against her it was easy to pick her as the winner. Well it’s certainly a pretty weak year this year but there’s no Leona in my opinion. The current favourite is 16 year old Tamera Foster who is a very good singer but she’s not in the same league as Leona and I have doubts about her likeability. At current odds of 4 on Betfair I’d advise a lay for now with a plan to back at higher odds later on in the competition for a risk free bet.

Cher Lloyd (season 7) and Danyl Johnson (season 6) started off as pretty big favourites but suffered this problem and although I don’t think she’s quite as unlikeable as these, she comes across a bit cold and the public may struggle to connect. She’s possibly the best singer and has a great look but it’s nowhere near a formality at this stage and odds of 3.5 are too low.

The girls are actually a pretty strong category compared with some of the others in terms of talent but I again have doubts about the likeability of fellow finalist Hannah Barrett. Hannah was very popular with Nicole Sherzinger and Mary J Blige but she has problems with her voice, never stops crying and has a bit of the ‘divas’ about her. This didn’t stop Misha B getting pretty far (4th in 2008) but I’d be surprised if she got as far as her to be honest.

Talented northerner Abi Alton is the other of the girls’ finalists and she looks like she might not be versatile enough to perform well in all the different genres, much like early 2011 favourite Janet Devlin, who just didn’t have any stage presence. I actually think there is more too her than Janet though and she is likely to trade lower in my opinion. She is certainly very likeable.

The boys are a pretty weak category in comparison to previous years and would have been a lot stronger had Dom Jolly lookalike Paul Akister got through. Neither of the big lads got through in fact despite being very good singers and this has led some to label Louis Walsh a ‘fatist’. Wee Scot Nicholas McDonald has an average voice at best and was actually given a ‘no’ by Gary Barlow at the auditions. The public will want him to do well and he could go far but he won’t win in my opinion.

Sam Callahan was lucky to get through to the live stage and I think Louis put him through on image alone. I don’t see his image being enough to take him far and I can see his cheesy performances putting the public off. He seems to think he’s more appealing than he actually is.

Completing the boys’ lineup we have Luke Friend who looks like he’s been poaching deer (Anyone remember Wulf from Robin Hood Prince of Thieves?). He has an ok voice but with an air of arrogance that he needs to wash out in addition to the dirt from his hair and I don’t give him much chance.

A boy band is yet to win the X Factor which is a surprise considering the quality and popularity of JLS and One Direction, neither of whom won. The groups however, along with the girls look like the strongest 2 categories in terms of talent and a few quid on a group at juicy odds could be a good bet.

You have the typical boy band in Kingsland Road who are a bit of a poor man’s One Direction and are the weakest of the 3 vocally. Rough Copy who now have their 3rd member Kazeem back are extremely good vocalists as are Miss Dynamix (Sounds like a Miss Dynamite and Little Mix Collaboration). They have a nice edgy sound a bit like TLC. On singing credentials alone you’d have to fancy at least one of Rough Copy and Miss Dynamix to trade lower than their current prices of 15.

The one category that the winner is extremely unlikely to come from this year is the overs (Over 28’s). The singers are very average indeed and include the instanstly forgettable Lorna Simpson who is favourite to leave first. The image of the 3 overs also leaves a lot to be desired. Sam Bailey is a very good singer but it’s hard to separate the image from the voice and she wasn’t as good as she has been at judges houses. She’s in the same ilk as Tesco’s Mary from 3 seasons ago and will struggle to go far I reckon.

Devonshire lass Shelley Smith will divide opinion in terms of likeability and those that find her annoying will find her really annoying and she’s probably priced right at odds of over 100-1.

Here is a full list of the current betting odds with my comments alongside:

Click on name for direct link to audition video or click the odds for link to bookie with the best odds.

Act Best Odds Advice
Tamera Foster  3.8 Definite contender but 3.8 is too short and will trade higher. LAY TO BACK
Nicholas McDonald  5.5 Tough one to judge because the talent isn’t there but popularity could be. NO BET
Hannah Barrett  6.5 Unlikeable. LAY, LAY, LAY!
Abi Alton  10 Well worth a few quid at 9.0’s and sure to trade lower. BACK TO LAY
Sam Bailey  12 Good voice but image will put people off.  LAY
Rough Copy  13 Excellent vocals and 15’s looks tempting. BACK
Miss Dynamix  17 Seem likeable at this stage and have a nice edgy sound. BACK TO LAY
Kingsland Road  23 A poor man’s one direction and very unlikely winners. NO BET
Sam Callahan  27 Cheesy, annoying, not good enough and shouldn’t be in the final. NO BET
Luke Friend  34 Not likeable enough even if he starts washing his hair. NO BET
Lorna Simpson  48 Good voice but instantly forgettable. Out early. OUT FIRST
Shelley Smith  105 Personality could be annoying and couple of rounds at best. NO BET

