Monthly Archives: December 2012


New Year Plans


New Year Plans

I hope you all followed my advice backing Phil Taylor in the last couple of rounds. Those were generous odds in my opinion and I went bigger than usual, although I have to admit to being slightly concerned at 5-4 and Taylor shaking! Despite it ending up close, I still believe Taylor wins that match 8 times out of 10 overall and if it got close Barney may well have started doubting himself again. I’m going to leave the final well alone and sit back and enjoy the match. Hopefully Taylor will be over his cold that we’ve heard so much about!
The jury is out on the new Drawfinder strategy. After 3 good weeks and 3 bad ones we’re pretty much back where we started and although it seems like a waste of time I’m still hopeful. This is because nearly all of the games I’ve picked have had 1 goal in them and the 5 fixtures I select are almost always the correct ones. I think I’ve missed 2 draws in total and one of those was 3-3 so I’m happy to miss that in a way. I’ve a feeling that the results aren’t great just because the draw count is a lot lower than earlier on in the season when it was over-performing and so I’m going to give this strategy another couple of months before I decide whether it’s worth continuing.
In the new year I want to get back to making some interesting blog posts again as opposed to just posting strategy selections as I enjoy this more and I’d also like to write about how the rest of my betting is going, following successful tipsters as I often do and hopefully getting back into the lucrative tennis trading. I’ve got my staking down to a fine art now and will also be sharing my findings on this.
I’ve a feeling 2013 is going to be a lucky one for me. The number 13 may be unlucky for some but this statement itself could imply that it is lucky for most and is in fact considered a lucky number in Italy J
Happy new year!
*** UPDATE – New years day selections
Date
Home
Away
Best Odds
01-Jan-12
West Brom
Fulham
3.63
01-Jan-12
Man City
Stoke
5.8
01-Jan-12
Swansea
Aston Villa
4.16
01-Jan-12
West Ham
Norwich
3.5
02-Jan-12
Liverpool
Sunderland
5.05





Premier League Christmas


Premier League Christmas

Christmas hasn’t been too kind for the drawfinder strategy as yet. The last two rounds of games have only seen 1 draw from 5 and so a slight loss but we are still 22% up overall. It’s too early to draw conclusions (pun not intended) as no draws this weekend could see us back to square 1 but 2 o even 3 would see us in very good profit. On the positive side, there hasn’t yet been a week where I haven’t found a draw and I believe I’ve only missed out on 2.

I am not a massive darts fan but love watching it over Christmas. The atmosphere is awesome and makes it a good TV spectacle, along with the excellent commentary. I couldn’t quite believe that Taylor was 1.29 to beat Hamilton last night despite leading the head to head 28-1! I had a larger bet than usual so was pretty chuffed to see him destroy Hamilton 5-0. I’ve just checke dand he’s 1.6 to beat Barneveld in the semis and I think this is also good value. Obviously Barney is in greta form but he tends to lose his bottle and doubt himself against Taylor. It won’t take many missed doubles for the demons to get to Barney again in my opinion. This may be the time he plays the dart board and not Phil Taylor but at 1.6 I know where my money is.

Here are today’s draw selections. I’ve updated the sheet too and won’t be listing fixtures that aren’t bets because it was looking a bit cluttered. Good luck all!

Date
Home
Away
Best Odds
29-Dec-12
Sunderland
Tottenham
3.54
29-Dec-12
Aston Villa
Wigan
3.31
29-Dec-12
Fulham
Swansea
3.61
29-Dec-12
Reading
West Ham
3.51
30-Dec-12
Everton
Chelsea
3.4

http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/Drawfinder.xlsx






Boxing day draws!






Going as planned!


Going as planned!

These draws really are going as planned and in all 3 weeks since the start of this strategy I’ve managed to find 2 draws from 5 and am showing a very nice profit and an ROI of !

