Monthly Archives: April 2012


Best Time to Bet


Best Time to Bet

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts getting value and the best odds if crucial to betting and it got me thinking when is the best time to get the best odds with your bookmaker of choice. So I checked the prices of the premier league selections and what the overround was on Thursday and then again right before kick off on Saturday. Obviously there is not going to be a hard and fast rule where everything changes the same way as each individual market has its own team news, injuries etc. but I wanted to see if there were any general patterns.
The overround started at around 102.5 for each game on Thursday and by Saturday it was less than 102 on more than half the matches and all were smaller than they were on Thursday. This would lead you to think that ‘right before the off is the best time to bet as the market as a whole is more accurate. However, the odds on selections had decreased and the big priced aways, underdogs and draws had either stayed the same or increased in price. So it seems that if you plan on betting on what you suspect is a popular low priced favourite then it’s imperative to get the bet on as soon as possible and if you think an outsider has a better chance than others will probably suspect then wait until right before the off.
This might seem obvious to most as the odds will be adjusted to the weight of money already placed by punters and not the actual perceived chances but it’s something I have never really tried to take advantage of and it’s another weapon in our armoury that can help us profit form betting. I think the reason the overround gets smaller closer to the off is because all team information but also where they have already taken a decent amount and can lay at odds to reflect what they have taken so far, usually on favourites at shorter prices than the real chance if them winning.
On to results then and it’s been a pretty dismal weekend for me. The tip of the day has had a record 6 losses in a row which has hit me pretty hard and the Prem Selections made a small loss of 12.22% this week. I said there’d be more draws and home wins and although I did manage to land 2 of the draws my percentages on the home wins were clearly still not generous enough. I will again keep this in mind next week but it’s a fine line because most of my profits have come from landing the unexpected and one week’s loss does by no means mean my percentages were incorrect.
For those of you wondering how my in play trading has gotten on since my Eureka moment, I am reporting mixed findings. Leaving value bets to run has certainly made me more profit. I backed several low priced favs a set down last week and let value take its course where previously I would have traded out. On the other hand making lots of value bets is certainly more stressful and there are times where fixed staking doesn’t make sense. An example of this is when I feel a favourite’s price has bottomed out far too early and there is plenty of time for the opponent to get back in. In this case I’m anticipating that the odds will likely change in my favour and not necessarily that the price is incorrect and so when it happens it makes sense to trade out for less than my fixed stake because the favourite will likely still win and I want some of my green on them!
Sometimes trading is about pre-empting fluctuations and you can do this without finding inaccurate prices. In fact as a whole most 1.1’s probably do win 9 times out of 10 in the long run but the course each takes will be very different. You also have to consider that it’s difficult to find the time to trade 100 matches so even though letting a lay bet on the fav will provide more profit in the long run when it is you are going to be able to trade 100 matches can be pretty uncertain. There is no perfect strategy in trading but some consistency certainly helps e.g. your initial stake but perhaps I am guilty of trying to make my strategy too rigid. Anyhow here is the updated weekly and monthly prem selections summary:
Weekly Totals
Week
Units staked
P/L
ROI
1
100
49.44
49.44%
2
100
54.41
54.41%
3
90
-43.21
-48.01%
4
100
15.03
15.03%
5
100
-9.11
-9.11%
6
70
-11.34
-16.19%
7
100
15.50
15.50%
8
90
-14.70
-16.33%
9
90
40.60
45.11%
10
100
-13.00
-13.00%
11
100
29.50
29.50%
12
80
42.70
53.38%
13
100
147.00
147.00%
14
30
-14.30
-47.67%
15
110
84.90
77.18%
16
90
-11.00
-12.22%
TOTAL
1450
362.42
24.99%
Monthly Totals
Month
Units staked
P/L
ROI
January
240
81.64
34.01%
February
320
-26.42
-8.25%
March
450
73.90
16.42%
April
440
233.30
53.02%
May
TOTAL
1450
362.42
24.99%





Premier League Historical Trends


Premier League Historical Trends

*Firstly, I hvave just realised that the links to my spreadsheets on the site are not working and I’m currently working with my webhosts to get this sorted. Should be sorted before the end of the day.

