Firstly, apologies for the lack of posts and for the halt to my daily tip and euro 2012 value selections. I have been preoccupied with a lot of things recently including working on a site that makes it easy for people to follow my tips and where I can easily post sport related content. This is very much a long term work in progress though!
Because of these preoccupations, I have found less time to bet but miraculously have made much more profit. The reason being I have relied a lot more on pre-match value bets and inplay opportunities when they arise rather than trying to seek them out. If I know a bet is value but not exactly by how much I have been betting a fixed stake (roughly 2%) and if I can calculate what I think the true price is I up my stake accordingly (Kelly). 9 times out of 10 I have been using the fixed stake but this method along with not trying too hard o seek out opportunities and simply letting them appear via successful tipsters or my own judgement on a high profile game has paid dividends.
So it got me thinking about working hard at something and why it doesn’t always seem to be that the harder you work at something the more you reap from it. Everyone tells you how important working hard is when you are growing up but I believe myself to have worked harder than most people I know and I’m not really any wealthier and certainly no happier and so I wondered why this might be. The answer I came up with is that perhaps I have worked too hard to be successful and because of that I have explored areas I don’t necessarily enjoy and consequently haven’t been able to stick at. Also when you try and force things and overdo them, you can tire of them very easily and the pressure you put yourself under really takes its toll.
I am beginning to realise that working hard is already in my nature and it’s more important for me to concentrate on doing things that I enjoy. Sometimes I will work long and hard at something that I don’t enjoy and long term this is fruitless because you can’t stick at it and the effort just doesn’t seem worth it. It’s very easy for anyone to work hard at something they truly enjoy and so I think it’s about time we taught kids to focus on this first before working hard. And it’s not just about the job that you are doing it’s analysing which individual tasks within the job give you the most satisfaction. When you can identify these, you have a solid foundation for success.
This is something that I have considered in a lot of aspects in my life at the minute and it’s really helping. In terms of betting, it is something that will always be there and that I will always enjoy. Never more so than when it’s a bet on something I really enjoy watching. There are plenty of opportunities that arise without trying to seek them out on things where my knowledge and confidence is reduced and I can’t bet with any real confidence or enjoyment. Although I enjoy blogging and finding tips, trying to blog every week and finding one tip every single day has been difficult to keep up. I’m almost certain that my blog posts and tip results have suffered in quality because of the necessity to keep them going and this is why I’m going to ease off for a bit and also why I am working on a new site that will make it much easier to post my tips if and when I have them or when they arise to me!
Quite simply less is often more and sometimes you can try too hard.
Nice win on the Czech’s last night but extremely surprised by the Russians losing to Greece. Russia had the most ability in the group and it’s a shame they couldn’t do enough to make it through. Maybe Greece will win the whole thing again?! God forbid.
Kelly stakes are showing an impressive 20% return but level stakes are just short of breaking even. I previously thought it was virtually impossible to show a profit using Kelly if you weren’t profitable at level stakes and my results so far would suggest I was wrong and this is something I may look into further.
It seems I agree bang on with how the market price up the Portugal v Netherlands match with the Netherlands desperate to win and us both making them slight favourites. I do feel Germany are a bit on the short side and I’m going with the draw at 4s. A stand out bet and my tip of the day today though is the under 2.5 goals on this match. I expected it to be odds on but you can get 2.2 for this currently. #Value
A bit of a contradiction for me today as my bet of the day is Spain to score in both halves yet I see the value in the match markets on Ireland. So unless Ireland win 3-2 or better, one of these bets will definitely lose! I realise Spain is the most likely result and I can see them scoring both halves but the match odds are nothing short of ridiculous! Ireland aren’t that bad and well 16.5 is a huge price in my opinion.
Germany’s win saw us back in the profit at a measly 2.32% for the tournament last night but the Kelly return is at a whopping 31.71%, meaning that I’m understanding how much value lies in each particular game pretty well so far. In my premier league betting Kelly was always slightly below the return of that of level stakes but there were perhaps more win for massive underdogs than you would normally see in the prem last season and this could go some way to explain this. I’ve always been interested and excited about Kelly staking so I’m hoping these results can continue.
I’ve talked about how motivation in sport is very important before and the mentality of players/teams is equally important and goes hand in hand with this. The mentality of most teams in the first round of games in the Euros was not to get beat. Many were happy to settle for a draw or sneak a win but now we are on the second round of games, I expect this to be very different.
Whereas before most games were under 2.5 goals and teams put many players behind the ball, circumstances will be different given that some teams need to get a win to stay in the competition. This is why I think we saw so many headed goals in the first round of games because there was little space in behind defences as most teams were playing not to lose. So I would expect to see more goals and the teams with more ability in the final third coming out on top in the next round of games.
I actually missed both of the games yesterday and wasn’t able to bet. Had I done so I think I would have priced up the Czech’s pretty short so would probably have won there but I also believed Russia were most likely to win in the second game against Poland and wouldn’t have given the draw to much weight.
Holland will have to do more attacking tonight as they must feel 3 points is crucial and I actually think this will play into Germany’s hands. Holland looked sluggish when they didn’t have possession and lacked a clear game plan to me. When will Robben release the bloody ball! Germany will probably be happy with a point but we are talking about the ruthless German’s so the value has to be with them but you could always play it safe and lay the Dutch!
I expect the game between Denmark and Portugal to be a bit more cagey at least to start. Denmark will probably feel they have their tactics spot on after their win against Holland and will be reluctant against Portugal who should come guns blazing but if Denmark get the first on the counter they will probably shut up shop. Denmark have impressed me with their tactics against Holland and I think 4-1 is too big so I see value with Denmark on this one.
Back to reality with 2 losses on the Euro’s yesterday. I still think Spian were value at 1.9 and perhaps should have taken all 3 points really. I must admit I probably over-estimated Ireland’s chances a little. Although I had them as underdogs 28% chance of and Ireland win was too high and Croatia were an even money bet on reflection and I got the value wrong on this one. Let’s see if I can do better tonight.
Just when you think it can’t possibly get any better for Lionel Messi, he goes and bags himself a hat trick against the best footballing nation in the world and takes his tally to an almost fictitious 82 for the season in all competitions. Below is a video of the goals from the game in which the now indisputable best player of all time caps of his hatrick with a 30 yard screamer. Enjoy.
I am providing you with such a good service here that I may have to start charging if it continues! First I gave you 18% Return on the Premier league, supplemented by my tip of the day which is currently at 7.46% ROI and then I tell you to dutch Djokovic and Nadal for 20% return and back Maria Sharpova at 6-1 to win the French Open… I hope you’ve been following!
It’s early days in the Euros but 3 wins from the fisrt 4 games and a return of 100% is a perfect start. Let’s hope it can continue. Today’s value picks are below. Incidentally Kelly is outperforming level stakes currently so it looks like I’m pricing up the markets pretty well.
Great start to the Euros both entertainment wise and betting wise and it’s 100% start for me. Tonight’s game offer value on both the favourites in my opinion, in particular on Germany as I think Portugal’s chances are inflated too much due to them having Cristiano Ronaldo.
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