Monthly Archives: September 2012


It’s been a while…


It’s been a while…

It’s been a while…
Apologies for the lack of posts. I was busy having fun over the summer, holidaying and whatnot but still found time for some betting but not too much.  Looking at my last blog entry it appears it was done just after Wimbledon when the plucky Brit Andy Murray lost in heroic fashion and my post highlights what it takes to be successful and that those that are learn how to take and accept failure and keep working to improve. It’s almost as if I knew he was onto something as he has since gone on to win an Olympic gold medal and his first ever grand slam!
Anyway, I’m planning on increasing my betting activity again and bringing back the Premier League Selections. I planned to wait 6 games in before starting this again just so I have some form to work form. Early on in the season it’s difficult to get to grips with pricing up teams who seem like they should be good on paper and I think it can be wise to wait a while to see how things are turning out. QPR are a good example of this as multiple impressive new signings saw them go off at 4/5 on the opening day only for them to be hammered 5-0!
Haven’t done much trading at all recently and readers of this blog will remember my constant battle of profiting from tennis trading and the time spent doing it. I have a full time job and finding the time to trade was always difficult and testing when you hit a loser or two so now I’m looking at automating some trading and have written a few simple bots to get me going. I think it’s going to be hard to full replicate my trading strategies as they often rely on things you can see as well as huge deviations from the starting price. The bots are nothing more than a trial really and if my prem selections continue where they left off last season, I think I will be happy enough with increasing the stakes on these. We’re currently 5 games in so look out for these in a week or so.
One thing that got me thinking while I’ve been dormant was a post by Cassini about trading and when you trade yo are trying to maximise the winnings from that particular market. Obvious stuff you may think but I think this is often forgotten and far too many people look to green out for a level win when you are in a strong position on the likely winner. I myself have often get in and out for a couple of ticks when you’d be better off not betting at all and waiting for a real opportunity to occur. Turnover is important when it comes to betting as I have previously discussed but it’s also important to recognise where most of your profit comes from (80-20 a la Pareto) and if you overdo it or force it you are liable to succumb to the law of diminishing returns!