Eliminations can be fun to bet on too and it’s often worth laying the favourite to go when they are an act who might be poorer but whom the public seem to like. As I said earlier there’s not really any novelty acts this year but there’s still sure to be a few surprises. Public popularity is a tough one to gauge especially for the older amongst us who may be a bit out of touch with the youth of today but there are plenty of popularity polls online. It’s always best to check a few different sources however as some do try and manipulate them.

Recommended value bets:

Winner:
Abi Alton at 10.0 with SkyBet
Rough Copy at 13.0 with Stan James
Miss Dynamix at 17 with Betfred

Winning Category:
Groups at 6.5 with 188 Bet

First Out:
Lorna Simpson – Best odds of 4.0 with Ladbrokes

 






Premier League Preview – Week 7


Premier League Preview – Week 7

premier-league-preview-week-7 

A profit of 37 units on the prem last week using the value finder spreadsheet to produce my own odds. That made the month of September a profitable one of 34.40 units overall and an ROI of 11.47%. the updated Spreadsheet and info about it can be found on this page.The West Brom result did much to influence that but that’s what finding value is about and if it hadn’t been that match we cashed in on it will be another. There’s a long way to go of course but it’s a decent start.

I’ve inputted my selections for this weekend and it’s thrown up some interesting selections indeed, including 4 draws!

It all starts at Mid-day at Eastlands with Man City taking on Everton. Joe Hart has come under scrutiny yet again and I read a comment on twitter in the week that said “Joe Hart is the most over-rated palyers around. Which begs the question who still rates him THAT highly.” A very good question indeed. Man City have dominated premier league matches in terms of possession and should come out on top in this one but I have the value with the draw at a bets price of 4.2. Everton were struggling for goals but Lukaku has changed all that and shows what a difference a goal scorer can make to a team. That said, I expect City to keep him quiet tomorrow (Joe Hart blunder exempt).

I was very surprised at Cardiff’s win at Fulham last week and as they tend to be better at home they have a good chance against the unpredictable Newcastle. The Magpies started slowly against Everton last Monday but looked a different team when Cabaye came on and odds of over 2-1 I think they’re a decent price.

Fulham v Stoke is a tough match to call much like Stoke’s match with Norwich last week, I see almost anything possible and have to go with the result that provides the best odds which is the Potters to win. Hughes will certainly be keen to get his team fired up again after last week’s dismal display.

Aston Villa were lucky against Man City last week but they’re pretty impressive away from home and Hull haven’t been without their luck too. I seem to be underrating Hull at the minute and the spread sheet tells me Villa are the bet based on my estimates.  Aston Villa are without Benteke again but they were last week and could also welcome back Agbonlahor.

Liverpool v Palace looks a nailed on home win but I can’t make Liverpool more than 80% likely to win this match (or any for that matter!) so the draw is the best value selection for me here at a massive 7.5. Sturridge and Suarez are likely to cause havoc in the Palace defence and ass the value here is extremely small I wouldn’t blame you for leaving this one out.

Sunderland are still without a permanent manager but caretaker manager Kevin Ball got a spirited performance from his players last week. Man Utd look for from convincing and have had a very poor start to the season and are without Ferdinand for this one. Sunderland winning this one wouldn’t be a huge surprise to me and odds of 5-1 look worth a nibble.

On to Sunday where Norwich take on Chelsea at Carrow Road. Norwich have won only once at home so far this season and they were made to look good in last week’s bore fest with Stoke. Chelsea are without Torres and possibly Hazard but a Chelsea win looks a near certainty in this one.

Southampton have had a very good start but odds of nearly 3-1 on an excellent Swansea side is too big for me. Swansea are having to deal with games coming thick and fast but they’re just about coping so far.

West Ham are yet to get their campaign going and had a disappointing loss against Hull last week. They’re still without Andy Carroll and face a tough task against an in form Spurs. Tottenham have great depth in their squad this season and despite me wanting to back them in this one, the spread sheet tells me that the draw at 4.8 is a big price.