Whilst I’m obviously delighted that I have managed to profit so much with my prem selections recently, I wanted to try and understand why I have been able to do so. When you consider I’ have placing bets on virtually every game in the world’s most popular league in markets that are slightly overround, to get a return of 27.59% after 136 games looks impossible. So do I possess natural psychic skills comparable to that of Paul the Octopus or are the Premier League results different to that of previous seasons and causing havoc for the odds compilers? Here’s what I found:
Season 2009/10 and 2010/11 Stats compared with this season so far:

Season
Home %
Away %
Draw %
2009/10
50.79
23.42
25.26
2010/11
46.84
23.68
29.21
This season so far
44.93
31.01
24.06

As you can see there have been a lot more away wins than we would normally expect to see and also a few less draws. This would go some way to explaining my success, since I rarely price up the draw higher than what is offered and when I have I’ve had big wins due the huge prices offered. Most of my bets end up being on the higher priced away sides too so the overachievement of these has helped me a lot. This mixed in with my ability to spot a short price that deserves to be short has meant I have been able to beat the odds. (Basically the top teams v Wolves!)
So will this continue for the last few games or will we see the overall trends converging towards the average? Well the sample size of 380 games for Premier League matches each season is a very small one so there are certainly no guarantees but my guess is that the number of away wins will go down. I can only see it has one way to go from 30% and last week we saw no away wins whatsoever on the Saturday, though we did see West Brom and Man City win on the Sunday.
Last 34 Games of 2009/10 and 2010/11 and this season so far:

Season
Home %
Away %
Draw %
2009/10
55.88
23.52
20.59
2010/11
47.06
29.41
23.53
This season so far
44.93
31.01
24.06

There are 34 games to go and the above shows how the percentages compare for the last 34 games of the season. Compare that with the first table and what we can see is that the number of home wins is usually greater and even though this was only slightly greater during the 34 games of last season, with the current home win % only 44% I definitely see this going only one way too. Crowds are probably bigger and more passionate at this time of the season and perhaps this adds to the home advantage. The away wins also seem to increase but as I have already said I can’t see it increasing from 30%. The number of draws seems to go down at this time of year but as this figure is lower than usual I would expect it to increase a little. So in summary it looks like the last few games will probably result in definitely more home wins, slightly more draws and definitely less away wins!

Here are this weeks selections followed by the updated monthly profit/loss summary. There was just one game to add from the last update which was the win for Bolton.

Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
Everton
Fulham
Draw
3.6
Stoke
Arsenal
Arsenal
1.91
Sunderland
Bolton
Draw
3.6
Swansea
Wolves
Draw
4.3
West Brom
Aston Villa
West Brom
2.2
Wigan
Newcastle
Newcastle
2.6
Norwich
Liverpool
Norwich
4
Chelsea
QPR
Draw
5
Tottenham
Blackburn
Blackburn
9.5
Man City
Man Utd
NONE
N/A

Monthly Totals
Month
Units staked
P/L
ROI
January
240
81.64
34.01%
February
320
-26.42
-8.25%
March
450
73.90
16.42%
April
350
244.30
69.80%
May
TOTAL
1360
373.42
27.46%





Inplay Trading – My eureka moment


eureka-moment

Inplay Trading – My eureka moment

I have often come across trading blogs were the author all of a sudden claims to have had a eureka moment. It often sounds as though they have just found the key to unlimited profits and will never lose again but often it’s just a eureka moment in terms of approach and that’s the sort of moment I have had recently.

I already profit from tennis trading but find it troublesome. I get frustrated by trading decisions I took in play e.g. greening up too much or not enough and by the fact that it’s very difficult to analyse the trades afterwards. But inspired by my recent discoveries of just how beneficial a measured approach can be in betting and also the power of turnover I decided to think along the same lines with in play betting.

Basically I have decided that any bet I take shall be of the same liability each and every time. It will be in ‘play betting’ and not ‘in play trading’. If I like a bet on either side of the market I take it for the same amount each time. There will be no greening up, no trading out for a free bets or redding out for a level loss. This way decisions are easy, value shines through and I can place much more bets to increase my turnover. Quite often I choose my entry point in a tennis match, later green out and then watch as various volatile market changes take place and lots of value passes by but because I had already made a profitable trade I was too risk averse to re-enter the market.

I think using Betfair makes it all too easy to give away value and make rash decisions. I’ve often said that the best time to trade and find value is early on and to get out before the math has progressed too much and if you are looking to make one trade this is fine but there is also a lot of value to be had later in the match where people get greedy and now I plan to take on these bets too. In reality my stakes were too high to be making several bets per match without worry and I now plan to correct this. The more value bets the better! I will also be able to evaluate my inplay bets better and see where I’m really getting value.

