Monthly Archives: January 2013

Lay Low, Back High!

Lay Low, Back High!

When ever people ask for trading advice, the standard response is back high, lay low. Whilst this is meant to be funny as it’s obvious, my strategy in tennis trading is almost as simple. I however prefer to lay low and back high (in that order) as most of the money is on the favourite and there are less gaps in prices.

In tennis trading it makes much more sense to lay low as your entry point. This is mainly because you can make more money from the same kind of fluctuations and stake than you could if you backed and layed at the same prices. You can also risk much less to make the same profit.

In the Djokovic vs Warinka match the other day there were lots of opportunities and the Sultan made a good post about people declaring it as a traders dream here Obviously people would have had a variety of different approaches and there were a fair amount of opportunities but many would have tried to get Djokovic at a better price. The match itself was very close and I wanted to illustrate the difference between laying Djokovic when you realised it was a close match and backing him because you know he always prevails and his price is much better from a trading perspective.

Let’s say you layed Djokovic at 1.1 for £50 liability and his price is
now 1.3… you can now green up for £77. Conversely, if you’d risked £50
backing him at 1.3 and the price is now 1.1 you can go all green for only £9! That is some difference!!
You may say that 1.3
is more likely to go to 1.1 especially with the market so bias on Djokovic though and this is generally true but in tennis (Esp. WTA) you see so
many matches go short far too early or see people struggle to close out matches
that there are plenty of opportunities for these more lucrative strategies.
There may well be the occasional good 1.3 to 1.1 back to lay bet but is the smaller
profit worth it? Remember the Pareto 80-20 and all that. Your stake will most
likely be higher on the short odds too and the stress of hoping that someone
can finish a match of much greater. The odds are rarely a complete train to 1.01 especially if you chose the righht kind of match so there are plenty of redding out opportunities too.
Watching a choke is much more fun and
exciting too in my opinion! Azarenka nearly managed it last night and had to take a tactical MTO to win! Like anything in betting/trading, selectively choosing the markets/moments to execute your strategy is the skill that’s going to make all the difference.
I’ve got a couple more tipsters on my new site I don’t want to flood the site with too many to start with but I am after a few more still, so if you think you’re any good click here and send me your details and I’ll get you added.


Value in Short Prices

Value in Short Prices

I know value has been talked about to death both on this blog and elsewhere and any experience bettor will know all about it but following on from my post about how much better trading can be in terms of paying less commission as opposed to making value bets and winning much more infrequently, I thought I’d mention something else which I have found recently.
I have demonstrated on many occasions that there is better value to be found on longer priced selections i.e. those that are not massive favourites but either slight underdogs or the draw odds ect. This is because they are harder to price up and less assured money is risked on these so the bookmaker doesn’t have to reduce the margin too much either. The trouble with these selections though is that you never quite now how big your longest losing streak will be or how many parts to split your bank into to be comfortable. If you are to lose half your bank as is easily possible betting at above evens then are you confident enough to continue with your bets/strategy. You also invest a lot of mental energy in following your bets and whilst you may be still well up after 50 straight winners and then followed by 40 straight losers, those 40 straight losers are going to hit you hard when you look at what might have been and where the bank was – this is only natural.
It’s for this reason that I have recently started favouring much shorter priced selections in my bets to compliment my trading. You have to be careful as it’s harder to find an edge but these can still be very valuable. Not because you have a greater edge in these bets, as on average this is statistically not likely but it’s because mathematically you know what to expect with these, there is less uncertainty and there will be very few losing streaks and along with trading it’s easier to turn a small bank into a large one. Sometimes value is not just about the percentage of the edge but the variance with that bet too. People should never be afraid of backing short prices that they think offer value, as backing these can make all the difference to your bottom line. Just don’t use a ridiculous percentage of your bank as this is where most go wrong.
The tennis trading and bets have been very good so far. The staying awake an extra couple of hours each night is taking its toll on me a bit though. Roll on tennis in normal hours!
I’ve finished the little spare time project that I hinted at a couple of weeks back and I will now be posting my drawfinder tips and some others on my new site Tipster Table from now on.  I’ve got a few others involved already and the Legendary Cassini from GreenAllOver has also expressed an interest!

Why Trading is so good

Why Trading is so good

It’s been a welcome return to Tennis Trading for me this week. I haven’t traded too many matches since most of them are at ridiculous o’clock but I’ve made some really good profit and I’m actually enjoying it again.
I’ve always maintained that I find trading much easier to profit long term than betting but it still takes a fair bit of skill and just dipping in for a few ticks here and there is not the way to do it. Done properly by sensible staking and reducing risk where necessary/possible trading can be very lucrative.
In case you weren’t aware trading is preferable to betting for a number of reasons but mainly because you end up paying a lot less commission. Take this example I found floating about the Internet in several places.

 Betfair’s commission structure also greatly favours price traders making small, consistent profits over those that gamble on the result of the race. This is because their commission is charged on your net winnings for each market.

As a gambler you expect to have many losses but also some big wins to pay for those losses and therein lies the problem. As you are evening out your results over several different markets this means that when you do hit the big win the previous losses that you had are not taken into account and you must pay commission on the whole amount.

You don’t get to pay the commission on your net profit because your profits and losses were spread over different Betfair markets. As a result you end up paying a much higher proportion of your winnings back in commission than a trader who made the same net amount does.

For example, say you’re gambling on each race, if you win GBP 200 on a race, then lose GBP 180 on the next race and then win GBP 200 on the next race and then lose GBP 180 on the next race you have made GBP 40 profit overall from 4 races. 5% commission charged on your 2 winning races is GBP 20 so you end up with GBP 20 profit.

Even though commission is only 5% you have actually paid out 50% of your winnings in commission.

Now, if you had been trading those same 4 races and made an average of 10 pounds on each race, not only would you have made the same profit from a smaller bank without having to stomach the 2 big losses but you would pay much less in commission also.

5% of each GBP 10 profit is 50 pence so you would end up with GBP 38 out of your original GBP 40 profit. 5% commission when you don’t have huge swings to take into account actually means 5%.

You also reduce variance by trading and this means you don’t need as big of a bank as you don’t need to cope with horrendous losing streaks like you do with betting.
It’s a good job the trading is going well because the Drawfinder strategy is still just short of breaking even after just the one draw found last round. Here are this week’s selections. This will be the last week I post the selections on this blog but you will be able to find them and some of my other tips on another site (more on this later). The plan is to talk more about stuff like the above than just provide selections which is in truth a bit boring!
Best Odds
West Brom
West Ham