Finally, if Arsenal do the business against West Brom on Sunday then they will have won a record breaking 9 away matches in a row. Their good form has continued despite being without Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Lukas Podolski and a baggies team full of confidence could spring another surprise and the price of 4-1 of them doing so looks fair.

Bet of the weekend Swansea +0.5 to beat Southampton in the Asian Handicap market with Bet365.






Interview with Dan from Tennis Ratings – Part 2


Interview with Dan from Tennis Ratings – Part 2

Tennis Ratings Interview

 

This year’s US Open didn’t seem great for trading swings especially on the women’s side. Do you think grand slams are less easy to trade than other tournaments?

I don’t think they’re more difficult to trade than other tournaments because the higher the profile tournament the more ‘mug money’ there will probably be but I do prefer swing trading 3 set matches over 5 set matches so the men’s 5 set format in Grand Slams doesn’t suit me as much. However, saying that, there are some prevalent strategies that can be applied to 5 set matches that come from 3 set matches. For example, if a player struggles for fitness in the latter stages of 3 set matches (current examples would be Klizan, Sock and Rosol) then they’re hardly going to thrive in the 4th and 5th sets of Grand Slam matches. Also there’s the 5 set winner strategy that I’ve written about in the men’s tournament that I apply in the markets too, so I suppose it’s all compensated.

The other problem with Slams is that in the early stages there’s so many matches in a short space of time that trader’s money is very stretched and liquidity often isn’t great. It’s pretty frustrating when you identify a nice edge on a match and then you can’t get trades matched.

 

What are your biggest wins and biggest losses?

I don’t want to talk about financial amounts, but Gilles Simon vs Roberto Bautista-Agut this year in Monte Carlo was my best result of the year. 13 breaks in 21 games with the underdog winning was pretty much as good as it gets. My only regret was that it didn’t go to a 3rd set!

 

How are your stats collected for your tennis ratings services – how can subscribers be sure they’re accurate?

I’m pretty open with my subscribers who ask me how I find the data – that’s a very common request. I will tell them how I calculate pretty much anything except my projected hold formula. But even then I will tell them what areas I look at for it so they can try and perform their own analysis/research should they wish.

A fair few of the stats I use in the services are in the public domain as well so if they weren’t accurate people would quickly realise, and I’d look an idiot! So that’s pretty good motivation to keep things accurate – not to mention the fact that I use the data for myself so I have to be pretty meticulous…

 

Do you do any trading on Betdaq or any other exchanges?

I don’t, but I would if liquidity was better. Betfair needs some healthy competition but the problem is it’s a catch-22 situation. They won’t get it until they lose customers to Betdaq, and the customers won’t move until the liquidity is better.

 

What is your take on trading without pictures?

I do it but I prefer streamed matches for obvious reasons. The problem is scoring services such as flashscores (which I find the best) is still about 5-10 seconds behind the live pictures, which are 3-5 seconds behind the live action! So you have a much smaller window of time to get trades matched before the next point starts. They’re probably much better for long term trades e.g. laying the player a break up or laying the player that’s won the first set as opposed to short term trades such as laying the server. Mid game trades such as backing players with a high projected hold when losing on serve are much more difficult without live streams.

 

Have you ever looked at automating your trading?

I haven’t, because I’m nowhere near good enough with computers or programming to even contemplate how to go about doing so.

 

If you could give 3 tips for currently losing traders what would they be?

1. Stake small – if you can’t win staking small, you won’t win staking big. And using small stakes will enable you to try out methods without much pressure.

2. Do a lot of research – when you are backing a player, someone else is laying that player. If you don’t do that research then the trader laying the player will almost certainly be more knowledgeable than you at that point, and will probably have a much better reason for laying that player than you have for backing them.

3. Don’t tilt and keep disciplined – if you’re not trading well, or don’t have an edge in the upcoming matches, just switch your PC off. Only trade on events that your research shows you have an edge in – it can be pretty boring and frustrating waiting for opportunities but it’s key to do so. Don’t trade on sports you have no real knowledge or edge on through boredom or frustration or chasing losses. If I had to make a 4th point here, it would be that – sticking to 1-3 sports maximum is pretty vital. I don’t think you can profitably trade 5+ sports long-term doing your own research. I would imagine anyone doing this probably gets information from others, or doesn’t sleep!

 

How do you think the tennis trading experience could be improved in future?

Giving Betfair more competition, although I don’t necessarily think this will happen. Pinnacle are apparently looking to improve their in-play offerings, which I’m definitely looking forward to.