It’s funny because you spend years searching for complicated methods of betting and trading to make the most profit but as with most things in life the best and most effective method is usually the simplest.

Just the one prem match tonight and it’s a tough one to call. Villa are a very defensive team and they don’t really need to win tonight. Bolton on the otehr hand will feel a win is vital and so motivation will be high. This could leave them exposed on the counter attack if they fail to break Villa down but any of the 3 outcomes wouldn’t surprise me and so the highest price of 4.2 on Bolton has to be the value.

Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
Aston Villa
Bolton
Bolton
4.2





Stake Sizes for Betting


Stake Sizes for Betting

The size of your stakes per bet is something which I have mentioned a fair bit recently but this weekend results couple with the aim of more turnover has made me rethink this. I have been using 2% of my bank roll for all my pre-match bets and there was a time I felt this was incredibly conservative but this weekend’s results have made me think otherwise.

To have a chance at being successful in gambling you must make sure you stay in the game even after the most incredible losing run ever. I thought 2% should be ok to achieve this but I now feel I need to spread my bankroll more thinly. As well as making more bets to increase turnover, Saturday proved fruitless as none of my 7 value selections came in and so I was looking at a huge loss. There was not 1 away win despite Swansea and Sunderland coming very close.

To come close to breaking even I needed either a draw at Old Trafford or a win for West Brom at Anfield. I already had Man City to beat Wolves too but at odds of 1.29, that wasn’t going to make up the deficit! Incredibly Man United drew 4-4 despite being 3-1 and 4-2 up. I think the draw was a huge price but in retrospect, probably wasn’t as much value as I initially thought due to the gung-ho attitude of both of the teams. West Brom also sneaked a win at Anfield despite Liverpool missing a hatful of chance and so as unlucky as we were on Saturday with not an away win in site, Sunday’s results more than made up for this and we finished with a weekly return of 52.9% which considering Saturday’s results was incredible.

You may think this is just probability and this kind of ‘lucky’ or ‘unlcuky’ spells are not unusual and it makes sense that the results evened themselves out, to which I would agree but I feel I have to take this as a bit of a warning sign as to what could happen. Up until now I’ve been inputting my percentages firing off money here and there and assured in my head that I will easily get 3 or more results right and end up with a good profit or a small loss but this weekend proved it’s not always the case and at some point I will lose all 10 matches in a weekend, if I do this long enough. That would cost me 20% of my bankroll and another couple of bad weeks and we could be getting close to half the bank gone!

If this were to happen it would be squeaky bum time and I don’t think I could handle this happening too well. It would undo all the hard work I’ve put in and so I’m beginning to think that 1% per bet for all my bets is big enough particularly when you consider I’m hoping to make 50+ bets in total a week. I can now see why people have suggested to me in the past that 0.5% per bet is preferable to them which I previously had dismissed as ridiculous! The more money you can stake on individual bets the better if you have an edge but this figure needs to be repeatable enough times over to cover any losing spells you might have and 2% is looking like it could be a bit too close for comfort despite my good fortune so far.

Here are this weeks results followed by the weekly and monthly summaries:

Home
Away
Selection
Odds
Profit
Arsenal
Wigan
Draw
6
-10.00
Arsenal
Chelsea
Chelsea
3.9
-10.00
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Sunderland
3.3
-10.00
Blackburn
Norwich
Norwich
3.8
-10.00
Bolton
Swansea
Swansea
3.6
-10.00
Fulham
Wigan
Wigan
4.5
-10.00
Newcastle
Stoke
Stoke
5.5
-10.00
QPR
Tottenham
Tottenham
2
-10.00
Man Utd
Everton
Draw
5.5
45.00
Liverpool
West Brom
West Brom
8.5
75.00
Wolves
Man City
Man City
1.29
2.90

Weekly Totals
Week
Units staked
P/L
ROI
1
100
49.44
49.44%
2
100
54.41
54.41%
3
90
-43.21
-48.01%
4
100
15.03
15.03%
5
100
-9.11
-9.11%
6
70
-11.34
-16.19%
7
100
15.50
15.50%
8
90
-14.70
-16.33%
9
90
40.60
45.11%
10
100
-13.00
-13.00%
11
100
29.50
29.50%
12
80
42.70
53.38%
13
100
147.00
147.00%
14
30
-14.30
-47.67%
15
100
52.90
52.90%
TOTAL
1350
341.42
25.29%
Monthly Totals
Week
Units staked
P/L
ROI
January
240
81.64
34.01%
February
320
-26.42
-8.25%
March
450
73.90
16.42%
April
340
212.30
62.44%
May
TOTAL
1350
341.42
25.29%







