Monthly Archives: October 2012


Why draws are best


Why draws are best

It was a good week for prem profits after landing 2 draws at the weekend and the weekly ROI standing at 11.44%. Still not quite enough to see us back in the green but I’m confident it won’t be long! See updated sheet here:  http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets_2012_2013.xlsx The Liverpool v Everton draw was not unexpected but the 2-2 a tad lucky esp with Suarez having a legitimate goal chalked off but the 0-0 between Stoke and Sunderland was very predictable and justified the low draw price. There were also wins at short prices for Man City and Tottenham but the draws were what made the difference.
It’s often said that draws are the best result for a bookmaker because the least amount of money is on this selection and that sometimes the draw price will be bumped up to try and attract money but a lot of things are said in betting and football and I decided to see just how true this one and the facts were very interesting. Below shows the average best draw price and the actual draw percentage for each season. Where the percentage at the bookies is less than the actual draw percentage we can make a profit and it turns out that if you backed the draw at the best available price pre-match you would have made a profit in 4 out of the last 5 premier league seasons with the one loss being only 0.05%! No wonder Cassini finds it so easy to find value with his draw selections! Obviously his prices are taken from  those on betfair but I would expect the results to be pretty similar.

 

Season Avg Home Odds % Actual Home % Diff
2002/03 48.1 45.01 -3.09
2003/04 47.44 45.29 -2.15
2004/05 46.82 45.3 -1.52
2005/06 46.74 44.46 -2.28
2006/07 46.94 46.04 -0.9
2007/08 46.78 44.75 -2.03
2008/09 46.16 45.03 -1.13
2009/10 46.67 45.7 -0.97
20010/11 46.61 45.39 -1.22
20011/12 46.75 44.47 -2.28
Avg Away Odds % Actual Away % Diff
2002/03 29.89 26.69 -3.2
2003/04 30.38 26.35 -4.03
2004/05 29.78 26.95 -2.83
2005/06 29.99 27.26 -2.73
2006/07 30.21 28.13 -2.08
2007/08 29.92 28.07 -1.85
2008/09 29.68 27.94 -1.74
2009/10 30.47 27.4 -3.07
20010/11 29.11 27.49 -1.62
20011/12 29.62 28.78 -0.84
Avg Draw Odds % Actual Draw % Diff
2002/03 28.76 28.3 -0.46
2003/04 28.6 28.36 -0.24
2004/05 28.51 27.75 -0.76
2005/06 27.83 28.27 0.44
2006/07 27.89 25.83 -2.06
2007/08 26.96 27.18 0.22
2008/09 27.08 27.03 -0.05
2009/10 25.82 26.9 1.08
20010/11 26.36 27.12 0.76
20011/12 25.59 26.75 1.16

*Analysis of data taken from http://www.football-data.co.uk/

As you can see backing the home win offers the next best returns (albeit a loss) after the draw and the away odds offer the least value in general.
I also decided to see how the overround looked for the summation of the best prices available for each of the 3 outcomes and here’s what I found:
Season Avg Overround
2002/03 106.75
2003/04 106.42
2004/05 105.11
2005/06 104.55
2006/07 105.04
2007/08 103.65
2008/09 102.92
2009/10 102.97
20010/11 102.08
20011/12 101.96
*Analysis of data taken from http://www.football-data.co.uk/We can see that the overround is decreasing year on year, no doubt due to the increased competition in bookmaking and the exchanges but also perhaps because bookmakers are more confident than ever in the accuracy of their prices with the aid of clever computer programs. It could even be that the bookies realise that they don’t need much (if any) overround to profit from most punters due to their haphazard staking and chasing habits. Either way it’s good to see the overround for the summation best prices not far off 100% and in theory it means it should be easier than ever before for the shrewd punter to profit from betting on the premier league.

 

So if you want to bet on a premier league match but are not sure where the value lies, go for the draw. If you don’t see a draw happening then back the home team as the away team are likely to be the poorest value selection.