 

What would you do if trading was no more and banned like it has been in other countries?

That’s a tough question to answer. Personally I don’t think that will happen – the UK is a pretty liberal country and from what I understand the Government generates income from the gambling companies. We see with things like smoking that the Government aren’t keen to outlaw something that is perceived as bad but generates them significant income so it’s not something I’m overly concerned about.

 

Are there any people you follow on Twitter for info, tips or tennis related banter that you can recommend?

There are plenty and I’m reluctant to answer this question because I’m going to miss so many out who are great! I’ll just give a few that I can think of from the top of my head. @hotdog6969 is pretty much a tennis encyclopedia, a super knowledgeable guy. @seancalvert1 shows a good profit from his tips and I enjoy reading his previews. @puntdotcom is probably the trader that most people aspire to be and @sportdw has a very diverse knowledge of all sports including a focus on the lower tennis tours, and also has a good website with some very interesting articles on.

 

Many thanks to Dan. There is a lot of useful information here for aspiring tennis traders. I think it’s great that we finally have someone who provides guides and strategies that are backed up by statistical data as opposed of the pre-historic back all favourites a set down or in a certain odds range type rubbish that have been floating around the internet for years.

Follow Dan on twitter @tennisratings and subscribe to his services via his website www.tennisratings.co.uk. Quote ‘Betting Tools’ and you will be eligible for the special offer.

 






Interview with Dan from Tennis Ratings – Part 1


Interview with Dan from Tennis Ratings – Part 1

Tennis Ratings Interview

Dan from TennisRatings.co.uk very kindly took a little time out from his hectic Tennis Trading schedule to give us some insight into his trading, his products and into the man himself. We had previously done a review of the excellent services offered by Tennis Ratings and wanted more! You can read this review here:  If you are struggling to find an edge trading the tennis markets then his products will certainly help you.

Here is part 1 of the interview:

 

Can you give us some background to Dan, the man from Tennis Ratings e.g. What jobs have you had and have they helped your tennis trading?

I’ve never actually had a ‘proper’ full-time job in my entire life! I graduated with a degree in Accounting & Finance when I was 21 – I’m now 34 and I’ve never needed a full-time job since then. I’ve gambled in a number of areas successfully since then, including fruit machines and online poker – the discipline that I learnt in those areas was probably the best thing I’ve taken from a related activity. Obviously my maths background (A level and related degree) have been useful but I don’t think they were absolutely necessary.

 

How did you get into tennis trading?

My original sports gambling background was in football, probably about 10 years ago or so. I only used high street bookmakers and it was pretty basic stuff, worked out that Scottish football had less home/away bias, managed to do well on Arsenal in the ‘invincibles’ season was also something I remember. Amazingly this worked pretty well. Of course I realised this was not the best strategy and used my maths background to start modeling football, with mixed success. After a while I figured out the 1/X/2 market was pretty efficient and decided to try another sport. I found the Tennis Insight website about 4-5 years ago and it all started from there. Originally I just did pre-match betting and did pretty well on that from the word go – but got restricted very quickly and decided that trading on Betfair was a better option for me.

 

How would you describe your trading style?

It’s very risk-averse. Some people would probably say too risk-averse, but it keeps me saner that way. An example would be one of my main strategies – opposing players serve with a low projected hold. Should the receiver get to 0-30 or 15-40 then I will begin to remove liability and ‘freeroll’ from there. Generally I’m in and out of trades pretty quickly – I don’t hold a huge amount of long-term positions unless I’m incredibly strong one way or another.

 

How do you cope with losses/losing streaks?

Sadly it’s part and parcel of the game. I’d say that my previous gambling experience helped me a lot – when I played online poker I used to 8 table 6max games and would get through 3000+ hands per day. That level of play made the long-run come quicker and reduced daily variance as much as possible. In the tennis markets it depends on a lot of things – things small such as non-tennis related things affect the way I deal with situations. Generally the way I am is that if I feel I can maintain a good level of trading in future games then I will stick with it, and if not then I’ll just turn the laptop off and go and feed the ducks down the road or something. One major benefit of a statistical style of tennis trading is that it’s much harder to deviate from a solid plan so this doesn’t happen very often. Finally I’ve got too much respect for money than to tilt.  Plus if I did my wife would kill me…

 

How long did it take you to make a profit tennis trading?

When I made the move from pre-match betting to trading I didn’t stake a lot because I knew I had a lot of learning to do. But I already had a fair bit of experience of how the markets worked, and a decent knowledge of the players so it was pretty much immediately.