Motivation


Motivation

Motivation is one of the most important factors in sport and in influencing the outcome of sporting events and at this time of the season it can play a big part in some shocking results. We have already seen Wigan beat Liverpool, Man Utd and Arsenal and I’m sure there’ll be a couple more shocks before the end of the season. That desperation to win for teams trying to avoid relegation sometimes allows lower quality teams to triumph over better ones, who have little to play for.
That said I do believe that too much emphasis has been placed on this for this week’s fixtures. Many of the home teams are under-priced in my opinion. Some of their opponents may have little to play for but there is still an individual motivation to keep your place, cement your place in the team for a cup final or put yourself in the frame for the European championships for example and I think there are a few generous prices there on some of the teams e.g. Norwich, Sunderland and Swansea.
So it’s not surprising that most of my bets this week are on the big priced away teams. Betting on these has been very profitable so far this season and hopefully the trend will continue this week. Some people might think I’m crazy making Man City a value bet at 1.24 but it’ll be the shock of the season for me if Man City don’t win this game.
Here is this week’s selections followed by a weekly summary as well as a new monthly version. Good luck all!
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
Arsenal
Chelsea
Chelsea
3.9
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Sunderland
3.3
Blackburn
Norwich
Norwich
3.8
Bolton
Swansea
Swansea
3.6
Fulham
Wigan
Wigan
4.5
Newcastle
Stoke
Stoke
5.5
QPR
Tottenham
Tottenham
2
Man Utd
Everton
Draw
5.5
Liverpool
West Brom
West Brom
8.5
Wolves
Man City
Man City
1.29
 

Weekly Totals
Week
Units staked
P/L
ROI
1
100
49.44
49.44%
2
100
54.41
54.41%
3
90
-43.21
-48.01%
4
100
15.03
15.03%
5
100
-9.11
-9.11%
6
70
-11.34
-16.19%
7
100
15.50
15.50%
8
90
-14.70
-16.33%
9
90
40.60
45.11%
10
100
-13.00
-13.00%
11
100
29.50
29.50%
12
80
42.70
53.38%
13
100
147.00
147.00%
14
30
-14.30
-47.67%
TOTAL
1250
288.52
23.08%
Monthly Totals
Week
Units staked
P/L
ROI
January
240
81.64
34.01%
February
320
-26.42
-8.25%
March
450
73.90
16.42%
April
240
159.40
66.42%
May
TOTAL
1250
288.52
23.08%






Pinnacle Sports – Bookmaker


Pinnacle Sports – Bookmaker

I have accounts with pretty much every bookmaker going firstly to take advantage of the sign up offers but more importantly to find the best prices on my bets. I do try and place the majority of bets with Betfair but I will go elsewhere if there’s a much better price and Pinnacle Sports are often able to offer this.

A lot of gamblers will not have heard of Pinnacle and to be honest I hadn’t until about a year ago! They are not affiliated to Oddschecker and so don’t appear on their despite much of the time offering the best odds. They probably believe that as they offer the best odds so frequently that they don’t need to pay to advertise this fact.

Unfortunately Pinnacle have no App for smart phones at present which I’m a little disappointed about but the fact that Pinnacle won’t ban you if you are a winner and that they very rarely limit your bets more than makes up for this. They are that confident in their pricing that they offer most markets at 98 or 99% and this I why they feel they can offer people the best odds.

I’ve talked a lot recently about the importance of getting the best odds and turning over lots of bets and in my opinion Pinnacle is up there with Betfair when it comes to allowing you to do this. Some people don’t like to have too many bookmakers account or find it difficult to manage but this is a must have even if it’s your only one.

Using Pinnacle Sports is one of best ways to help you profit for gambling so if you don’t have an account be sure to sign up below now!






Finding Value


Finding Value

Finding the magical value is not easy and looking back on my bets since the turn of the year I have clearly managed to find value long term. This doesn’t mean to say that all my bets have been value (including the winning ones) but the important thing is that I’ve found more bets with value than those without it.

I have however had a couple of bets recently where I’ve looked back and decided that the price I got probably wasn’t value. The latest example was Wozniacki at 1.4 (70% probability) against Kerber. It’s impossible to say whether this was the case and it’s easy to beat yourself up about it but the fact of the matter is it lost, it’s one bet and it doesn’t really matter in the scheme of things. I could quite as easily have got 3-1 on Wozniacki, or she could have had 6 match points and still lost but it still would be marked down as a -10 units loss regardless. The problem comes if you are a Kelly Stakes bettor and you made this a 90% bet, then your calculation of this being value would matter long term as you just lost a third of your bank!

