Monthly Archives: November 2012


Change of strategy – Drawfinder


Change of strategy – Drawfinder

So another losing week for me and results so far this season have been nothing short of disastrous and if I’m honest I’ve found it difficult time –wise to make such accurate percentage predictions.  Add this to the fact that I’m sick of losing out to draws especially after championing them when I proved how they were the best value selection overall and I think it’s time for a change of strategy.
I’ve decided it’s time I started cashing in on these draws and I’m aiming to find them each week in the premier league. I proved in my post a few weeks back that if you bet on the draw for every PL game by obtaining the best draw odds available from the top bookies, you would have made a profit in the last 4 out of 5 seasons! So I’ve figured that by eliminating some we can make this profit even greater! I’m not sure of the best way to do this but I’m going to trial picking the half of the fixtures that I believe the draw is the most likely so that will be 5 bets. Why 5 I hear you ask? Well, this means I will only need to find 2 to make a decent profit! Sounds easy huh? Well we’ll see how this goes but I may tinker with the rules slightly as I see fit and I’ll knock-up a new spreadsheet if this proves any good.
Here are my selections for this week:
Date
Home
Away
Draw?
Best Odds
01-Dec-12
West Ham
Chelsea
Yes
3.5
01-Dec-12
Arsenal
Swansea
No
4.63
01-Dec-12
Fulham
Tottenham
No
3.46
01-Dec-12
Liverpool
Southampton
No
5.11
01-Dec-12
Man City
Everton
Yes
4.48
01-Dec-12
QPR
Aston Villa
Yes
3.57
01-Dec-12
West Brom
Stoke
Yes
3.46
01-Dec-12
Reading
Man Utd
No
5
02-Dec-12
Norwich
Sunderland
No
3.4
02-Dec-12
Newcastle
Wigan
Yes
3.5





Tonight’s Premier League


Tonight’s Premier League

Hoping for some big away performances tonight!!

Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
28-Nov-12
Southampton
Norwich
Norwich
4.2
28-Nov-12
Swansea
West Brom
West Brom
3.31
28-Nov-12
Tottenham
Liverpool
Liverpool
3
28-Nov-12
Chelsea
Fulham
Fulham
8.25
28-Nov-12
Everton
Arsenal
Arsenal
3.04
28-Nov-12
Man Utd
West Ham
West Ham
13.8
28-Nov-12
Wigan
Man City
Man City
1.53

*UPDATE – Somehow missed off Stoke… Have them at evens so they are the bet for me at 2.26.






Tonight’s Premier League


Tonight’s Premier League

Quick post with tonight’s Premier League Selections. I’m shocked to see Sunderland at 2.6 and tempted to make this one bigger than usual (but I won’t). I know they have had some bad results but they have been unlucky and QPR are dire!
More to follow on Thursday about the recent results.
Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
27-Nov-12
Sunderland
QPR
Sunderland
2.55
27-Nov-12
Aston Villa
Reading
Draw
3.5






A Profit at last!


A Profit at last!

After 2 of the most dreadful week’s results ever, it was great to see a profit from last week’s games. It was only a slight one of 11.11% and it was so nearly another disastrous one until Norwich surprisingly beat Man United 1- at a home. I said surprisingly but I did say that it was a big price for a home team against a far from convincing Man United in recent weeks.
I am still showing a loss for the season (-22.53%) though and although it’s still relatively early days, I was trying to think if I’m doing anything different. One thing I do that I didn’t last season was actually input the home/away/draw average percentages into my spread sheet for each game and tinker with them from there. The idea behind this was to get more accurate and even more impressive results but I am now thinking that this has had a negative effect. Whereas before my opinions would be strong and somewhat dismissive of average facts and now my opinion is perhaps being watered down a little and I’m seeing this too similar to the markets. So this week I’ve tried hard not to let this influence too much as I do have fairly strong opinions for this weekend’s games. After this week I think it will be best not to use the historical average percentages as a starting point.
I was made aware of a new betting site called Bet Butler today whilst listening to Talksport. It appears that they act as a betting broker, getting you the best available prices from all the bookmakers. I liked the idea initially as it can be tedious hunting for good prices and trying to get enough money on but then I realised that they take 3% commission so doesn’t this make hunting for the best prices a tad pointless. I’m sure they’ll say that this still works out better than betfair after their 5% commission but I’m not convinced. I think it would have been better if they could have worked out some sort of commission on the business they bring to the bookmaker instead of charging the client. If anyone has any experience with them or has any insightful thoughts on this please let me know.
Here are this week’s selections!

Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
24-Nov-12
Sunderland
West Brom
Sunderland
2.5
24-Nov-12
Everton
Norwich
Norwich
7.5
24-Nov-12
Man Utd
QPR
Draw
8.2
24-Nov-12
Stoke
Fulham
Fulham
3.75
24-Nov-12
Wigan
Reading
Wigan
1.95
24-Nov-12
Aston Villa
Arsenal
Arsenal
1.75
25-Nov-12
Chelsea
Man City
Draw
3.57
25-Nov-12
Southampton
Newcastle
Newcastle
3.22
25-Nov-12
Swansea
Liverpool
Swansea
3.6
25-Nov-12
Tottenham
West Ham
West Ham
6





Premier League Profits – Week 6


Premier League Profits – Week 6

Praying for a decent week this week! I do like the selections my percentage estimates indicate this week though. There’s a few draws in there for a start! It’s always a bit concerning going against Man Utd but they’ve been conceding a lot of goals and they can’t come back from 2-0 down every week. I’ve also underestimated Norwich in previous weeks and 7-1 is a big price for a home team so here’s hoping.