Bad Luck


Bad Luck

Last week was not a good week for my Prem profits and possibly the worst week on record. I did say the renaming to ‘Prem Profits’ would jinx them! We are now showing a loss for the season but am I worried, no! We are only 2 weeks in and you know what they say, “form is temporary but class is permanent.” Cliché’s aside all people who bet or tip will have losing spells and weekly results or even monthly results should be of little significance. The whole concept of probability and variance will mean that you will lose some week and months even if you are getting value. If you are making lots of bets though like we are here, then the chances of you losing of 3/6/12 months is much less likely and if you are losing after these periods you should probably assess if you are getting value. The trouble is a lot of people expect their betting bank to keep on hitting new highs and maintaining the faith after dropping down from that new bank high somewhat can be difficult but it’s easier when you remind yourself it’s expected. I read somewhere that if you bet at about evens with a 5% (ish) edge  you should expect you bank to hit a new high only 5% of the time. That’s an incredible 19 out of 20 days below that previous high!
Here is a clip about Billy Walters. He prices up NFL and basketball and is probably one of the world’s biggest punters. Even he has losing streaks. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FAUQ6SFKM
With Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United all winning comfortably, there was no profit from these and you won’t find value long term backing these. We were unlucky in some respect, Fulham snatching a late winner when we had backed the draw and Newcastle going down to ten and then conceding late when we backed them to win. In hindsight I perhaps priced Arsenal too low and they lost out to Norwich. I am very careful about pricing teams low and this is probably the first I have lost out in. I really felt Arsenal had turned the corner and would match up well to a leaky Norwich but perhaps the departure of Van Persie is having more of an effect than I thought. If we look back at their games so far this season we can see Arsenal are better defensively but they are scoring less goals per game and have failed to score on 3 occasions now.  Mis-pricing the odd one or two won’t matter when betting at level stakes as we will get more values than not but results such as this show how difficult betting using Kelly stakes can be.
Finally, a programme I caught on BBC3 last week about probability and bad luck. There’s ‘probably’ not much you fellow betting enthusiasts don’t know but it’s still interesting all the same. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p00yh2rc/Tails_You_Win_The_Science_of_Chance/
Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
27-Oct-12
Aston Villa
Norwich
Aston Villa
2.01
27-Oct-12
Arsenal
QPR
Arsenal
1.4
27-Oct-12
Reading
Fulham
Fulham
2.62
27-Oct-12
Stoke
Sunderland
Draw
3.4
27-Oct-12
Wigan
West Ham
West Ham
3.38
27-Oct-12
Man City
Swansea
NONE
28-Oct-12
Everton
Liverpool
Draw
3.36
28-Oct-12
Newcastle
West Brom
West Brom
4
28-Oct-12
Southampton
Tottenham
Tottenham
1.87
28-Oct-12
Chelsea
Man Utd
Chelsea
2.5





Premier League Profits


Premier League Profits

 

 

 

 

 

Ahhh, isn’t good to have the Premier League back?! Just a quick post to let you know where I see the value in the Premier League this weekend…

 

Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
Tottenham
Chelsea
Tottenham
3.3
Fulham
Aston Villa
Draw
3.95
Liverpool
Reading
Reading
12
Man Utd
Stoke
Draw
5.75
Swansea
Wigan
Wigan
3.8
West Brom
Man City
Man City
1.76
West Ham
Southampton
West Ham
1.91
Norwich
Arsenal
Arsenal
1.57
Sunderland
Newcastle
Newcastle
3.03
QPR
Everton
Everton
2.3





Betting Community


betting-community

Betting Community

Whilst betting/trading is a very solitary activity, since I joined twitter I have very much felt the sense of a betting community. It more than makes up for what is now lacking on the betfair forum. I don’t tweet as much as I like (aim to increase) but read daily and the fast paced nature and character limit is perfect for the witty betting banter insight and comments of betting enthusiasts. I admittedly have had my struggles with how much energy, thought and time I have and should be spending on betting and whilst perhaps I have overdone it at times, I am starting to realise just how great the world of sports betting is. Perhaps I felt as if I shouldn’t be occupying so much of my time on it because of other’s opinions but after a bit of a break I have remembered that there aren’t too many things I enjoy more.
Sports on their own are exciting so add money and numbers and you have a dream combination. Betting for most now days is about a mathematical edge, staking plans and trading software. No longer is betting a seedy past time of the poor and obsessive compulsive who walks into Ladbrokes and blow the rent money but is now instead a hobby or even a profession for intelligent people. So whether you do it for fun, a few extra beer tokens or aspire to make a living from it, it’s time to enjoy being part of the sports betting community.
After all, enjoying it is certainly no worse than enjoying X factor and aspiring to make a living from it is no more deluded than 90% of the X factor applicants!
Here are my current top 10 sports betting related people (in no particular order) to follow on twitter:
@BorisRanting (Scott Ferguson) – Finger on the pulse of the betting industry. Excellent knowledge of racing and tennis and advice on ale!   
@FluffsFault (Fluffs) –  Posts some very funny tweets and a decent tip or two. Prolific tweeter.
@EddyGecko (Eddy Gecko) – Lots of opinions and banter. Also a Prolific tweeter.
@InnoBystander (Innocent Bystander) – Listed because I remember some absolute classic tweets from him.
@marklangdon  (Mark Langdon) – Racing posts football expert and also on Talksport (Mondays). The modern-day statto.
@Sports_Punter (Sports Punter) – Reading his tweets, you’d think he’d never won a bet in his life but his pessimistic outlook is amusing.
@Calciocassini (Cassini) – Doesn’t tweet much but his Green All Over blog forms a big part of the betting community.
@markyiverson (Mark Iverson) – Expert Cricket Trader. Managed to withstand multiple Cassini attacks.
@GamblerFalls (Stephen Maher) – Another cricket trader with good betting knowledge.
@ms_arsenal (Stephanie King) – Attractive women who enjoy sports and gambling are rare!





Prem Profits Deliver!


Prem Profits Deliver!