The important thing is to learn from the selection you made and perhaps why it might not have been value. In this particular instance, Wozniacki’s form has not been that great and she is not the dominant player of last year. She was also in her home country and if anything the price is likely to be too low because this factor is over emphasised. This is the second time I’ve lost on Wozniacki this year and although I made a fair bit backing her last year. She clearly isn’t performing as well right now and as pointed out by someone on the Betfair forum, the market (including me) still thinks she is.

This week’s prem selections saw a small loss of -14.3 units. There were only 3 qualifying bets out of 6, one of which won convincingly (Man City), one which lost easily (QPR) and one that very nearly game in last night in the draw at Arsenal. We knew Arsenal were too short but thought the draw better value than Wigan because they don’t score many goals and they were away from home. Long term this type of bet is still a good bet and we also still profited because our tip of the day happened to be Wigan +1.5.

The ROI for the prem selections is -47.67% ROI for the ‘week’ and although this sounds bad it’s from a very small sample size (3 matches) and has little effect on the overall ROI which is still 23.08%. To be honest weekly evaluations are pretty meaningless and monthly ones would be more indicative of performance. I will get round to producing these results too at some point.






The Power of Turnover


The Power of Turnover

Whilst I have been trying to make sure my bets have been giving a good ROI and have generated some very impressive results by being pretty selective, I am now starting to appreciate fully the power of turnover. I was aware that the more opportunities you found with value the better but not just how much this can have an effect and as you make more bets the less keeping your ROI matters.

Cassini at GreenAllOver has just discovered that he can make more profit on his XX draw selections by extending the selection criteria to find more qualifying bets, despite a decrease in the ROI figure. He says,

I spent last night in the cells (ok, those of my Excel spreadsheet – someone on Twitter suggested it would make me sound edgy), looking at tweaking the XX Draw Selections to generate more picks, albeit at a lower ROI. The current, let’s call it the ‘Classic’, version has in close to three seasons generated 334 selections, with an estimated profit of 54.05 points, an ROI = 16.18%, while the ‘Expanded’ option under consideration would have generated 1,108 selections for an estimated profit of 125.7 points, and an ROI of 11.35%.

A higher turnover doesn’t always make for more profit but a significant increase in turnover e.g. double will usually mean more profit even with a 5% or so decrease. It’s best to do the maths just as Cassini has done to make sure you know what to expect. For me it may mean generating value selections on the Championship and Leagues 1 and 2 to increase my turnover. At present I don’t know whether I have enough information about these leagues to profit so I would need to trial this first.A higher turnover doesn’t always make for more profit but a significant increase in turnover e.g. double will usually mean more profit even with a 5% or so decrease. It’s best to do the maths just as Cassini has done to make sure you know what to expect. For me it may mean generating value selections on the Championship and Leagues 1 and 2 to increase my turnover. At present I don’t know whether I have enough information about these leagues to profit so I would need to trial this first.

Increasing turnover doesn’t mean to say you should go out and bet on every favourite, every underdog or even every bet you think wins. You should take on any bet that you think has a better chance of winning than the odds on offer suggest. To do this it is very helpful to do the simple calculation:

100 / Odds on Offer = Percentage Chance of Winning

If you believe the selection has a better chance of winning then you should place a bet. Without doing this you can’t expect to be accurate because I don’t know anyone who knows the exact percentage possibility probability of every particular odds range off the top of their head. You should take on any bet that has a positive expectation to the odds on offer (commission accounting too of course). So if a bet is 1.3, this means the market thinks it wins 77% of the time and if you think it wins 78 times out of 100 then you take that bet! Of course you have to think theoretically and imagine this event was played out 100 times with exactly the same conditions and factors involved.

Remember however that most of the time each bookmakers book adds up to 98% at best and so it’s hard to find value over an increased amount of markets but by at least taking the best price on offer you give yourself a better chance of finding it or at least betting at the correct price as the best prices on offer per market across bookies usually add up to 100%.

Plenty of talking points from the weekends Sport. A goal that never was in the FA cup and a close finish in the Grand National with 2 horses dying. Profit wise it was uneventful overall as I made money on Chelsea qualifying and got my money back in the national but had a couple of bets that lost on the tennis. I have to admit that I didn’t enjoy watching the National this year as it looked like there were going to be bad falls at every fence. Maybe this is me getting sensitive in my old age but I do think they need to make the fences smaller and perhaps have less runners but you have to accept that horses will always die in racing with or without fences or less runners and that’s part and parcel of the sport and life in general.






