Monthly Archives: March 2012


The best bets find you


The best bets find you

With the Internet and smart phones making it so easy to bet these days many of us undoubtedly place more bets than we should. If you have an edge the more bets the better but the more bets you make with bookies or exchanges the smaller the chances of your edge holding up and staying in profit because of the built in overround or commission. I’m sure we all feel we would make more if we were more selective and thinking about this the other day I realised that all the best bets actually find me and if I stuck to only these my profit levels would be much more significant.

Most of these bets that have stood out to me have been very strong favourites but they’re not all ridiculously short and they are bets that I know immediately I must make. Some are so high profile that I knew of them already and some pointed out by tipsters but the key is that I know instantly that they are good bets and didn’t have to research for them. I thought back to the last couple of years of betting and bets of this type that have called out to me and I came up with the following: Man United to beat Wolves (1.34) Taylor to beat Painter (1.17), Barcelona to beat Man United (evens), Nadal to beta Berdych (1.37), Haye to beat Harrison (1.2) and there are many more that I have forgotten. When I thought about these bets where there is such a strong feeling that they come to me, I realised I have barely had a loser!

The daily bets that I go searching for or that have been tipped up by other tipsters may be good but I’m never as confident with these so stakes aren’t ever that high and this makes them pretty insignificant if I’m betting more on the bets that call out to me. If I stopped faffing and having daily bets on everything I would free up much more time and it would allow more cash at my disposal to bet big when one of these bets comes along.

My tip of the day has had a bit of a poor spell recently and after a few losers and a few void matches the profit has decreased somewhat but it’s still showing 7% ROI and the Prem Selections are also in profit at 8.04%. These figures aren’t too shabby at all and if we were to stay in the 5-10% range or more I will be very happy. Profiting from gambling is not easy especially when trying to find a tip every day and betting on the biggest, most popular football league in the world!

Here are this week’s prem selections followed by the week by week summary:

Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Chelsea
1.85
Everton
West Brom
West Brom
4.75
Fulham
Norwich
Norwich
5.5
Man City
Sunderland
Draw
6.5
QPR
Arsenal
Arsenal
1.62
Wigan
Stoke
Stoke
2.8
Wolves
Bolton
Bolton
3.2
Newcastle
Liverpool
Liverpool
2.5
Tottenham
Swansea
Swansea
9
Blackburn
Man Utd
Man Utd
1.4

Summary:


Week 1 -> 55.20 Units profit (55.2% ROI) 
Week 2 -> 59.90 Units profit (59.9% ROI)
Week 3 -> -41.80 Units profit (-46.44% ROI)
Week 4 -> 19.50 Units profit (19.5.% ROI)
Week 5 -> -5.9 Units profit (-5.9% ROI)
Week 6 -> -9.3 Units profit (-13.29% ROI)
Week 7 -> 15.5 Units profit (15.5% ROI)
Week 8 -> -14.70 Units profit (-16.33% ROI)
Week 9 -> 40.60  Units profit (40.11% ROI)
Week10 -> -13.00  Units profit (-13% ROI)
Overall -> 83.62 Units profit (8.90% ROI)






The Key to Successful Trading


The Key to Successful Trading

Whilst trading the tennis the other day I was reminded how important it is to try and predict what the market will do as opposed to predicting the outcome of the event. This was during the tennis match between John Isner and Novak Djokovic. The first set went to a tie break and I thought Isner looked great value as Djokovic was struggling to break him and getting very frustrated and so I backed Isner when a mini break up. The market must have assumed he had the set in the bag and he did go on to win it but as soon as the next set started Isner’s price actually crept up rather than went smaller.
I realised that the market were pretty clear about thinking a Djokovic comeback was on the cards and as Isner wasn’t gaining hardly any points on Djokovic’s serve, I realised that there was a very good chance of seeing much shorter prices on Djokovic and so I switched my position completely. Djokovic went on to break Isner and win the set and I was able to trade out. Incidentally Isner went on to win the match and so my initial feeling of the value being with Isner was right but the way the market was and based on what could still happen with plenty of time left, it made more sense to back Djokovic. This is because the market strongly believed he would come back and after making it 1-1, their opinion was reinforced and I think Djokovic traded as low as 1.25.
My top 3 tips for trading are:
1)   Get your trades in early when prices have diverged from the start price and with plenty of the match to be played

2)   Think about where a price is based on where it has been in the match and where it might go in the future.