Can’t really understand why Liverpool are so short and I foresee a low scoring affair there and the draw looks a good price to me. Good luck with all your bets.

http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets_2012_2013.xlsx

Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
16-Nov-12
Arsenal
Tottenham
Arsenal
2
16-Nov-12
Liverpool
Wigan
Draw
4.61
16-Nov-12
Man City
Aston Villa
Draw
7
16-Nov-12
Newcastle
Swansea
Draw
3.64
16-Nov-12
QPR
Southampton
QPR
2
16-Nov-12
Reading
Everton
Everton
1.88
16-Nov-12
West Brom
Chelsea
Chelsea
2.07
16-Nov-12
Norwich
Man Utd
Norwich
8
17-Nov-12
Fulham
Sunderland
NONE
18-Nov-12
West Ham
Stoke
West Ham
2.05





Betting Lessons


Betting Lessons

Another poor week this week and the ROI for the season is now -33%. Two pretty bad losing weeks in a row and there are a couple of betting lessons here for anyone that’s following these tips. This bad streak shows you just what can happen, no matter how good your record is and how much profit you have made. Results like these emphasise the importance of risking a small percentage of your overall funds on each bet. I recommend using 1% of your funds for betting and 5% for trading. As we all know Kelly is the optimal strategy but I’d only used this if you have a proven record historically and a measured approach to your betting, otherwise you’ll be prone to over staking and overestimating your edge.
It’s also important to note that just because you’ve made a profit in the past doesn’t guarantee anything in the future, far from it. “Past performance is no indicator of future performance” or something like that is the disclaimer normally quoted. Markets can change, teams change too whilst your ideas about them may/may not. There are a lot of factors to consider but keep calm as they say and ride the storm.
There are a lot of draws happening at the moment. Fulham in particular seem to be involved in high scoring draws every week and that cannot and will not continue! Yes I’ve emphasised just how good value the draw can be but they’re over performing even for them! As the season goes on, we’ll learn more about the premier league teams and I’m confident of returning to profit for this season soon.





Premier League Profits – Week 5


Premier League Profits – Week 5

Pretty disastrous week last week with only 1 winning bet! I said the draw findings may come back to bite me after my selections chose few of them and the home matches. Despite all that if Newcastle had held on against Liverpool we would have almost broke even which shows what a fine line it can be short term. If Reading had also held on we’d have made a nice profit.

As it is we have a fair bit of catching up to do now. This week there’s no big prices in my selections which generally means I agree with the market there or there abouts, so let’s hope for a predictable week! I do think Norwich and Swansea are decent prices and the draw a tad high in the Everton game but the rest all look small value to me but we’ll see.

Good luck all.

http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets_2012_2013.xlsx

Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
10-Nov-12
Arsenal
Fulham
Arsenal
1.57
10-Nov-12
Everton
Sunderland
Draw
4.59
10-Nov-12
Reading
Norwich
Norwich
3.32
10-Nov-12
Stoke
QPR
Stoke
2
10-Nov-12
Wigan
West Brom
Wigan
2.4
10-Nov-12
Southampton
Swansea
Swansea
3.04
10-Nov-12
Aston Villa
Man Utd
Man Utd
1.53
11-Nov-12
Man City
Tottenham
NONE
11-Nov-12
Newcastle
West Ham
Newcastle
2.05
11-Nov-12
Chelsea
Liverpool
Chelsea
2





Premier League Profits – Week 4 Bets


Premier League Profits – Week 4 Bets

Rather amusingly my selections appear to be contrary to my advice and my findings a la the draw in my previous post, with my bets this week comprising of just 1 draw, 3 home and 5 away selections! However, we were talking long term and across the board before and some weeks there will be huge value in one or two away prices too. Also 2 of the top 3 are away and this obviously affects things too. It all depends on the odds and I try to give as unbiasedd a  percentage prediction as possible before even seeing what’s available.

One thing’s for sure it’s going to be an interesting week and I wonder if I’ll end up regretting that I didn’t push my predictions more to the long term percentages.

Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
03-Nov-12
Man Utd
Arsenal
NONE
03-Nov-12
Fulham
Everton
Fulham
2.82
03-Nov-12
Norwich
Stoke
Stoke
2.7
03-Nov-12
Sunderland
Aston Villa
Sunderland
2.16
03-Nov-12
Swansea
Chelsea
Chelsea
1.9
03-Nov-12
Tottenham
Wigan
Draw
4.56
03-Nov-12
West Ham
Man City
Man City
1.74
04-Nov-12
Liverpool
Newcastle
Newcastle
6.89
04-Nov-12
QPR
Reading
Reading
4.68
04-Nov-12
West Brom
Southampton
West Brom
1.76

http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets_2012_2013.xlsx