Let’s hope it continues over the festive period. I’m a little concerned as goals do seem to fly in at this time of year but even 1 draw from 5 the odd weekend, wouldn’t be a disaster and if it on a good price of 5 or more like the Chelsea odds this weekend then you can still make a small profit or at least get close to breaking even.

This weeks selections:

Date
Home
Away
Draw?
Best Odds
22-Dec-12
Wigan
Arsenal
No
4.14
22-Dec-12
Man City
Reading
No
9.64
22-Dec-12
Newcastle
QPR
No
3.52
22-Dec-12
Southampton
Sunderland
Yes
3.55
22-Dec-12
Tottenham
Stoke
Yes
3.95
22-Dec-12
West Brom
Norwich
Yes
3.6
22-Dec-12
West Ham
Everton
Yes
3.4
22-Dec-12
Liverpool
Fulham
No
4.34
23-Dec-12
Chelsea
Aston Villa
Yes
5.52
23-Dec-12
Swansea
Man Utd
No
4.08

Results so far:
http://www.betfairbanter.com/Drawfinder.xlsx






Drawfinder


Drawfinder

Just 4 selections this week as there are only nine games. Almost included Spurs Swansea too but 4 from 9 is enough I feel. Hopefully I don’t regret that decision :)

Date
Home
Away
Draw?
Best Odds
15-Dec-12
Newcastle
Man City
No
4.18
15-Dec-12
Liverpool
Aston Villa
Yes
5.42
15-Dec-12
Man Utd
Sunderland
No
7.19
15-Dec-12
Norwich
Wigan
No
3.58
15-Dec-12
QPR
Fulham
Yes
3.4
15-Dec-12
Stoke
Everton
Yes
3.3
16-Dec-12
Tottenham
Swansea
No
4.1
16-Dec-12
West Ham
West Brom
Yes
3.68
17-Dec-12
Reading
Arsenal
No
4.12





Drawfinder Update


Drawfinder Update

Managed to find another 2 draws this week and so managed a profit again. This week’s were more obvious with Aston Villa and Stoke and Wigan v QPR both ending in draws. The latter a more fortuitous draw at 2-2 but we could so easily have landed another one or two had it not been for a late own goal for Liverpool and Man Uniteds late late winner at City.

Everyone seems to blame Samir Nasri for United’s winner and whilst I don’t think he did a great job in the wall, the foward movement of the player next to him (forget who now) made it look like he was hiding behind him when this wasn’t really the case.

One bonus game tonight in Fulham v Spurs but I don’t see this as a potential draws so no bet on this one.

http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/Drawfinder.xlsx






Drawfinder – A profit for week one!


Drawfinder – A profit for week one!

A good start for my new Drawfinder strategy but obviously not getting carried away as one week means very little and could well be a fluke! Stu pointed out via a comment on GreenAllOver that there has already been 32.9% draws this season and that I may have missed the boat with these.
It is true that the numbers of draws is higher than the norm by about 5% and I do expect this average to decrease overall but there wqill still be at least 2 a week on average and this is what I’m aiming for. As Cassini also pointed out it depends what price you get for the draws too and last week’s 4.48 on Man City v Everton will definitely help.
More importantly, I’m enjoying this quicker/easier to carry out strategy and have renewed enthusiasm for premier league betting after what was a very poor spell for me.
Anyway here are my 5 selections (Where draw = ‘Yes’) for this week:
Date
Home
Away
Draw?
Best Odds
08-Dec-12
Arsenal
West Brom
No
4.46
08-Dec-12
Aston Villa
Stoke
Yes
3.3
08-Dec-12
Southampton
Reading
No
3.72
08-Dec-12
Sunderland
Chelsea
Yes
3.75
08-Dec-12
Swansea
Norwich
No
3.79
08-Dec-12
Wigan
QPR
Yes
3.49
09-Dec-12
Everton
Tottenham
No
3.65
09-Dec-12
Man City
Man Utd
Yes
3.56
09-Dec-12
West Ham
Liverpool
Yes
3.32
10-Dec-12
Fulham
Newcastle
No
3.76