 

What helped you most when learning to be profitable?

I would say that my work ethic and discipline was the most important thing.  Thankfully I already had those but without those I’d say it was pretty much impossible to be profitable in any gambling form.

 

Are there any betting/trading tools and resources that you use regularly?

Yes, there are a few that I use on a regular basis. Tennis Insight and TennisBetSite are invaluable for me. I also much prefer oddsportal to oddschecker as it has more available odds and past pricing data. The ATP website is also useful and much better than the WTA one.

 

What are the weaknesses in your trading if any?

You could definitely argue that my risk averseness can at times reduce my positive expectation on individual trades. However it keeps me saner and possibly increases my long term positive expectation.  No-one’s perfect, I always say that every day is a learning day and there’s very few days that I don’t at least glean something useful that may help me in the future.

 

How do you make your trading fit into your everyday routine and lifestyle? Any tips?

That’s probably another weakness of mine, but I saw this question and left it out of the previous answer!  To be honest I don’t trade as much as I should because of this reason. I’ve got a wife and a step-daughter so I appreciate that I can’t be at the laptop for all day, day in, day out.

I don’t think it’s a bad thing to have a good work/life balance though, and if it means that I have to miss out on late night/overnight matches, and trading some weekends, then there’s plenty of other matches that I can trade still where there’s going to be decent edges so it’s not a disaster.

 

Do you have any favourite tournaments and favourite players you like to trade on?

Favourite tournaments generally will be women’s matches on slow clay courts. I actually like trading 250s/International events more than Grand Slams – give me a ‘mug v mug’ match rather than a sub 1.10 shot playing any day of the week. As long as liquidity is good in these there can be some superb trading opportunities. Tournaments I don’t like – St.Petersburg for reasons many will probably be aware of, and I’ve traditionally not done well there. Munich and Rome also I generally don’t do fantastically in.

Favourite players are generally the weak servers. Annika Beck and Shahar Peer are a couple in this respect – also some players are very easy to read, e.g. Olga Govortsova who tends to play her best tennis when losing but can’t hold on to a lead. In the men’s Gilles Simon is a player that I’ve done very well from –I can’t remember losing on many of his matches.

 

Part two will be published tomorrow…

 






Sport is made for betting – blog review


Sport is made for betting – blog review

Sport is made for betting blog

Sport is made for betting is one of the longest running sports betting blogs on the internet. It’s also one of the most popular and its author, Australian Scott Ferguson is an expert on his chosen subject. Scott was the head of Betfair Education only a few years ago and there’s little about sports betting that he doesn’t know. He has his finger firmly on the sports and betting industry pulse and his blog is the number one source for betting related news. He’s occasionally drafted in for an appearance on Sky Sports when there’s match fixing or corruption issues to be discussed.

Online since 2008 Sport is made for betting has lots of informative betting related content in its archives and these days also covers major race meetings and sporting events via guest blogger previews. If you are a keen racing blogger in particular get in touch with him. You’ll have exposure to hundreds, potentially thousands of readers and it’s a great place to showcase your writing talents.

Scott’s specialist sports are Racing, Tennis and Cricket but he appreciates the fact that gaining an edge is much easier on less popular markets and champions a diverse range of sports such as biathlon, which is basically Skiing and shooting combined. He notes that Biathlon is particularly good for trading because “So much depends on the shooting, a biathlete can go from 1.5 favourite to 400 outsider with a couple of missed shots.”

Popular posts from Sport is made for betting  include info about Scott’s favourite, ‘lay the field’ strategy and one which also gives some excellent advice about how to profit from the next manager markets found in the Betfair specials section. These markets are often subject to rumour and manipulation and Scott gives some excellent advice for taking advantage of this. It’s an enjoyable market to trade if you don’t mind having your money tied up for a little while. Read the post about this here: http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/p/next-manager-markets.html

Scott’s also runs a WTA tennis competition where you select your dream team by picking a player from each of the 10 groups of players with the aim of finding the highest ranking player within that group. The competition starts at the beginning of each tennis season and you can find the website for this here: http://www.wtatenniscomp.com

You can follow Scott under the @Borisranting twitter handle (Apparently useful tennis player and had red locks like Boris Becker back in the day). He loves his beer and can recommend some crackers. Scott engages with all sorts of people on twitter from the shrewd bettors/traders and renowned journalist to newb punters looking for help. So make sure you’re following him and get reading his superb blog Sport is made for betting if you don’t already.