Grand National 2012


Grand National 2012

Just a quick post to let you know what my picks are for the Grand National are. I am going for Seabass  at 14-1and Killyglen at 18-1 both Each Way. Paddy Power are paying 5 places and Sporting bet 6 so be sure to place your bet with one of these. Horse racing is known to be corrupt at times and they’ll hopefully be something fishy about this one too.
Shakalakaboomboom has come in from 20-1 to 10-1 because everyman and his dog are on this one. Pure mug punting at it’s finest if you ask me but then again any bet made on this race is really and my bets on this are very small and I don’t expect to see a return to be honest but it would be nice!






Unbelievable Profits!


Unbelievable Profits!

Wow what a week for my premier league selections. I was happy enough to get one 9-1 winner but 2 in the same week with extra profit from Arsenal and Liverpool to boot, well I never imagined that happening. That makes the total profit for this week 175 units a return of 175%. This is almost 3 times the highest weekly return so far and brings the overall profit above 300 units and is a 24.82% Return On Investment. We’ve now had 3 winning weeks in a row now! See the results in their full glory here:
Remember we only starting recording the bookies best odds half way through and so this figure would almost certainly be slightly better if we always took the best odds since the start or paid the lowest rate of commission (2%) at Betfair.
Whilst I’m unbelievably happy with these results and figures, I’m not stupid enough to think they will continue. Even if I am to continue making a profit this week and next it’s almost certain that this overall figure of 25% will go down. When I started these selections I was convinced I could beat the odds by 5% and hoped for 10 but 25% is out of this world and I’m almost certain unsustainable. If I can keep above the 10% figure long term I will be happy and anything else is a welcome bonus.
My tip of the day is also firing on all cylinders with 10 wins out of the last 11 and an ROI for that of 18.93%. Again anything above 10% is what I’m hoping to achieve long term so I’m more than meeting my own expectations currently. Now that I bet using level stakes and I know what sort of returns are possible I am more than happy with results such as these. A year or two ago I wouldn’t have appreciated such returns from the stakes used and would have had no idea what my ROI was after a long winning streak and when I eventually did hit a loser I would more than likely chase or place a panic bet.
I think no matter how you bet it’s important to see how your betting is performing to what’s realistically possible long term and this is why keeping records and analysing them is crucial. This way when you do go on a long winning run and then hit one very bad loss, you may see that you are still achieving a very impressive ROI and such a loss was always going to be inevitable. For example sometimes I would start off with a £100 and turn it into £200 only to get down in the dumps about then losing £30, but I had just doubled my bank in 3 weeks! I now appreciate just how hard this is to achieve and that if you are risking such a large percentage of your balance swings like this are inevitable.
Anyway on to this week’s selections and it looks like this is going to be a bit dull in comparison after 3 straight weeks of huge profits. There are only 6 games and apparently I agree with the market on 3 of them! Don’t think this is me playing it safe after last week as I do my percentages before I find out what the odds available are.
If we don’t profit this week don’t lose heart or faith as even if we lose on all 3 matches this week we are still doing well. Remember, to think short term is a mug mentality! I’ve corrected some of the weekly figures in the summary below. This was nothing major and didn’t affect overall results but sometimes it’s hard to keep track of where one week starts and the other ends. I try to class a week as a full fixture list of 10 matches or a group of matches spread over 2 or 3 days. Like I said, this week there is only 6. Good luck with all your bets this weekend.

 

Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
Norwich
Man City
Man City
1.57
Sunderland
Wolves
NONE
N/A
Swansea
Blackburn
NONE
N/A
West Brom
QPR
QPR
3.6
Man Utd
Aston Villa
NONE
N/A
Arsenal
Wigan
Draw
6

Weekly Summary:

Week
Units staked
P/L
ROI
1
100
49.44
49.44%
2
100
54.41
54.41%
3
90
-43.21
-48.01%
4
100
15.03
15.03%
5
100
-9.11
-9.11%
6
70
-11.34
-16.19%
7
100
15.50
15.50%
8
90
-14.70
-16.33%
9
90
40.60
45.11%
10
100
-13.00
-13.00%
11
100
29.50
29.50%
12
80
42.70
53.38%
13
100
147.00
147.00%
TOTAL
1220
302.82
24.82%