3)   Always make your trades considering what the market is most likely to do and not what you think will happen
Follow the above and it’s pretty easy to profit from trading as long as you aren’t too greedy. Remember you are looking to trade between the high and low points of the graph in terms of where the odds of been so learn to be happy with smaller swings. They are much easier to consistently predict and carry much less risk.






Risk v Reward


Risk v Reward

I’ve often heard it said that people who only make a small percentage by betting aren’t taking enough risk and whilst it’s true that by taking more risk on higher priced bets that have value that there’ll be more opportunities to make bigger money, the variance on these bets is greater and you have to be patient through long losing spells. By taking the best prices on offer with bookmakers it’s achievable to profit at level stakes no matter what type of odds you go for but by taking odds on events where there is more uncertainty you will have bad losing spells.
I have recently found that my gambling is more suited to steady increases and fewer losses even though my overall profit could potentially be less and so I am going to be concentrating my bets on the lower end of the odds spectrum. Odds on if you like. In general there will be less value at this end of the odds spectrum because they are easier to price up but if you are selective you can still find value and together with achieving the best price (until you get limited) you can make good steady profits. You can also use bigger stakes because the losing streaks are not as bad.
It’s the same story with trading. I have often believed it when people say that if you let your entry trade run and take more risk you would make more profit but I wouldn’t have put such a large stake into the market in the first place if I wasn’t trading. There will also be times where I will get it wrong and endure long losing streaks which I don’t get when trading.
By taking more risk it may be possible to make better returns long term but I’m happy to take less risk from now on and have more consistent returns, knowing what I’m likely to expect. As is often said, do what’s making you the money and forget the rest. So short price favs and tennis trading only from now on for me!
By the way, although I am going to continue the premier league value selections I probably won’t be adding them in a blog post, together with reasoning and screen shots. I haven’t had much feedback about the selections so I feel like it’s a bit of a waste of time. They are showing a profit of just short of 10% though now after a 54% ROI this weekend and I will continue to update the spreadsheet prior to the matches so you can still check them there if you wish.





Creating your own luck


Creating your own luck

I came across an article the other day and I thought it made a good point about creating your own luck which is quite appropraite for St. Patrick’s day! All the people that I consider lucky put themselves in situations where being lucky is possible and they are also very positive people. Lucky people aren’t reckless, they generally play things quite safe but if an opportunity arises they strike and with so much positivity that it has a greater chance of paying off. When they do get lucky they shout about it a lot more than most would and everyone hears about it so it seems that they get luckier than they do. When they do lose they don’t beat themselves up about it. Here’s the article:

As someone who has studied this phenomenon, I happen to believe that people can actually make their own luck. Lucky people tend to generate their own luck by following four basic principles:

1. They are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportunities. 2. They listen to their intuition. 3. They create self fulfilling prophecies by having positive expectations 4. They adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck to good.

Unlucky people miss chance opportunities because they are too focused on looking for something else. Take gambling for example they look for ways to make a fortune as fast as possible and so squander the opportunity to to make a good steady income from the game.

Lucky people are more relaxed, more open and therefore see what there is there rather than just what they are looking for. So you can think yourself lucky! I should know as changing my personal thinking pattern transformed my gambling and turned me from just another punter looking for fast easy cash into a steady winner making money from something I love. You could say…. I am a lucky B*****d! So could you, why not give some of the principles a try?

I also think this raised an interesting point about finding your own way and playing what’s there rather than looking for hard and fast rules. I myself have done really well with tennis trading but I will often look around for other ways to do well e.g. tipsters to follow or other methods that others are becoming successful with. Low and behold you start following a tipster when he’s on a bad run or you don’t put enough on winners because you don’t fully trust them or because your heart isn’t in it.