Prem Profits thankfully lived up to its name over the weekend, bringing home an ROI of 21.40%. Although one week means very little, the signs of my being able to repeat the kind of profits that I achieved last year are good.
The weekend went very close to how I expected, with Man City and Chelsea winning pretty easily but there was certainly no value in their prices for me, against teams that are more the capable of springing a surprise against any team and the draw prices looked very appealing but it wasn’t to be this time.
I did however, manage to pick out the draws in the Swansea/Wigan and Liverpool/Stoke games which provided most of my profits and the very impressive Arsenal continued their progress too in a match I feel they definitely would have dropped points in last season. West Brom also ensured QPR’s poor form continued and I would have said this was the selection I was most confident with prior to the weekend.
I would have expected at least one of Everton and Fulham to have claimed all 3 points and although Fulham looked like they would do so in taking the lead in the final few minutes they conceded a last minute goal.
Level stakes triumphed over Kelly once again and again one week means very little but I would really like to see the Kelly stakes fair better than they did last season. My results clearly show that I am finding selections that offer value but my tissue prices could perhaps be more accurate. We do however know that last season provided more away wins and wins on big priced underdogs so perhaps level stakes over performed? Who knows…  It’ll certainly be interesting to monitor the comparison again this season.
All in all though, I have to be pleased with the first week and hopefully more of the same to come!
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
Profit/Loss
Man City
Sunderland
Draw
6.24
-10.00
Chelsea
Norwich
Draw
6.56
-10.00
Swansea
Reading
Draw
3.62
26.20
Wigan
Everton
Everton
2.03
-10.00
West Brom
QPR
West Brom
1.91
9.10
West Ham
Arsenal
Arsenal
2.05
10.50
Southampton
Fulham
Fulham
2.81
-10.00
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Draw
4.71
-10.00
Liverpool
Stoke
Draw
4.56
35.60
Newcastle
Man Utd
Newcastle
4.33
-10.00





‘Premier League Profits!’


PL_logo_lion_hearted1

‘Premier League Profits!’

Originally known as ‘premier league predictions’ then ‘premiership value selections’, my premier league tissue prices are back! After the success of them last season (17.88% ROI from 169 bets) and at the risk of jinxing them, I am now going to rename them for the third and hopefully final time and call them ‘Premier League Profits’! It has a great ring to it don’t you think? That’s how confident I am of showing a posit ROI once again come May. J

I won’t be going into massive detail each week about why I have priced them up in such a way but all I will say is that I start with what I consider fair %s for all the selections (45%home 27%away 28% draw) and then I move the out based on form and most importantly the ability of the teams to score goals against each other.
The first 6 games have given me plenty to evaluate the team’s prices now and here is a quick blast of random thoughts on some of the teams so far.
Man United have more goals in them than last season but they are weaker in midfield and defensively especially without Vidic. I expect them to drop more points than usual a t least until they make some new signings in January.
Arsenal have impressed me a lot! They started off struggling for goals but their approach is looking much more professional this season and they’re definitely on the up.
Chelsea are doing ok much like last season. I think they need to improve and add one or two more to challenge Man city but they look solid. City have dawn 3 already but I have been very impressed performance-wise.
Everton have impressed and Moyes appears to have got the team to a new level in his Kaizen type approach. They are good defensively as always but also have goals in Jelavic and also Anichibe and Felaini to some extent. They finished strongly last season and having a settled Jelavic from the start is making a difference.
Liverpool are very much a team in progress and I think Rodgers will get it right given time. He desperately needs additions to compete with the big boys and win those tight games when Suarez is mis-firing but they are very much in a false position right now and will grow in confidence.
QPR have disappointed especially after the big signings they made. They were overrated odds-wise but are being found out now. Southampton have conceded a lot of goals but I’m surprised with their ability to score them too. It does look bleak for them and Norwich but being able to score goals usually serves you better than keeping them out so that’s bad news for teams like Wigan, Reading and QPR. I fear for Villa, I like Lambert but I think they have a very poor squad at the moment.
Allardyce is shrewd and will get the absolute maximum out of his players. They are definitely staying up.
Anyway, here are my selections for this week. Why not have a go yourself. All you need to do is input your percentages, then the odds and the sheet tells you where the value lies based on your estimations of probability. This is by far the most successful way to decide who to bet on and prevents bias, stopping you betting on just who you think will win. We should after all be trying to find value and NOT predict outcomes!
Here’s a link to the sheet for the new season: http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets_2012_2013.xlsx
Here’s last season’s too incase you didn’t know how good I was 😉http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets_2011_2012.xlsx
Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
06-Oct-12
Man City
Sunderland
Draw
6.24
06-Oct-12
Chelsea
Norwich
Draw
6.56
06-Oct-12
Swansea
Reading
Draw
3.62
06-Oct-12
Wigan
Everton
Everton
2.03
06-Oct-12
West Brom
QPR
West Brom
1.91
06-Oct-12
West Ham
Arsenal
Arsenal
2.05
07-Oct-12
Southampton
Fulham
Fulham
2.81
07-Oct-12
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Draw
4.71
07-Oct-12
Liverpool
Stoke
Draw
4.56
07-Oct-12
Newcastle
Man Utd
Newcastle
4.33