That’s not to say that you can’t make money following tipsters and that you shouldn’t but it’s important to follow all the sections, with stake s that are recommended and to keep these funds away from the ones used in your own betting. If you don’t it becomes very difficult to keep track of how well the tipster and you are doing especially when you hit an inevitable losing streak. You need to have confidence in future tips during the bad spells and looking back and seeing a positive record will help with this. You’ll probably do a lot better finding your own way to bet and you’ll certainly find t more enjoyable and rewarding. As the Levellers once famous sang “There’s only one way of life, and that’s your own.”

Only 4 premier League games this weekend with other fixtures being played on Tues and Wednesday. Fulham v Swansea is a tricky one to call. Fulham have been incredible at home winning 8 out of their last 9 and Swansea haven’t been great away from home despite being excellent at home themselves. However, Swansea are proving that they are a very good team and they do go for wins away from home so I think the price on them is a bit too big. WBA look a decent price away at Wigan who can’t score for toffee at the moment and I don’t expect that to change soon. WBA won’t have as potent a goal threat without Owdemwinge but the WBA draw no bet odds look decent at just short of even money.

On Sunday, United are an absolute banker at Wolves. 1.36 may seem low for an away team but right now I’d almost be willing to back anyone against Wolves at any price, well almost! Newcastle v Norwich is tough to call and Newcastle haven’t been as good defensively without Taylor and Norwich beat them 5-2 earlier in the season so the value is with them for me. Be lucky!

Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
Fulham
Swansea
Wigan
West Brom
Wolves
Man Utd
Newcastle
Norwich






Coping with Losing Bets


Coping with Losing Bets

Luckily I’ve not had too many losing bets recently and each loss has generally been followed by a handful of winners but I am weary that a bad spell may just be around the corner. It’s funny how a loss can affect you when really it shouldn’t matter that much at all. Win or lose you will still need to find winners in the future and as long as your stake isn’t a sensible % of your bank then it shouldn’t affect the stake of your next bet.

It’s usually a problem for people who are trying to build a small bank into a big one as you feel that the funds you have available aren’t sufficient, so you’re over staking and each loss hits you hard. It will probably cause you to chase and lose even more. I’ve been there and done it myself in the past, even when losing as little as £5! The funny thing is I always had enough money to allow me to stick in another £20 into my account and pretend it never happened but irrational behaviour takes over.

I recently read of someone who had an edge of 5% around the even money mark and was able to double his bank every year. Despite this his bank would only reach a new high 5% of the time so on average after each 19 of 20 bets his bank would be lower than it had been previously. Food for thought maybe.

Last night’s lay of Liverpool didn’t go too well. Liverpool didn’t surprise me with how well they played but they did surprise me by scoring 3 goals. Yet again Carol and Suarez couldn’t hot a barn door despite some really good play and if it wasn’t for Stevie G’s much more composed finishing then it would have been a lot closer score line wise.

At least bet365 are softening the blow with a free £50 in play bet today! It’s available on tonight’s Champion’s League game between Chelsea and Napoli. To claim your £50 free bet all you need to do is place a £50 pre match bet on the game. Then in running place another £50 bet on any of the in-play markets and if that loses bet365 will refund your stake.

Finally, as Betfair are disregarding their forum (or community as they call it) in favour of the lucrative ‘Super Slots’, how about a visit and a post at Betfair Banter instead 😀






Liverpool v Everton Preview


Liverpool v Everton Preview

So it’s the big Merseyside Derby tonight and it’s all to play for with Everton having the chance to leapfrog Liverpool should they win. Liverpool’s form hasn’t been great despite winning the Carling cup and Everton are on a great run. Liverpool aren’t scoring goals very easily despite some decent performances and Everton are not a team that concede many either. Liverpool have won only once in the last 6 games and Everton are undefeated in their last 6, winning 3 and drawing 3.

As much a nuisance Suarez is, I just don’t think he is prolific enough. He has a lot of talent but his finishing is just not there for me at the minute. I think I saw a stat recently that confirmed he scores once every 10 or 15 shots, not a great ratio. With Liverpool struggling for goals and Everton keen to defend, a low scoring affair is certain and a draw the most likely result. Either team could nick it by a goal and so you’d have to say Everton were the value. I’ve gone for a lay as my tip of the day to play it a bit more cautiously.

My prem selections didn’t quite produce the mega profits that I expected over the weekend despite getting off to a decent start with wins for Blackburn at Wolves and Sunderland at home to Liverpool. I just didn’t seem to get the rub of the green and both QPR and Fulham were extremely unlucky to lose in my opinion. Level stakes made a loss of 16.33% based on the best odds available but on the plus side the Kelly stakes returned 31.44% profit! This was because the 2 wins I did get were 2 of the 3 big bets that week and were the ones with the most edge on the odds available. Kelly has now overtaken level stakes and if it keeps it up I am going to have to seriously consider using these stakes for my actual bets. Level stakes is showing a 7.47% profit with Kelly at 10.45%.

Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
Liverpool
Everton
Everton
5.5





Premier League Selections (Week 8)


Premier League Selections (Week 8)

This weekend is going to be one of mega profit, I’m sure of it! There’s some absolutely huge prices and the market is a fair bit out on a lot of prices. First of all, you’d have to fancy either QPR or Fulham to win away at Bolton and Aston Villa respectively and as both are odds of 3+ these should give us a profit. Then you have Chelsea v Stoke where the draw looks pretty tasty at 5. Chelsea have been struggling for goals and Stoke are renowned for making it difficult. I wouldn’t back Wolves against anyone in this league right now especially at odds just short of evens and so Blackburn are my pick there. Sunderland have the quality to upset a hit and miss Liverpool side who despite showing promise also struggle for goals and don’t know how to win games easily this season. Tottenham v Everton is a tough one to call but considering the season these two have had Tottenham are a decent price.

On to Sunday and I can’t see any value in the Swansea v Man City game so we’re leaving that alone but  like the price of the draw in the United v West Brom match which is available at 5.9! West Brom are in a rich vein of form and will be full of confidence after hammering Sunderland and beating Chelsea last week. They’ve been good defensively all season and a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline wouldn’t surprise me.I;m hoping that there might be a shock or two and have plumped for WIgan to beta Norwich and Newcastle to beat Arsenal. Newcastle have been a bit dodgy of late but odds of 7.8 are surely too big for a team that boasts one of the most potent strike forces in the league in Ba and Cisse and considering the defensive frailties of Arsenal. Good luck with all your bets!

http://www.betfairbanter.com/PremierLeagueBets.xlsx

Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
Bolton
QPR
QPR
Aston Villa
Fulham
Fulham
 3
Chelsea
Stoke
Draw
Wolves
Blackburn
Blackburn
Sunderland
Liverpool
Sunderland
Everton
Tottenham
Tottenham
Man Utd
West Brom
Draw
6
Swansea
Man City
NONE
Norwich
Wigan
Wigan
Arsenal
Newcastle
Newcastle
8





Getting the Best Odds


Getting the Best Odds

I have recently realised just how much a difference getting the best available odds makes. This week’s Prem Selections showed a 11.73% ROI on level stakes. Not too shabby after predicting wins for Swansea, West Brom, Fulham and Man United. This 11.73% was based on the odds available on Betfair and including the maximum commission rate of 5% but if we had placed each bet with the bookmaker offering the best odds the return would have been 15.5%! A difference of 4 or 5% could work out to be quite a lot of cash in the long term. (See this week’s Premier League Selection results here by the way: Premier League Selections)

What I also realised was that these odds were actually slightly less than what Betfair had available but when you factor in the maximum commission of 5% the Betfair odds work out less value. It seems that many of the popular markets are set based on those who have the lowest commission rates i.e. 2% and that makes sense really.

It did get me wondering though whether each time Betfair quote that they had x amount of markets at better prices than other bookmakers whether this includes the deduction of the maximum commission of 5%. This is also quite topical because Betfair are apparently bringing out their own oddschecker type functionality called “Betfair Everywhere” that lets them see just who is offering the best odds on your selection, much to the disgruntlement of the bookmakers. Whether they show Betfair prices still after the maximum commission of 5% is deducted and makes the price worse than others, remains to be seen. Or perhaps this is for the markets they themselves are looking to lay in as they have proposed and if this means that we get better than bookmakers prices on more of these markets then that would be great. I would be very interested to hear from anyone who has more information about how any of this will work.

Of course getting the best odds is not always such a simple decision. For my daily singles e.g. the bets you see on tip of the day, I am going to find the best possible price as my stake is always the same and it should be pretty easy to manage. But my premier league selections often require 10 bets at once and having these 10 bets all with different bookies could make it time consuming to place and difficult to keep track off. What if you do terribly badly with one bookie and you need to transfer money from another to get funds back in? There will be delays in getting funds in and out and you basically have to make sure your stakes are thin enough in relation to your total funds to allow you to deposit with all the bookmakers.

I will therefore be keeping my Premier League bets with Betfair because of this. I always said I wanted to prove it could be done on Betfair too. I also use Betfair for trading too and also for any bets that I might be looking to lay off in if I’m watching the match and things turn against me but for my tip of the day I will now be making sure I get the best price available. So as you can see deciding to use the best price available will undoubtedly improve your results but it may not always be viable or at least easy to manage. It very much depends on your style of betting, the funds you have available and how organised you are!






Premier League Selections (Week 7)


Premier League Selections (Week 7)

I have some bad news regarding the Premier League Value Selections! It turns out that commission wasn’t being accounted for and so the profit is slightly less than what was recorded. This has taken us down from 13.86 to 9.86%. Commission was being used in the Kelly stake calculation but I then had to update the sheet to make sure the profit totals deducted commission again as it wasn’t do this previously. The good news though is that I have been monitoring bookies prices and there is always a better price than Betfair available on these selections when commission is factored in so the 15% is still achievable and possibly more so. I have added a column to the spread sheet called ‘best odds’ which is going to keep track of the best price available on our selection. I have also added a total to keep track of the level stakes profit against these prices.
I haven’t added it for Kelly stakes because the Kelly stakes are worked out against Betfair prices currently and I’m not going to change this. It would be unlikely to actually change who we bet on anyway. The majority of my betting is done on Betfair and stakes are not limited here and so I want to prove that it’s possible on Betfair using big money. It would be unadvisable to start betting random amounts at the bookies too as they have been known to get suspicious and either limit players or close accounts that do this. If you do want to improve profits by betting with the bookies and you are good at managing several different bookies accounts then by all means take the best price available as it will improve profitability further.
So on to this weekend’s action then. Man City look a banker at Bolton but I can’t be backing 1.15 as there is no value long term and the draw looks huge at 10!. Liverpool v Arsenal is an interesting one as both teams fortunes have changed recently with cup success for Liverpool and Arsenal’s great Derby comeback last week. Spurs v Man Utd should be a good game too and I really fancy the professional approach and experience of United to prevail in this one. Here are all the selections:

Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
03-Mar-12
Liverpool
Arsenal
Liverpool
2.1
03-Mar-12
Blackburn
Aston Villa
Blackburn
2.4
03-Mar-12
Man City
Bolton
Draw
9.5
03-Mar-12
QPR
Everton
Everton
2.4
03-Mar-12
Stoke
Norwich
Norwich
4.5
03-Mar-12
West Brom
Chelsea
West Brom
4.33
03-Mar-12
Wigan
Swansea
Swansea
3.1
04-Mar-12
Newcastle
Sunderland
Sunderland
3.75
04-Mar-12
Fulham
Wolves
Fulham
1.62
04-Mar-12
Tottenham
Man Utd
Man Utd
2.5